before I buy myself out of the game.
Not since 2006, but since 2007. There might be a correction soon just because the rate was going up too fast. But in the long term I would still be bullish on USD/JPY.
The absence of a defined bearish reversal signal suggests taking up the short side is premature. It is certainly flat for now, so the best idea is to wait for a more actionable opportunity to present itself.
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It's definitely time to open short. Short positions below 120.65 with targets @ 119.65 & 119.25 in extension, so stop loss at 120.26.
The pair has tested resistance 0.7590. It gives the instrument the right to continue trend in the same direction. But there is a probability that bears will push it more and make it roll down to 0.7515.
In the middle of the day the pair dynamics suffered some change. Bulls increased their strength and the trend direction has changed. A key level is 120.00 for them. For the bears - 118.85, and if they break this level, the trend will change again.
Short-term
Strategy: Corrective move up
Entry: 119.30/20
Target 1: 119.90
Target 2: 120.10
Stop: 119.05
Pivot: 119.55
S/T Outlook: sideways
M/T Outlook: sideways
Our entry/support levels of 118.45/30 nicely held for the expected recovery. We met our 119.05/20 objectives. We saw 119.50 tested earlier. It is now trading around 119.40. From where we are, the ideal formation that we would like to see is for continued strength into 120.00 once again with a potential overshoot into 120.40 where we would look for proper price pressures to resume. The price needs to stay above 119.15/05 for this scenario. This is an aggressive call as far as formations are concerned from the current levels.
Medium-term
Strategy: LOWER
Entry: 121.50
Target 1: 117.35
Target 2: 116.35
Stop: 122.60
Pivot: 120.45
S/T Outlook: sideways
M/T Outlook: sideways
We saw 120.95 traded through aborting our earlier view for negative price developments in medium term. The following price action has only seen 122.05 tested, which we find it disappointing. Our medium term reading is quite neutral with a bias to downside and still calls for a potential losses for about 5% from anywhere above 120.00. Considering the correlation in other JPY crosses, we will have another attempt in this view and observe 122.15/60 area. If the price moves above this, we will need to adjust our suspected range and look for 124/125 area. Any move below 120.45 should support the scenario.
Strategy: Corrective move up
Entry: 119.30/20
Target 1: 119.90
Target 2: 120.10
Stop: 119.05
Pivot: 119.55
S/T Outlook: sideways
M/T Outlook: sideways
Our entry/support levels of 118.45/30 nicely held for the expected recovery. We met our 119.05/20 objectives. We saw 119.50 tested earlier. It is now trading around 119.40. From where we are, the ideal formation that we would like to see is for continued strength into 120.00 once again with a potential overshoot into 120.40 where we would look for proper price pressures to resume. The price needs to stay above 119.15/05 for this scenario. This is an aggressive call as far as formations are concerned from the current levels.
Medium-term
Strategy: LOWER
Entry: 121.50
Target 1: 117.35
Target 2: 116.35
Stop: 122.60
Pivot: 120.45
S/T Outlook: sideways
M/T Outlook: sideways
We saw 120.95 traded through aborting our earlier view for negative price developments in medium term. The following price action has only seen 122.05 tested, which we find it disappointing. Our medium term reading is quite neutral with a bias to downside and still calls for a potential losses for about 5% from anywhere above 120.00. Considering the correlation in other JPY crosses, we will have another attempt in this view and observe 122.15/60 area. If the price moves above this, we will need to adjust our suspected range and look for 124/125 area. Any move below 120.45 should support the scenario.
In the event USDJPY break below 120.26, I expect to see sharp declines in store with the first support at 119.71 followed by 119.045.
I think the available trading range is too narrow to justify entering a trade on the long or short side from a risk/reward perspective. I'm waiting for price action to offer a more compelling opportunity down the road.
The available trading range is too narrow to justify entering a trade on the long or short side from a risk/reward perspective. I will remain flat for now, waiting for price action to offer a more compelling opportunity down the road.
I believe that the market isn’t quite ready to go higher yet, but I don’t like shorting as I am sitting just above significant support. Because of this, I believe that it’s probably best to simply leave this market alone at the moment as it looks a bit confused.
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