the folding rule

Discussion in 'Trading Journals' started by hayseed, Aug 1, 2016.

  1. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
    Viktor Likhovidov wrote the article, The Folding Rule ....... it was published in the june 2001 edition of "technical analysis of stocks & commodities" magazine.....
    //------

    it's seldom good idea to trade with weekend spreads....

    the average gbpusd 200 periods atr is about 29 pips.... a 0.01 lot, or 1/10 mini lot, trade would be worth just under 3$.... the average 12,5,3 zigzag leg for same sized trade is worth around 13$....

    so a single trade, with a single full atr move in our direction, would give us in excess of 1% on a 200$ account.... maximum margin required for the single trade would be 26$....

    a second sell stop, trailing with the 0.02 psar, could add a second trade..... maximum margin required would be 52 $....

    that second trade would be unwise..... but the same can be said for trading forex.....

    small accounts might do better trading the pairs with smallest margin required..... nzdusd is a good example..... gbpusd is not......h
    //-----
     

    Attached Files:

    Enivid likes this.
  2. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
    neither the usd nor the gbp had good news released today.... so that was a wash......

    the 60 minute psar was tripped, barely but still tripped, so another psar trailing sell stop is in place.....

    the average gbpusd 240 zigzag(12,5,3) length is about 258 pips with a $ value of almost 26 bucks..... current leg is dead on it at 246 pips and up.....

    so a single 0.01 sized trade, that's the smallest allowed for this account, might return in the neighborhood of 28$ during that single zigzag leg..... which would represent 1% return on a small 200$ account for 14 calendar days..... 2 such trades, not wise, have the potential return more.....

    the 240 minute alma is red, down.... the average number of bars per 240 minute alma signal is 6.... currently the count is 3.... so on average we have 3 more to fall....

    the 60 minute alma is lime, up.... the average number of bars per 60 minute signal is also 6.... current count is 5..... so a possible down turn is due soon.....

    the 240 psar is above us...... letting the gbpusd continue to fall into trailing psar sell stops would ride the 240 zigzag down..... adding to a winner while following the trend down....

    the ruler appears to be folding...... subject to change......h
     

    Attached Files:

    pepepoya and Enivid like this.
  3. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
    uptrend..... resistance..... rbnz's resolve...... jackson hole......
    //------

    nzdusd daily chart is in a perfect rising triangle that's quickly running out of room...... with the nzd being such a thin market in comparative terms, any short covering could lead to a spike...... and could very well be the next ruler to fold.....h
    //----
    [​IMG]
     
    Enivid likes this.
  4. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
    takes more than 1 bar to reverse a trend..... but it's a start......h
    //---

    [​IMG]
    //----
    [​IMG]
     
  5. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
  6. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
    somebody is going to get their fingers caught in the ruler when it folds here.... 2 weeks dead in the water.... couple more hours and we should know who.....h
    //----

    [​IMG]
    //----
    [​IMG]
     
  7. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
    makes me wonder if......h
    //-----

    [​IMG]
     
  8. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
    guess we can consider the wondering over.....
    //------
    [​IMG]

    //------

    fridays global market weakness could very well be the first step of some perfect setups..... any sort of capitulation next week, or few weeks, could very well mark multi year tops and bottoms.... and bring back the long waited carry trades at rock bottom prices.......h
    //-----

    [​IMG]

    //------

    [​IMG]
    //-----

    [​IMG]
     
  9. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
    wonder who'll have the final say here.....h
    //-----
    [​IMG]
     
  10. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
    //-----

    took awhile but heard'em loud and clear......h
    //-----
    [​IMG]
     
  11. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
    looks like trouble is brewing at the audjpy donchian channel......h
    //-----

    [​IMG]
     
  12. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
    high beta pair knocking on the weekly downtrend line on elections doorstep...... this should prove interesting.......h
    //----

    [​IMG]
    //------
    [​IMG]
     
  13. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
  14. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
    again pressing support..... with coils tightening.....h
    //--

    [​IMG]
     
  15. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
    all the eurjpy trades above are now gone...... cadjpy testing the daily and 10 pip renko trend lines......h
    //----

    [​IMG]
    //-----
    [​IMG]
     
  16. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
    London doing it's best to see just what that nzdjpy support is made of..... if the 60 and 240 charts drag too much, the daily should nose down in sympathy......h


    //------
    [​IMG]
    //-----

    [​IMG]
    //----
     
  17. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
    looks like 116 will be the teeter totter line in the sand.....h

    //------
    [​IMG]
    //----
    [​IMG]
     
  18. hayseed

    hayseed Master Trader

    395
    90
    94
    “will you walk into my parlour?” said the spider to the fly.......h
    //-----

    [​IMG]
     
    artfor likes this.
  19. artfor

    artfor Trader

    14
    1
    8
    Like your strategy, well done.
     

Share This Page