Forex Blog

Dollar was losing against the euro during the first half of the trading session today but managed to regain it’s position after some important fundamental reports were released in United States. The negative values in the reports made traders to go for the «safer» dollar. EUR/USD is now trading near 1.4042.

S&P/Case-Shiller seasonally adjusted home price index for the 20 U.S. states declined by 18.1% in April compared to the last year, following 18.7% drop in March. The average forecast for this index yearly change was at -18.63%.

Consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped at a very fast pace — to 49.3 in June from 54.8 in May. It was expected to go up to 55.3.

Chicago PMI business barometer index rose from 34.9 to 39.9 in June. It exceeded the median forecast of 39 for this indicator.

The dollar fell at a fastest pace in 3 weeks against the euro today as the Q1 GDP decline was reported to be not so bad as expected. EUR/USD is now trading near 1.4114 and technical analysis shows that it will probably continue to grow at least until 1.4350 in the next few weeks.

Preliminary GDP report for the first quarter of 2009 showed a decline by 5.7% — better than the 6.3% drop that was reported in the advance report a month ago. Market analysts expected a revision to -5.5%.

Chicago PMI index unexpectedly decreased from 40.1 to 34.9 in May. The traders expected a growth to 42.

Michigan Sentiment index rose to 68.7 in May from 65.1 in April. It was expected to be reported at 68.0.

EUR/USD spiked up during the early trading session reaching as high as 1.3385 (the highest level since April 13) after opening at 1.3256 but after the fundamental reports in U.S. showed that the world’s biggest economy is stalling the currency pair rolled back below the daily open level. It’s now trading near 1.3244.

Initial jobless claims decreased from 345k (revised up from 340k) to 331k last week, which is slightly better than the previously expected 340k value.

Personal income fell by 0.3% in March, following 0.2% decline in February. It was expected to fall also by 0.2% this time. Personal spending decreased by 0.2% in March after rising by 0.4% in February (revised up from 0.2% growth). A decline by 0.1% was in the forecasts.

Chicago PMI Business Barometer index went up from 31.4 to 40.1 in April. According to the median forecast it should have increased only to 34.

EUR/USD rose today in a correction movement after three days of declining. Dollar was hurt by the unexpectedly revived interest in the stock markets and even the not-so-good reports released today couldn’t make euro to fall against it. EUR/USD is now trading near 1.3238.

Consumer confidence index rose from 25.3 to 26 in March — lower than the traders have expected (27).

Chicago PMI index went down from 34.2 to 31.4 in March — the lowest reading since July 1980. It was expected to go up to 34.7.

EUR/USD continued to fall today for the fourth straight day as the advance GDP report for the fourth quarter showed a considerable decline of the economic output in U.S. The currency pair is currently trading near 1.2795.

GDP (advance) in the Q4 of 2008 decreased at an annual rate of 3.8%. The decline followed 0.5% contraction in the third quarter, but was significantly below the estimated 5.4% drop.

Chicago PMI declined from 35.1 to 33.3 in January, while a drop only to 34.9 was expected by the market participants.

Michigan Sentiment Index rose above the previous month’s value of 60.1 (which was revised down from 61.9) in January and was reported at 61.2. The average forecast for this index was at 61.9 for January.

EUR/USD declined today after rising for three consecutive days as many macroeconomic reports were released in the United States. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.2939 after reach as high as 1.3080 yesterday.

Durable goods orders decreased by 6.2% in October after declining by 0.2% in September (revised down from the 0.8% gain). The orders were expected to decline by no more than 2.5%.

Initial jobless claims declined to 529,000 last week after being reported at 543,000 (revised up from 542,000) a week before. They declined by a little more than the analysts expected.

Personal income rose by 0.3% in October after gaining 0.1% in September (revised down from the 0.2% increase). It was expected to gain 0.1% in October. Personal spendings decreased as expected — by 1%, following the 0.3% decline in September.

Chicago PMI fell to the lowest level since April 1982 in November — from 37.8 to 33.8. According to the median forecast by the market analysts it should have risen to 38.5.

University of Michigan consumer confidence index slid from 57.6 (revised down from 57.9) to 55.3 in November — only 3.6 index points above its absolute minimum level recorded in May 1980. Forecasts show that the traders expected the index to go up to 58.0.

New home sales decreased to an annually adjusted rate of 433,000 in October down from 457,00 in September (revised down from 464,000). Market participants expected a decline to 450,000.

U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 7.3 million barrels during the last week. This growth followed 1.6 million barrels increase recorded a week before.

EUR/USD dropped today for the second day despite the correctional wave that was forming during the last three days. After peaking at 1.3288 yesterday, the currency pair is now trading near 1.2733 as the traders continue to dump other currencies and buy U.S. dollars.

U.S. personal income rose by 0.2% in September, following 0.4% increase in August and slightly above 0.1% forecast. Personal spending decreased faster than the analytics expected — by 0.3% instead of 0.2%. This decline followed the stagnation in August.

Chicago PMI declined at a surprisingly fast pace in October — from 56.7 to 37.8. Market analytics forecasted a drop 48.0.

Michigan Sentiment Index dropped from 70.3 to 57.6 in October, which is slightly above 57.5 forecast value.

EUR/USD fell today at a fastest daily pace since the early September as the fundamentals in U.S. came out at a better than expected level today, spurring both U.S. stock market and dollar rallies. EUR/USD lost almost 300 pips today and is currently trading near 1.4129 level.

Chicago PMI, indicating the business confidence, dropped from 57.9 to 56.7 in September — that’s not a bad result, considering the average forecast of 54.0 for this index.

Consumer confidence index, measured by the Conference Board, rose from 58.5 to 59.8 this month, bringing a very positive surprise to the dollar and U.S. stocks bulls. The median forecast for this index September’s value was at 55.0. The continuous growing of the confidence indicators from the month of June, signal that the recession in U.S. isn’t strong enough and will probably disappear soon.

EUR/USD soared up today immediately after the report on advance GDP figures for the second quarter of 2008 came out in U.S. It disappointed the investors and is currently pressing on the greenback. Employment data also came out much worse than the majority of the traders expected today. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.5633 level after reaching as high as 1.5700 in early trading after GDP report.

Advance GDP growth in the second quarter of 2008 was reported to be 1.9%. Although it’s better than 1% growth in Q1, it’s much worse than the expected 2.3% growth for the second quarter.

Initial jobless claims were at 448,000 last week — the growth from 404,000 claims a week before. Average forecast for the last week was 395,000.

Chicago PMI rose from 49.6 to 50.8 in July. It was forecast3ed to decline to 49.0 this month. It was the first growth posted by this indicator in last five months.

The dollar traded with an elevated volatility against the euro today, going both high above the opening level and diving down below it. The overall fundamental background is positive for the greenback today. Yesterday’s report on Chicago PMI index also supported the U.S. currency. Currently EUR/USD is trading near its open level at 1.5754.

Total construction spending in May was down 0.4% after 0.1% decline in April (revised down from 0.4% decline) — that’s not very good itself, but the markets awaited at least 0.6% drop in the spending, so this result may even benefit dollar bulls on Forex.

ISM report on manufacturing sector — PMI index — was very positive for June. It rose up from 49.6% to 50.2%, while a decline to 48.6% was expected. Growing PMI is another signal of the recovering economy despite the declining housing market.

Chicago PMI report for June was released yesterday and it showed a growth from 49.1% to 49.6% in the purchasing managers’ sentiment. The consesus forecast for the report was a decline to 48.0%.