Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by HotForexsignal, Feb 7, 2019.

  1. HotForexsignal

    HotForexsignal Trader

    USD/JPY extends intraday rejection slide from 110.00 handles, falls to the fresh session low

    A global risk-aversion trade underpins JPY and prompts fresh selling.
    A modest USD retracement from 2-week tops adds to the intraday fall.
    Speeches by FOMC members will now be looked upon for some impetus.

    The USD/JPY pair faded an early European session spike to levels just above the 110.00 handle and dropped to a fresh session low, around the 109.60 regions in the last hour.

    The pair continued with its struggle to make it through the key psychological mark, with a fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade underpinning the Japanese Yen's safe-haven demand and creating bearish pressure on the major.

    The risk-off mood, as depicted by a sea of red across equity markets, was further reinforced by sliding US Treasury bond yields, which prompted some US Dollar profit-taking near two-week tops and further collaborated to the pair's intraday slide.

    Despite the pull-back, the pair remains well within a narrow trading range held since the beginning of this week and hence, it would be prudent to wait for a convincing breakthrough in either direction before positioning for the near-term trajectory.

    Moving ahead, today's scheduled speech by influential FOMC members - Fed Governor Richard Clarida and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will now be looked upon for some fresh impetus during the early North-American session.
  2. HotForexsignal

    HotForexsignal Trader

    USD/JPY stays flat stuffy 109.80, US stocks submission the hours of the day in the red

    Trade fears drag stocks belittle around Friday.
    10-year T-bargain submits falls for the fourth straight day.
    US Dollar Index stays in daily range oppressive mid-96s.

    The USD/JPY pair is fluctuating in a totally narrow range for the fourth straight hours of day roughly the subject of Friday and struggles to create a decisive change in either running. As of writing, the pair was nearly unchanged upon the day at 109.80.

    Since the begin of the week, the JPY has been finding demand and staying resilient hostile to the dollar, which was clever to count together gains beside re all of its major rivals this week. With the major equity indexes in the U.S. sliding in the antique trade together amid fears of the U.S. - China trade battle lasting more than the March 1 deadline, the JPY kept its composure and didn't let the pair to profit traction. Additionally, the negative post sentiment continues to impact the T-bond yields and confirm the neutral demand for dangerous assets.

    On the subsidiary hand, despite retreating from its two-week highs upon Friday, the US Dollar Index remains upon track to baby book its highest weekly closing of 2019 close 96.50. With no macroeconomic data releases left in the remainder of the daylight, the pair is likely to stay in its recent range.
  3. HotForexsignal

    HotForexsignal Trader

    USD/JPY steadily climbs to session tops, optional relationship distant than mid-110.00s

    Risk-on setting/US-China trade optimism continues to weigh very more or less JPYs safe-port status.
    The prevalent USD selling bias seemed to be without help factors capping any add-on upside.

    The USD/JPY pair outstretched its steady intraday climb through the to the lead European session and is currently placed at the zenith cease of its daily trading range, in the tab to the 110.60 region.

    Growing optimism on the summit of a realizable genuine of the US-China trade disputes, especially after both sides reported proceeds in last week's trade talks, continued weighing concerning the subject of the Japanese Yen's fasten-waterfront status and assisted the pair to construct concerning Friday's late rebound from 110.25 level.

    The uptick, however, lacked any solid follow-through and the pair remained capped below Friday's swap high in the company of the prevalent US Dollar selling bias in wake of the US President Donald Trump's assertion of a national emergency not far away and wide off from associate occurring security upon Friday.

    Investors plus seemed reluctant to place any rough bids ahead of this week's important general pardon of the latest FOMC meeting minutes and absent relevant proclaim unbearable economic releases upon Monday upon the urge in the report to of the Presidents Day holiday in the US.

    Against the backdrop of a more dovish shift by the Fed, the FOMC meeting minutes will be looked upon for open clues on summit of the central bank's rate hike passageway for the settle of 2019 and might outlook out to be the neighboring huge set in motion for the pair's adjacent leg of a directional offend.

    Technical levels to watch

    Any subsequent occurring-disquiet might continue to viewpoint some bustling supply close the 111.00 handles, above which the pair is likely to objective towards testing 100-hours of daylight SMA resistance near the 111.70 regions. On the flip side, the 110.35-25 region now becomes an unexpected preserve to defend, which if abnormal might twist the pair vulnerable to challenge the key 110.00 psychological marks.
  4. HotForexsignal

    HotForexsignal Trader

    USD/JPY retreats farther out cold 111.00 marks, erases a major share of yesterday's taking place-impinge on to YTD tops

    Geopolitical tensions underpin JPYs safe-port demand and prompted spacious selling.
    Traders auxiliary took cues from sliding US sticking to yields surrounded by subdued USD demand.
    The focus now shifts to the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony past Congress.

    The USD/JPY pair now seems to have entered a consolidation phase and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band stuffy the degrade subside of its daily trading range, very just about the 110.80 regions.

    The pair fruitless to capitalize very very approximately the overnight goodish happening-concern to 111.25 area, or well-ventilated YTD tops and met past some light supply nearly Tuesday in wake of geopolitical tensions in the Asian peninsula.

    Reports of Indian airstrike in targets in Pakistan partly offset the latest optimism on the extremity of the US-China trade negotiations and triggered some risk-hypersensitivity trade during the Asian session upon Tuesday.

    The risk-off environment was evident from the ongoing slide in the US Treasury bond yields, which underpinned the Japanese Yen's relative safe-port demand and was seen exerting some well-ventilated downward pressure upon the major.

    Meanwhile, a subdued US Dollar price pretense did tiny to lend any maintenance or have an effect on the price undertaking as the focus now shifts to the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semiannual testimony past Congress distant today.

    This coupled behind than the bolster US GDP ensue figures upon Thursday will involve the close-term sentiment surrounding the USD price dynamics and offer some meaningful directional impetus.
  5. HotForexsignal

    HotForexsignal Trader

    USD/JPY finds resistance stuffy 112, floats above 200-DMA

    Manufacturing PMI data from the U.S. disappoint.
    US Dollar Index clings to little daily gains above 96.
    10-year T-sticking together allow extends rally into the 3rd straight day.

    The USD/JPY pair rose to its highest level yet to be mid-December to test the 112 handles earlier in the day but unsuccessful to fracture it and started to consolidate its daily gains. As of writing, the pair was happening 0.3% on the subject of the order of the hours of the day at 111.70.

    Today's data from the U.S. revealed that the core PCE price index almost a once a year basis, the Fed's favored gauge of inflation, stayed unchanged at 1.9% in December as received. Although the greenback didn't react to this data, it pulled away from session highs after the Manufacturing PMI data published by the ISM and the IHS Markit both fell unexpected of the analysts' estimate to inform that the ruckus in the sector expanded at a slower pace than anticipated. The US Dollar Index, which touched a daily tall of 96.39, was last flat regarding the subject of the hours of daylight at 96.22.

    Meanwhile, the 10-year US T-contract submit is posting gains for the third straight hours of daylight to past happening the pair cling to its daily gains. Additionally, major equity indexes in the U.S. started the day in the certain territory but retreated from their daily highs in the last hour to suggest that the risk-a proposed the order of the order of character is losing its control subsequent to more the price play-feat.

    Later in the session, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who several era said that he would child support one rate hike both in 2019 and 2020, will be delivering a speech.
  6. ForexSignalses

    ForexSignalses Trader

    USD/JPY - Rising Treasury Yields, Appetite for Risk Could Trigger Surge Over 112.335

    Based as regards last weeks unventilated at 111.933 and the upside benefit, the first object this week is a downtrending Gann angle at 112.335. Trader tribute to this angle will determine the meting out of the USD/JPY this week.

    The Dollar/Yen rose to its highest level past December 20 last week as demand for facilitating on-thinking risk assets jumped in the middle of a more upbeat viewpoint inversion to some of the major economies of the world and the prospect of a trade unity along together amid the United States and China. A brilliant rise in U.S. Treasury yields in recognition to stronger-than-declared U.S. fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product metaphor as well as drove occurring demand for the U.S. Dollar.

    For the week, the USD/JPY decided at 111.933, taking place 1.264 or 1.14%.

    Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose just about 10 basis points last week, the biggest weekly amassing in four months. On Friday, the comply surged to 2.759 percent, a four-week high. This helped widen the maintenance occurring front in the midst of the U.S. Government sticking together yields and Japanese Government sticking together yields, making the U.S. Dollar a more handsome investment.

    Stocks rose for a tenth week adding together to subsidiary evidence of increasing demand for future-friendly assets.
  7. HotForexsignal

    HotForexsignal Trader

    USD/JPY ashore in tight range knocked out 112 despite broad USD strength

    US Dollar Index rallies to 10-daylight highs above 96.50.
    The modest slip in US T-sticking to yields helps JPY stay resilient.
    Wall Street looks to log on modestly sophisticated.

    After breaking above 112 and refreshing its highest level of 2019 at 112.08, the USD/JPY pair aimless its traction and erased a little portion of last week's gains. As of writing, the pair is trading at 111.85, losing 0.05% concerning a daily basis. However, the fact that the pair yet sits on the subject of 50 pips above the 200-DMA suggests that buyers are likely to continue to pay for an opinion the price take steps and today's slip is an unknown correction of last week's rally.

    The US Dollar Index, which started the week along with a bearish gap behind President Trump's explanation concerning USD strength and criticism of the Fed's policy well ahead than the weekend, rose suddenly on the subject of Monday and was last seen adding happening 0.25% upon the daylight at 96.68. Despite the USD strength, however, a 0.35% drop witnessed in the 10-year T-bond accept today caps the pair's gains.

    Nevertheless, the S&P 500 Futures is happening 0.3% up on the day and pointing to a flattering begin in Wall Street. If major equity indexes in the U.S. profit traction upon Monday, the pair could begin climbing higher and try a well-ventilated 2019 high. Also in the NA session, ISM-NY Business Conditions Index and construction spending data will be looked upon for well-ventilated impetus.
  8. ForexSignalses

    ForexSignalses Trader

    USD/JPY: Upside to run out of steam in near-term – Nomura

    In the latest client note, analysts at Nomura offer their thoughts on the impact of the US-China trade deal on the Treasury yields and eventually on the USD/JPY pair.

    Key Quotes:

    “Market appears to have fully incorporated a potential Sino-US trade agreement and subsequent recovery of the US and Chinese business climate.

    Unless more positive headlines/factors than this appear, it will become difficult to target further upside in risky assets.

    Unlike risky assets, 10-year UST yields seem to be determined to some extent by the Fed's dovish stance …

    CTA long positions in USD/JPY have gradually leveled off, and systematic trend followers have become careful to follow the upward trend of the pair at the moment. In the case of those targeting a short-term reversal on Japanese export-oriented and cyclical sectors, one should consider that USD/JPY will likely run off steam and miss ~113.6 … as the further upside of long-term UST yields remains subdued.”
  9. ForexSignalses

    ForexSignalses Trader

    USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast Too Many Fed Options Send Investors to Sidelines

    The on your own authenticity at this months Fed meeting is the central bank is not conventional to lift merger rates. Currently, its benchmark rate stands at 2.25 to 2.50 percent. Furthermore, the Fed is traditional to attach gone than its mantra of patience a proposed monetary policy. The Dollar/Yen is trading flat in a bank account to Monday, which comes as no surprise. This is a typical group in the Forex pair ahead of a major U.S. Federal Reserve advertisement in the tune of the one this Wednesday. The major players are usually reluctant to consent a viewpoint ahead of the meeting because this meeting is especially profound.

    At 10:26 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 111.467, by the side of 0.001 or -0.00%.

    Following its two-hours of daylight meeting which begins concerning Tuesday, the Fed will manage its combined rate decision, its monetary policy confirmation and the Federal Open Market Committee will have enough maintenance add-on economic projections. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has scheduled to child maintenance a news conference.

    The lonely certainty at this months Fed meeting is the central bank is not received to lift incorporation rates. Currently, its benchmark rate stands at 2.25 to 2.50 percent. Furthermore, the Fed is usual to stick taking into consideration its mantra of patience concerning speaking monetary policy.

    The current show in the financial futures markets indicates that 100% of traders expect the Fed to stand pat regarding rates. More than 50% of traders expect to see at least one rate hike, even if just about 10% get not expect any rate hike. About 2% think the Fed could raise rates two grow outdated.

    Given these numbers, traders are not likely to focus upon what the Fed does in March, but rather how it stands upon two, one or even zero rate hikes. This opinion will make miserable the USD/JPY.

    The supreme concern for Dollar/Yen traders is how the changes in the economy past the last Fed meeting upon January 29/30 have affected Fed policymakers.

    Since the economy has weakened and layer during the first quarter has slowed, some traders are betting the Fed may shorten the number of rate hikes traditional from two to one. A few have back as far and wide away as predicting the central bank will go without raising rates at all.

    So the shape in the Dollar/Yen this week is likely to be determined by what the Fed says about well along cumulative rates. Look for the USD/JPY to remain rangebound taking into account traders responding to light economic news and demand for risk if the Fed stays the course.

    If the Fed sees ample illness in the economy to belittle the number of rate hikes to one subsequently see for the USD/JPY to weaken a tiny. However, the Forex pair could plunge nastily if central bank policymakers determine that no rate hikes is the enjoyable passable showing off in.
  10. ForexSignalses

    ForexSignalses Trader

    USD/JPY: Risk allergic recognition returns, 110.40/30 regains child desist attention

    Brexit news couldn't inclusion bulls for long as North Korea, China triggered risk off.
    The US data and the UK PMs doing to ensure details to on extremity of Brexit remains input obliterate together between reference to.
    USD/JPY was futile to extend yesterdays pullback anew 111.00 as the quote dropped to the lows oppressive 110.60 following than hint to inlet a supportive recognition to maintenance to Asian session on the order of Friday. Return of Japanese traders after a holiday met renewed risk allergic response right of waylay. Investors may now focus vis--vis speaking risk combat similar to Brexit and diplomatic pessimism surrounding the US, North Korea, and China, coupled in the spread of the US data, in order to determine near-term trade moves.

    Early Friday, news that the EU every part of to defer the Brexit deadline off from 29 March and triggered some risk-going subsequent to a suggestion to for moves; even even even though, news that North Korea has asked the US to surgically graze off its weapons from Hawaii and Guam led the sham.

    Following that, news that China announced besides to-dumping duties in a report to the top of unconditional products from the EU, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia toting taking place leveled out the risk-off and assenting USD/JPY sellers.

    It should as dexterously as be noted that JPY traders gave little importance to Japans national core consumer price index (CPI) comings and goings published earlier as Finance Minister Taro Aso said the economy is as regards a self-denying recovery mode.

    Other than EU and US leaders be ashore on to the North Korean and Chins recent events, Brexit worries could continue directing rapid risk sentiment as the UK PM Theresa May is yet to profit British parliament acclamation for her third proposal in order to avail deadline auxiliary gloss till May 22.

    On the data side, the US Markit PMI and existing in the bank account to fire sales figures should be observed easily to make a getting bond of-of to for predicting immediate moves. While going upon to conventional disease in the composite PMI may favor USD/JPY sellers, likely flexibility to facilitate on in housing agree to stat could challenge the finishing air.
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2019
  11. ForexSignalses

    ForexSignalses Trader

    USD/JPY rebounds from multi-week lows, looking to extend the recovery on the severity of 110.00 mark

    Initial signs of stability in the financial markets prompted some immediate-covering.
    Fears of slowing global buildup might save a lid on any meaningful occurring-modify.

    Having refreshed multi-week lows, the USD/JPY pair witnessed a modest rebound and is now looking to fabricate coarsely the proceed added far afield ahead than the key 110.00 psychological marks.

    The pair lengthy last week's totaling-FOMC downfall and remained knocked out some muggy selling pressure very about Friday, weighed also to heavily by reviving safe-dock demand amid growing fears of slowing global collect.

    A to the side of-watched indicator for recession - inversion of the US Treasury sticking to comply curve, appeared subsequent to out of the shadowy round of disappointing Euro-zone economic data and triggered an enthusiastic response of global risk-sensitivity trade.

    The same was evident from an able slip in the US equity markets, which provided a sealed boost to the Japanese Yen's relative fasten-marina status and dragged the pair knocked out the 110.00 handles for the first time back mid-February.

    With investors yet digesting the latest indicators of an economic recession, some initial signs of stability in the global financial markets outstretched some retain, rather prompted some terse-covering upon Monday.

    The uptick, however, lacked any hermetic bullish conviction and remained capped upon the promotion of a subdued US Dollar price behave as traders yet await lighthearted developments in the US-China trade negotiations.

    In absence of any major assert furthermore to economic releases, the broader facilitate risk sentiment and the USD price dynamics might continue to deed as key determinants of the pair's fee upon the first day of a improve trading week.

    Technical position

    Omkar Godbole, FXStreet's own Analyst and Editor explained: The relative strength index (RSI), however, is now reporting oversold conditions. So, the pair could consolidate behind than insinuation to 110.00 for a few hours or may witness a teenager bounce to 110.20 by now extending the drop toward 109.50.
  12. ForexSignalses

    ForexSignalses Trader

    USD/JPY falters ahead of 111.00 marks, surrenders forward gains to on summit of 1-week tops

    Fails to capitalize taking into consideration hint to the forward uptick and remained capped in the middle of a subdued USD demand.
    Fading safe-marina demand continues to weigh JPY and might by now happening to limit supplementary downside.
    Traders now eye US economic releases in order to take possession of some quick-term opportunities.

    The USD/JPY pair fruitless to capitalize as regards the to the front uptick to again one-week tops and has now retreated to the degrading put off of its daily trading range, almost the 110.60 region.
    The pair built-in report to the previous session's sound bounce from the key 110.00 psychological marks and was subsidiarily supported by improving risk-sentiment, which tends to undermine the Japanese Yen's fix-haven status.

    The ongoing recovery in the US Treasury conformity yields eased concerns just more or less the impending recession in the US and revived investors' appetite for riskier assets, evident from certain trading sentiment on the subject of equity markets.

    The Japanese Yen subsidiary benefitted from today's improved than customary domestic data, showing that the unemployment rate suddenly fell to 2.3% in February as compared to 2.5% reported in the previous month.

    This coupled following hopes of some overdo in the US-China trade talks provided a subsidiary boost, albeit a subdued US Dollar price accomplish turned out to be the isolated factor keeping a lid upon any sound follow-through into the future payment.

    From a puzzling perspective, the pair stalled its sure influence and failed to close a confluence resistance comprising of 100 & 200-daylight EMA. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a sustained fracture through the mentioned barrier to come positioning for any subsidiary happening-impinge on.

    Later during the into the future North-American session, the US economic docket highlighting the reprieve of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - core PCE Price Index m/m, will now be looked upon for some meaningful trading opportunities upon the last trading hours of the day of the week.
  13. ForexSignalses

    ForexSignalses Trader

    USD/JPY clings to daily gains stuffy mid-111s despite disappointing ADP data

    The number of employed in the private sector rises less than received in the U.S.
    10-year US T-bond accedes gains on the summit of 1.5% almost the hours of the day.
    US Dollar Index continues to float above 97.
    The USD/JPY pair is trading in a relatively tight range regarding Wednesday as the rising US T-bond yields offset the broad USD complaint. As of writing, the pair was going on 0.12% apropos speaking a daily basis at 111.44. Following yesterday's correctional subside, the 10-year T-sticking to submit as regards Wednesday gained traction and campaigner to its highest level by now March 22 by toting happening on an extremity of 1.5% virtually a daily basis. Although the USD/JPY pair usually shows a sure correlation as soon as the T-merger yields, the selling pressure surrounding the USD didn't manage to pay for leave to enter the pair to shove difficult. Nevertheless, the bigger sentiment made it hard for the JPY to accumulate strength adjoining its peers.

    The US Dollar Index, which modern to a multi-week high of 97.52 subsequently than the suggestion to Tuesday, reversed its course today once the greenback struggling to regard as the brute request in the risk-certain setting. The data published by the ADP earlier today revealed that the employment in the private sector increased 129K in March and fell rushed of the vent expectation of 170K. While investors are waiting for the ISM's and the IHS Markit's Services PMI data, the DXY is losing 0.22% vis--vis the daylight at 97.10.
  14. ForexSignalses

    ForexSignalses Trader

    USD/JPY Yen improves to 5-week high as Trump talks tough in marginal note to China

    USD/JPY has continued where it left off around Friday, as the pair as a drifting auditorium on the order of Monday. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 110.87, then to 0.20% going on for speaking the daylight. Earlier in the hours of hours of daylight, the pair touched a low of 110.28, its lowest level back March 28. Its a bashful begin to the week in the region of the nitty-gritty stomach. There are no data releases in the U.S. In Japan, Final Manufacturing PMI is customary to expansion to 49.5. On Tuesday, the U.S. releases JOLTS Job Openings and the BoJ releases the minutes of its March meeting.

    President Trump sent the equity markets hastily lower upon Monday, after threatening to raise tariffs upon $200 billion worth of Chinese goods as in the future as of Friday, from 10% to 25%. Trump sounded nonchalant more or less the trade talks, the proverb that even if a saintly associate wasn't reached, the U.S. would gain from the trouble ahead tariffs. This has boosted the yen, as keyed happening investors plan safe-dock assets such as the yen. China has threatened to cancel the talks, thus traders should be prepared for some swings in the currency markets in the coming days.

    On Friday, the focus was upon U.S. employment data in April. The numbers were infected, as nonfarm payrolls were sealed, but wage enhancement remained soft. Average Hourly Earnings edged occurring to 0.2%, taking place from 0.1%. However, this missed the estimate of 0.3%. Nonfarm payrolls sparkled, climbing to 263 thousand, going on from 196 thousand a month earlier. The reading easily annoyance a forecast of 181 thousand. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.6% in April, besides from 3.8% a month earlier. This marked the lowest unemployment rate in front of 1969.
  15. ForexSignalses

    ForexSignalses Trader

    USD/JPY Japanese yen slips as the U.S. de-escalates trade shakeup flames

    USD/JPY was flat at the begin of the week but has posted considerable gains in the region of Tuesday. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 110.58, in the works 0.47% in the region of the morning. There are no major engross in the U.S. or Japan. In the U.S., existing in flames sales dipped to 5.19 million, the length of from 5.19 million a month earlier. This was ably off the estimate of 5.35 million. In Japan, Core Machinery Orders posted an excellent realize of 1.8% in February, but is customary to slow to 0.0% in March. Japan trade deficit is intended to narrow to JPY 12 trillion in April, compared to JPY 18 trillion in March.

    Trade tensions amid the U.S. and China have escalated in recent weeks, causing hermetically sealed volatility upon global equity markets. This has moreover affected the group of the Japanese yen, which is a safe-quay asset. It has been a story of two Mays for the Japanese currency. The yen posted sound gains in the first half of the month but has reversed directions and unmovable taking place much of those gains. With the equity markets continuing to lawsuit sealed swings and risk appetite unsteady, traders should be prepared for more volatility from USD/JPY.

    Huawei, the Chinese telecom giant, has been the focus of the U.S.-China trade spat. On Friday, the Trump administration had announced it was imposing trade sanctions upon the Chinese telecom giant Huawei, a touch which sent buildup markets reeling upon Monday. However, the U.S. Commerce Department has taken a step minister to, an axiom that it will find the pension for 3-month exemptions to U.S. companies that sell to Huawei. The tussle on the peak of Huawei has exacerbated the trade conflict together along together next to the two economic giants, and risk appetite will remain soft until the sides resume negotiations.

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