Technical Analysis #C-WHEAT : 2021-08-23

IFC Markets

Master Trader
Oct 31, 2012
London (Great Britain)

Recommendation for Wheat:Sell​

Sell Stop: Below 716

Stop Loss: Above 783

Indicator Signal
RSI Neutral
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Sell
Bollinger Bands Neutral

Chart Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, WHEAT: D1 has broken down the support line of the short-term ascending channel and is moving towards the lower border of the longer neutral range. A number of technical analysis indicators have generated signals for further decline. We do not rule out a bearish movement if WHEAT: D1 falls below the last down fractal: 716. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limitation is possible above the maximum since February 2013, the last upper fractal and the Parabolic signal: 783. After opening the pending order, move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal maximum. Thus, we change the potential profit / loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a deal, can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (783) without activating the order (716), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.


Fundamental Analysis​

Wheat exports to the United States fell. Will the WHEAT quotes continue to decline?

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), US wheat exports for the week ended August 12 amounted to 592 thousand tons, down 5.7% from the previous week. Since the beginning of the current marketing year, US wheat exports totaled 4.33 million tonnes. This is 18% less than the same period a year earlier. In theory, the resumption of the coronavirus epidemic and quarantine in ports could reduce the activity of sea shipping. The USDA previously predicted a 7% decline in the 2021 U.S. wheat crop from a year ago. However, the meteorological agency AccuWeather does not rule out milder weather in the Atlantic this fall compared to 2020, which was a record year for the number of hurricanes. Good weather can improve grain yields.