Technical Analysis #C-SUGAR : 2021-07-26

[IFC Markets]

Recommendation for Sugar:Buy​

Buy Stop : Above 18,5

Stop Loss : Below 16





RSI : Neutral

MACD : Sell

MA(200) : Neutral

Fractals : Neutral

Parabolic SAR ։ Buy

Bollinger Bands ։ Buy

Chart Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, SUGAR: D1 is in the neutral range. It must go up from it before opening a position. A number of technical analysis indicators have generated signals for further growth. We do not exclude a bullish movement if SUGAR: D1 rises above the maximum since March 2017, the upper Bollinger band and the last 2 upper fractals: 18.5. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limitation is possible below the Parabolic signal, the lower Bollinger line, the 200-day MA and the long-term uptrend support line: 16. After opening a pending order, move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit / loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a deal, can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (16) without activating the order (18.5), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis​

Cold weather in Brazil can reduce crop yields. Will the increase in SUGAR quotes continue? Conab has cut its forecast for sugar production in Brazil for the 2020/2021 agricultural season to 41.3 million tonnes from its December forecast of 41.8 million tonnes. In the 2021/2022 season, the production of Brazilian sugar may be reduced by another 5.8% to 38.9 million tons. In June, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) expected the global sugar deficit in the 2021/2022 season to reach 2.7 million tonnes. Now its forecast has been revised towards an increase in the global deficit. The Singapore agro-industrial group Wilmar International has cut the forecast for the sugar cane crop in Brazil in the season 2021/2022 to a minimum in more than 10 years - 510 million tons from 530 million tons. According to Wilmar International, the harvest may be even smaller next season. Meteorological agencies Rural Clima and Somar Meteorlogia note that the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais is now experiencing the coldest weather in 27 years. This has already caused a powerful rise in coffee quotes.