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Bulls Back on Track on USD/JPY from 104.00?

September 25, 2020 at 4:40 by Dorin Rosu

The US dollar versus the Japanese yen currency pair seems to have recovered, as it oscillates above the 105.09 level. Should the bulls buy it!?

Long-term perspective

The fall from the 111.71 high had given the bears a good opportunity, as the series of lower highs and lower lows suggests. So, they had taken their chance and, driven by conviction, crafted the 104.00 low.

This is their second attempt to establish their dominance under the firm 105.09 support, as it can be seen by glimpsing at the 104.18 low.

The first time, the bulls did recover, but their efforts were hampered by the 107.00 resistance. So, after the range trading — between 107.00 and 105.09 — the bears made another attempt to secure 105.09 as resistance.

But even if they printed a new lower low, 104.00, the bulls were able to send the price back into the flat, above 105.09, respectively.

This may be a turning point. However, as the 105.98 and 106.07 lows suggest, even after two bullish victories, the bears can shift the situation — see the drop enclosed between 108.16 and 104.18.

So, as long as the price trades above 105.09, the bulls have chances to print new upward movements. However, they may be limited by the 106.12 and 107.00 resistances. Only the validation of 107.00 as support would turn the situation in favor of the bulls.

On the other hand, if the price flips under 105.09 and validates it as support, then 103.15 is the next target.

Short-term perspective

The drop from 106.94 extended to as low as 104.00. From there, the price recovered and proved 104.44 as support. From there, it appreciated and is — as of writing — attempting to validate 105.27 as support.

If 105.27 is turned support, then 106.02 might be in bullish reach. On the other hand, if 105.27 fails to serve this purpose, then the bears could send the price to 104.44.

Levels to keep an eye on:


D1: 105.09 106.12 107.00 103.15
H4: 105.27 106.02 104.44

If you have any questions, comments, or opinions regarding the US Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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