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AUD/NZD Towards 1.0826?

January 13, 2021 at 5:29 by Dorin Rosu

The Australian versus the New Zealand dollar currency pair seems to be sustained by the bullish optimism, thus climbing toward 1.0826. Are the bears nearby?

Long-term perspective

After falling from the 1.1043 high, an event that catalyzed the false piercing of the firm 1.0983 resistance area, the price started a descending trend.

Even if the bulls attempted comebacks around important areas, such as 1.0826 and 1.0707, respectively, the bears put them to respect, continuing their whereabouts until the 1.0418 low.

However, the bulls made sure that 1.0418 would be part of an inverted head and shoulders — which rests with the left-side shoulder on the intermediary level of 1.0474 and with the right-side one defining the 1.0513 low.

After piercing the head and shoulder’s neckline, a role taken by the 1.0551 level, the price climbed until the 1.0707 area. It appeared that the bears wanted to reenact their previous victory from this level, as the 1.0721 high points out.

Nevertheless, the bulls turned the retracement attempt from 1.0707 to a condensed consolidation phase, one that allowed 1.0707 to be pierced.

As the price departs from 1.0707 and as the bulls are on their path to check the next level that they previously strived for, that is 1.0826, two main scenarios could unfold.

In the first one, the price enters a short-lived consolidation phase, such as a pennant or a flag, and then aims for 1.0826.

The second scenario is for a retracement that validates 1.0707 as support. However, this opens the door for the bears to send the price beneath the level. This is an outcome that, if materialized, paves the way to the 1.0631 intermediary level.

Short-term perspective

From the 1.0513 low, the price climbed above the 1.0621 intermediary level, beginning a consolidation phase above it.

However, the consolidation soon found a new support, the higher 1.0681. This allowed the bulls to spring the price above 1.0741, an unfolding that gained momentum.

So, as long as 1.0741 remains support, 1.0778 is the next level to be validated — as support. If this happens, 1.0820 is the next target.

Only a fall beneath 1.0741 may trigger further decline, with 1.0681 being the first support for such a context.

Levels to keep an eye on:

D1: 1.0707 1.0826 1.0631
H4: 1.0741 1.0778 1.0820 1.0681

If you have any questions, comments, or opinions regarding the Technical Analysis, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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