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US Dollar Retains Strength After Disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls

May 4, 2018 at 18:36 by Vladimir Vyun

The US dollar showed relatively solid performance today, considering that the major economic release, nonfarm payrolls, came out rather disappointing.

The headline figure came out below expectations at 164,000 versus forecasts of 190,000. Wage inflation remained stable at 0.2%, while analysts had expected it to accelerate a bit to 0.3%. The unemployment rate was the only part of report that turned out to be better than expected, falling from 4.1% to 3.9% compared to the forecast of 4.0%.

But while the dollar slumped immediately after the report, it has recovered quickly. The employment growth was still solid, and what also important was the fact that it did not affect the outlook for Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The CME FedWatch tool was still showing a 100% chance of an interest rate hike in June and more than 70% chance of another hike in September.

Also helping the currency were comments from US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, who are visiting China to resolve trade dispute between the Asian nation and the United States. Mnuchin said that he had “very good conversations” with Chinese officials.

EUR/USD traded at 1.1961 as of 18:28 GMT today after opening at 1.1988 and falling to 1.1910 — the lowest level since December 28. GBP/USD rebounded to 1.3547 after falling from 1.3572 to 1.3486, the lowest since January 11. USD/JPY was at 109.10, not far from the opening of 109.18, following the earlier drop to 108.65.

If you have any questions, comments, or opinions regarding the US Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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