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Did the Bulls Check 109.00 on USD/JPY?

June 5, 2020 at 4:55 by Dorin Rosu

The US dollar versus the Japanese yen currency pair managed to climb above the 109.08 level. Do the bears have any plans to undo their work?

Long-term perspective

The depreciation from the 111.71 high extended until the 105.98 low, where it ended after the confirmation as support of the 106.12 intermediary level fueled the bullish optimism.

Once back above the 107.00 psychological level, the price entered a consolidation phase that lasted until the end of May.

However, the pin-bar that validated the 107.00 area as support and that pertains to May 29, sparkled a rally which passed the 108.05 intermediary level in a snap.

Furthermore, as the bullish energy that accumulated during the consolidation was anything but little, they succeded in reaching the 109.08 level without the need for a throwback to confirm 108.05 as support. Even if, at some point, the price might come around to do that, the sole departure from it is — at least for now — enough of a validation.

So, in this situation, one scenario would be the one in which the price consolidates around the 109.08 level. After this stage, the bulls are to continue their march towards 110.18.

On the other hand, 109.08 might be confirmed as resistance and hence — at least for a short while — fire a movement towards the south. However, this decline may very well be limited by the double support defined by the ascending trendline that starts from 105.98 and the 108.05 level, from where the bulls can regroup for a new rally.

Only if the price falls under the aforementioned double support, then the bears may push the price further towards 107.00, an event that would put an end to the bullish movement that originated at 105.98.

Short-term perspective

After the 105.98 low was etched, the price appreciated, confirming the intermediary level fo 106.77 as support. But only after the bears falsely pierced the 107.34 level — also intermediary — the bullish determination became great enough to be able to go past the 108.02 key level.

In fact, the bulls were that decided that they projected the price above the intermediate level of 108.53, its successful confirmation aiding to the price reaching the 109.27 mark.

If 109.27 holds as resistance, then the price may draw a range completed by the 108.53 support. On the other hand, if 109.27 is validated as support, then the bulls may extend their gains further, 109.66 being their next target.

Levels to keep an eye on:

D1: 109.08 110.18 108.05 107.00
H4: 109.27 108.53 109.66

If you have any questions, comments, or opinions regarding the US Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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