The price of oil?

Rambo35

Confirmed PaxForex Representative
Apr 22, 2013
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The price of oil, more than just the US and Saudi Arabia forcing it lower as they hope to punish Russia? I think there is more and the weak price of oil signals that the global economy may be much weaker than expected.
 

bullandbear

Trader
Feb 10, 2015
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The price of oil, more than just the US and Saudi Arabia forcing it lower as they hope to punish Russia? I think there is more and the weak price of oil signals that the global economy may be much weaker than expected.
Looks like oil is being used as a tool for a political manipulations this time.
From the other side this price is still quite profitable to OPEC member countries, as they have efficient systems for exploitation in place, and can dictate conditions to others.
And at such low prices for others(non OPEC countries) is not worth it to invest in new projects and wells and to modernize existing ones.
This could contribute to long-term shortages that they could use to artificially control supply causing a jump in prices.
 

Sumita

Trader
Dec 21, 2015
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Hey guys, found this thread on Crude Oil so thought of asking about your views on the future of price movements in WTI.
In this prevailing supply glut and slow pace of growth in demand of crude oil, what do you expect: will it move below $30?
 
Dec 19, 2015
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Crude prices have breached the strong technical level of $30. As there is no fundamental positive news for the black gold. All i see around is negative. Rising supply gult, Iran Sanctions left, Russia to pump more, Shale gas also having not much of impact. only what i can think of poistive right now is some action from US before thier elections. Till then if the brerish pressure continues i expect prices to test the levels of $25 or might be $20 also.
Whats your view?
 

Sumita

Trader
Dec 21, 2015
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Hello,
The OPEC, which controls a vast majority of the available oil has not been able to control the production or cut the production.However, with greater domestic production, these three countries are importing less oil and are in fact exporting more oil. Saudi Arabia, the major producer inside OPEC, has denied to decrease its production because of fear of loosing the the market share.


Overall, global demand for oil has slowed significantly, especially with China approaching at least a slow down if not an outright recession.

Finally, Iraq is about to put its oil on the market as the sanctions has been lifted.
All of these things point to a continuing over supply of oil, and at least a level if not declining global demand. It is not unreasonable to think that the price of oil will continue to slide. However, it may do so more slowly than the current charts look. One clue to look for would be the union and or "normalization" of the futures and spot market prices. But for now...if you are short, stay short. If you are looking to go long, best to wait. And you could have a very long wait.
 
Dec 19, 2015
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Guys! Crude prices seem to rebound and Many OPEC and Non OPEC countires are predicting to cut its output by 5% and also US economy is showing weaker economic data. But i still find that the rebound is not sustaiable for long. It the supply glut persists, and there is no major steps taken to control production. i dont find a good reason for crude privces to rebound. Any views??
 

Enivid

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Nov 30, 2008
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Many OPEC and Non OPEC countires are predicting to cut its output by 5%
They agreed to cut, but they have not cut yet, and there is no guarantee that they (especially OPEC members) will act on this agreement.

also US economy is showing weaker economic data
That's actually a negative factor for oil prices. Slower growth means lower demand for oil.
 
Dec 19, 2015
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yeah, as far as i know Non OPEC countiries like Russia has agreed to production cut, its just that OPEC countiries are not with the same view. Saudi Arabia still wants hold the position to be the lion of oil market. And Iran just got a chance after years, they are willing for supply at any lower level and above that OPEC also welcomed Indonesia back to support thier supply glut.
Sauidi has rasied so much of taxes, people there are having a miserable life. i hope there is stong upfront to this. But overall, there is not postitive reaction for oil to rebound.
 

Johan.21

Newbie
Sep 10, 2015
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Oil market officals seems to be in a mood to stop the oil rout. And the equity market is also reacting positively to the news. I think the oil market is going to rebound soon, the bottom has been touched. i am expecting the uprend to breach $40 in a month from now.
What are your view?
 

Enivid

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Nov 30, 2008
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They control supply and can influence the price by either increasing or decreasing the output. Of course, they are quite limited at what they can do unless they cooperate strongly, which is also a very difficult feat.