Technical Analysis EURJPY : 2021-03-31

[IFC Markets]

Recommendation for EUR/JPY:Sell​

Sell Stop : Below 128

Stop Loss : Above 131



RSI : Sell

MACD : Sell

MA(200) : Neutral

Fractals : Neutral

Parabolic SAR : Sell

Bollinger Bands : Neutral

Chart Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, EURJPY: D1 approached the support line of the long-term uptrend. It must be broken in the downward direction before opening a position. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further decline. We do not exclude a bearish move if EURJPY falls below the last lower fractal and lower Bollinger band: 128. This level can be used as an entry point. We can place a stop loss above the maximum since October 2018, the upper Bollinger line and the Parabolic signal: 131. After opening the pending order, we can move the stop loss following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal maximum. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. After the transaction, the most risk-averse traders can switch to the four-hour chart and place a stop loss, moving it in the direction of the bias. If the price meets the stop loss (131) without activating the order (128), it is recommended to delete the order: the market sustains internal changes that have not been taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis​

In this review, we will consider the Euro vs Japanese yen chart. Will the EURJPY quotes move down? The downward movement means the strengthening of the Japanese yen versus the euro. Japan published positive macroeconomic data for February. The unemployment rate was 2.9%, the same as in January. It was expected to increase up to 3%. Retail sales surged 3.1% MoM, while just +1.2% had been previously expected. In annual terms, retail sales decreased by 1.5%, which is also better than the forecast (-2.8%). On March 31, Japan will release data on industrial production and housing for February, which may affect the dynamics of the yen. The EU economic growth may slow down amid the ongoing quarantine due to the suspension of the use of the COvid-19 vaccines. On March 31, the EU will release inflation data for March. The forecast is negative for the euro, as on March 30 it became known that inflation in Germany rose to 1.7% in March in annual terms from 1.3% in February. In addition, the German labor market data for March will be published on March 31, which may also be weak.