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Euro Rallies Higher Despite Italian Political Uncertainty

August 9, 2019 at 11:55 by Simon Mugo

€5 and €10 notes and some coinsThe euro today rallied higher into the early European session despite rumours that the Italian government would call for an early election on October 23rd. The EUR/USD currency pair fell after the release of weak German trade balance data for June, which shrunk more than expected.

The EUR/USD currency pair today rallied from a low of 1.1183 to a high of 1.1207 in the mid-European session and was trading near these highs at the time of writing.

The currency pair opened today’s session trading with a slight bullish bias and rallied for three hours before stalling and trading sideways. The pair fell following the release of the German trade balance data by the Federal Statistical Office, which missed consensus estimates. The country’s trade surplus shrunk to €16.8 billion during the month missing analysts expectations set at €19.5 billion, while its current account surplus was €20.6 billion versus the expected €21.7 billion. News reports that an early Italian election could be held on 13th or 23rd October also weighed on the single currency even as pundits expect Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini to win.

The pair’s performance was also affected by news that the US is suspending the issuance of new licenses to Huawei in retaliation for China’s halted purchases of American agricultural produce. The declining US-German yield spread, which fell to the 220–225 region, also affected the pair’s performance.

The currency pair’s future performance is likely to be affected by geopolitical events in the US and across the eurozone.

The EUR/USD currency pair was trading at 1.1197 as at 11:54 GMT having rallied from a low of 1.1183. The EUR/JPY currency pair was trading at 118.45 having fallen from a high of 118.73.

If you have any questions, comments, or opinions regarding the Euro, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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