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AUD/USD Testing the Lows of 0.6700

August 30, 2019 at 6:21 by Dorin Rosu

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar currency pair looks like it is trying to bottom, but still fails to do so.

Long-term perspective

The decline that started after the confirmation as a resistance of the upper line of the descending channel and the zone defined by 0.7055 and 0.7013 stalled just beneath the 0.6800 psychological level.

Notable is that two prominent lows were also printed, 0.6676 and 0.6687, respectively (the second one being a higher low), a behavior that translates into 0.6700 being well guarded by the bulls. But it seems that the strong retracements are not enough to propel the price above 0.6800. On the other hand, this failure to conquer 0.6800 is not yet met with a strong decline, that would naturally result from the impossibility of the price to traverse a resistance, thus recycling the idea that 0.6700 is under bullish dominance.

So, unless proved otherwise, the 0.6700 area remains a strong support that still has the power to catalyze one more push to the north. This final push could either confirm the old major support of 0.6858 as resistance and trigger a strong fall, or reconquer it.

Short-term perspective

The decline that started at 0.7081 after confirming the 0.7047 as resistance (out of view on the chart) began a consolidative phase that takes the shape of a falling wedge. Contrary to the current situation, this chart pattern follows rallies and, because it is pointed downwards, it a predictor of a consolidation that will eventually end with the price rallying.

So, if price manages to confirm the 11.4 Fibonacci retracement level as support, then a new visit to 23.6 and the upper line of the wedge is in the cards, with the expected outcome of this zone being pierced, allowing an appreciation to 0.6865 and 50.0, respectively.

On the other hand, if 11.4 and the lower line of the wedge will not sustain the price, then the way to 0.6600 is open.

Levels to keep an eye on:


D1: 0.6700 0.6800 0.6858 0.7013
H4: 0.6865 and the Fibonacci retracement levels — mainly 11.4 23.6 50.0

If you have any questions, comments, or opinions regarding the US Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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