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AUD/NZD Still Thinking at the 1.0200 Handle

March 26, 2020 at 8:30 by Dorin Rosu

The Australian dollar versus the New Zealand dollar currency pair seems to be undecided concerning what path to take.

Long-term perspective

After confirming the monthly support of 1.0530 as resistance, the price dropped until the weekly support of 1.0037, printing the low at 0.9993 and then retracing.

The retracement got quite close to the next weekly support, 1.0361, respectively, but on March 25, the bears pushed the price lower, causing the candle to close under the intermediary level of 1.0191.

However, such a wealthy appreciation from the 1.0037 level represents a bullish signature. As a consequence, as long as the price oscillates above this support, the profile remains bullish.

So, one possible scenario is the one in which the price heads towards the weekly 1.0037 level. As the price is getting better and better from the bullish perspective, they will eventually join the market. The first target is 1.0191, followed by 1.0277.

Another scenario, bullish as well, is the one in which the current day closes in a fashion that makes it similar to a hammer. If this happens, then a conservative approach, such as waiting for the next day to close above the psychological 1.0200 level, would be welcome. This scenario targets the same 1.0277.

A bearish scenario, for the long-term, would materialize after 1.0037 is taken out.

Short-term perspective

The price exited the descending trend and appreciated until the level of 1.0282, from where it declined until the low of 1.0119.

It seems that the bulls are guarding the support of 1.0150. So, if they manage to pull from here an appreciation that manages to confirm 1.0211 as support, then they could head on for 1.0282.

On the other hand, if 1.0150 becomes resistance, then the price could revisit the level of 1.0024. But until then, the psychological 1.0100 — not labeled on the chart — could come to the aid of the buyers. If this happens, then the confirmation of 1.0150 as support may trigger further optimism among the participants willing to go long, thus making 1.0211 a fist target, and 1.0282 the second.

Levels to keep an eye on:


D1: 1.0039 1.0191 1.0277
H4: 1.0150 1.0211 1.0282 1.0024

If you have any questions, comments, or opinions regarding the Technical Analysis, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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