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Battle on AUD/NZD at the 1.0707 Area?

January 6, 2021 at 3:34 by Dorin Rosu

The Australian versus the New Zealand dollar currency pair seems to be caught in the middle. Is there any hint about the next possible movement?

Long-term perspective

From the 1.0566 low, the price accelerated to the 1.1043 high. As the bulls extended a little too fast and a little too much, the bears ironed out the tired bulls by rendering 1.1043 as a false piercing of the 1.0983 firm resistance area.

This is how the descending trend started. It continued with each bullish effort ending up as a new opportunity for the bears to join the market at better prices, as the series of falling lows and peaks point out.

The declining trend extended until the 1.0418 low, where it ended aided by the inverted head and shoulders with the head labeled by the low, the left-side shoulder resting on the 1.0474 intermediate level, the right-side shoulder noted by the 1.0513 low, and the neckline placed at 1.0551.

The pattern allowed the price to go thru the upper line of the descending channel with relative ease, stopping at the 1.0707 firm zone. From there, the bears attempted to do what they considered best, that is, validating 1.0707 as resistance.

For a relatively brief moment, they obtained their victory, but the intermediary level of 1.0631 stalled their plans, as it was validated as support and crafted a rise that defined the 1.0721 high.

So, one possible scenario is for the price to start ranging between 1.0707 and 1.0631. Of course, if the bulls win, then the path to 1.0826 is open. On the flip side, if the flat ends in favor of the bears, then 1.0551 is the next objective.

Still, another scenario may unfold as the continuation of the appreciation that came about after 1.0631 was confirmed as support. It targets, after 1.0707 is verified as support, the same 1.0826.

Short-term perspective

The rise that started from the 1.0418 extended until the 1.0714 high before ceding to the deeper correction that crafted the 1.0627 low.

Nevertheless, from the 1.0627 low, the bulls were able to make the 1.0721 higher high and stabilize the price above 1.0681.

So, if 1.0681 is not invalidated in the meantime, it may be considered that the price already is underway to the next objective 1.0741, which, if conquered, exposes 1.0778.

Only if 1.0681 gives way, the 1.0621 is to be paid a visit.

Levels to keep an eye on:

D1: 1.0707 1.0631 1.0826 1.0551
H4: 1.0681 1.0741 1.0778 1.0621

If you have any questions, comments, or opinions regarding the Technical Analysis, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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