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Canadian Dollar Mixed As Crude Surges, GDP Dips in April

July 1, 2019 at 16:23 by Andrew Moran

Canadian coins on Canadian dollar billsThe Canadian dollar is trading mixed against several major currency rivals on the Canada Day holiday. The loonie is benefiting from the rally in crude oil prices, but its advancements might be capped as the market forecasts a slip in manufacturing numbers ahead of crucial jobs and trade data later this week.

Crude oil futures are nearing the $60 mark again, which is significant for the Canadian economy because energy is one of the nation’s biggest exports. So, when resource prices fluctuate, it can affect the health of the Great White North.

August West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $0.42, or 0.72%, to $58.89 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July natural gas futures headed in the opposite direction, tumbling $0.075, or 3.25%, to $2.23 per million British thermal units (btu).

On Friday, Statistics Canada reported that the gross domestic product (GDP) in April climbed 0.3%, down from the 0.5% boost in March. The market had anticipated a 0.1% boost. The consensus on Bay Street is: Thank God for Alberta. The economy was stimulated by a 5.5% jump in oil and gas extraction, thanks to higher output as producers attempted to take advantage of higher prices once the production freeze in Alberta was lifted.

StatsCan also found that wholesale trade and construction helped the national economy, but manufacturing fell 0.8%, mainly because of temporary shutdowns by major motor vehicle plants.

Before the flurry of economic data, the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) is projected to clock in at 49.0 in June, which would be below the 49.1 in May.

Elsewhere in data, the balance of trade is projected to be -$1.5 billion in May, the Canadian economy is expected to create 10,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate is anticipated to come in at 5.5% for June, a 0.1% increase from May.

Analysts are warning that this labor report could be fallout from US tariff threats on Mexico, which were later canceled, and the escalating trade war with China.

The USD/CAD currency pair advanced 0.28% to 1.3130, from an opening of 1.3126, at 16:19 GMT on Monday. The GBP/CAD slipped 0.08% to 1.6606, from an opening of 1.6592.

If you have any questions, comments, or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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