The Chinese yuan is spiking on Thursday after President Donald Trump tweeted that the US and China are “very close to a big deal.” Mirroring the financial markets, the yuan pared its earlier losses and is rallying on the news. The yuan could end the week higher following this week’s upbeat economic data. But could the yuan exit the 7 territory against the US dollar to close out the year?
The Chinese yuan is trading slightly lower against multiple currencies to kick off the trading week. The yuan’s performance on Monday was driven by the latest disappointing trade numbers that suggest Beijing is still reeling from the US-China trade dispute. This might explain why, according to Chinese government officials, the world’s second-largest economy wants to settle phase one of a deal.
The US dollar performed very poorly last week despite the better-than-expected employment report. This week will have a couple important macroeconomic releases as well as a monetary policy meeting of the US central bank. Yet it is very likely that factors outside of the United States will have a bigger impact on the greenback.
The euro today rallied briefly against the US dollar in the early European session before giving up its gains as the greenback recovered to post gains. The EUR/USD currency pair traded near its monthly lows as the pair seemed set to close the month with significant losses as compared to the gains recorded in October.
The Mexican peso is strengthening against several currency pairs on Thursday, despite doubts over the trade agreement between the US, Mexico, and Canada. The peso is gaining on expectations of modest third-quarter growth and it is still getting a boost from the central bank recently cutting interest rates.
The Japanese yen was rising intraday on the persisting concerns about the US-China trade talks. But currently, the yen has fallen against all other most-traded rivals. Domestic macroeconomic data could not be blamed for the fall as today’s report was rather good.
The Canadian dollar is weakening midweek as new manufacturing sales data and a cautious Bank of Canada (BoC) put pressure on the loonie. While the financial market is nearing all-time highs, the national economy is not experiencing the same level of success. Overall, the Canadian economy remains anemic, but the central bank did note that has the tools to accommodate and prevent further weakness.
The euro rose against other most-traded currencies today even after a report confirmed that eurozone inflation slowed last month. It looks like the market sentiment is recovering as riskier currencies are gaining upward momentum, while safer ones seem to be under pressure.
The Australian dollar fell sharply against all of its most-traded rivals today after employment data came out much worse than was expected. Analysts argued that the negative data bolstered the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower interest rates to new record lows. Disappointing macroeconomic indicators in China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, weakened the currency further.
The New Zealand dollar fell against all other most-traded currencies today, even its Australian counterpart, which was rather weak itself. While deteriorating inflation expectations were one of the possible reasons for the decline, the major driver for the currency was the negative monetary policy outlook.
