Must understand that Forex is all about probabilities

SweetPrincess

Trader
May 9, 2017
117
23
24
40
We must understand that Forex is about risk analysis and probability.
There is no trader have tried or tested that a single method or strategy can always give us profit.
The key to success is to position ourselves in such a way that the losses are harmless while the profits are multiplied.
Such positioning is only possible by managing our risk allocations in accordance with an understanding of probability and risk management.
 
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GIC Markets

Trader
Jan 13, 2017
6
1
12
30
gicmarkets.com
Yes, I agree with you. This forex business is very risky and market movement can change any time. So no trading strategy is 100% profitable. You need to change strategy or modify your trading system to get maximum profit from Forex.
 
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Michelle Yeoh

Trader
Jul 9, 2017
83
8
9
42
Exactly, it is! There is no certainly, it’s all about probability! That’s way, pro traders work with a decent small amount of risk reward ratio! But, immature traders take high risk ratio to test their luck, of course it’s not proper way of trading.
 

Ary Barroso

Active Trader
Jul 9, 2017
907
63
39
32
Exactly, that’s the key point! There is nothing like obvious or guarantee in Forex! This is why, expecting 100% profit is an illusion.
 
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Uaredaty

Trader
Jan 19, 2019
54
2
24
28
Thank you for sharing this.
Strict on one strategy then test and implement it. If it work find the way to improve. If it doesn't work fix it. Always control risk management in our setup/money.
 

J_C_Anderson

Trader
Aug 15, 2018
64
8
19
40
The whole our life is based on probabilities, but we understand it clearly only in trading.
In fact, there are no other keys to success except dealing with probabilites connected with risk-reward ration. Those two components work together: you can improve your strategy just by improving one of them. For example, if your strategy has poor risk-reward ration, but relatively high win rate, it can be profitable. On the other side, if your risk-reward ratio is 1:10, you can loose in more than half of the trades but still be profitable (as for me, the best results were 1:13 and 1:15, but these were swing trades). It all depends of the strategy.
To adjust these criteria you can use backetsting on historical data(for example, with the help of software like Forex Tester). It is important as allows you to check all rules one by one and change values of each criteria withot long and time-consuming demo testing.
By the way, demo testing is also important to find out how your strategy will work in the real life.
 

Ann

Active Trader
Mar 4, 2018
68
9
29
27
My teacher said that there is no deal with more than 80% probability. 80% is the best probability, because even if the tests were 100%, still 20% should be given to the force majeure.
 
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Forex as well as the rest of markets are manipulated against the retail trader. It isn't a 50/50 proposition. You not only have to get the entry right, but exit as well. All without getting stopped out. The big Banks know where the money is (your trades) and trade against you. At this point you can include the probabilistic nature of the universe to your trading :)
 
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Helloyees

Trader
Mar 8, 2019
98
7
24
That's why you shouldn't fall for any ge rich quick scheme with courses on how to trade on Forex and something like that. It's all very versatile and unstable and only person who consistently making money is probably your broker, that's called business already.
 

Onanak

Trader
Feb 5, 2019
60
2
24
43
I agree that brokerage is business and usually they are the only participants in forex who always win. Still, 80% score from trader would be treated as highly successful trading. With good strategy, this probability really is achievable
 

Ary Barroso

Active Trader
Jul 9, 2017
907
63
39
32
I agree that brokerage is business and usually they are the only participants in forex who always win. Still, 80% score from trader would be treated as highly successful trading. With good strategy, this probability really is achievable
Yes they are! But, of course it’s not easy to run a broker within best trading features & technical issues! Costly & challenging!
 

Uaredaty

Trader
Jan 19, 2019
54
2
24
28
I think that in the beginning traders would need only a dissent broker to assist them with baby-steps. As they gain more experience, and apply some changes in trading methods and strategy, they will probably search for a different broker who is able better to support achievement of trading targets
 

Ary Barroso

Active Trader
Jul 9, 2017
907
63
39
32
I think that in the beginning traders would need only a dissent broker to assist them with baby-steps. As they gain more experience, and apply some changes in trading methods and strategy, they will probably search for a different broker who is able better to support achievement of trading targets
I see; many traders are using multiple trading brokers; maybe it’s a good choice! Although, I am not following this path!
 

Adam Jackson

Trader
Jun 15, 2019
68
2
9
25
Not simple trading strategy can help any retail forex trader. To be a winner, a trader must try to comprehend that forex trading is all about proper money management, supervision of risk and effective analysis and make decisions of trading based on all probabilities, win and lose.
There can be no traders who have earned money with the mere use of any single method or strategy without considering all probabilities here.
 

Onanak

Trader
Feb 5, 2019
60
2
24
43
I am also not dealing with multiple brokers as my current brokers offers good service and is very responsive, due, I dont need another one. If you are trying to keep your money safe, than you would need to apply risk and capital management strategies. It is your responsibility and not brokers
 

pippin

Trader
Jul 16, 2019
49
1
9
30
Could you please recommend any books about probability or stochastic processes which knowledge is suited for use in forex trading. Most of the books I read focus on derivatives like futures or options. I need something about currency pairs.
We must understand that Forex is about risk analysis and probability.
There is no trader have tried or tested that a single method or strategy can always give us profit.
The key to success is to position ourselves in such a way that the losses are harmless while the profits are multiplied.
Such positioning is only possible by managing our risk allocations in accordance with an understanding of probability and risk management.
 

larry_009

Trader
Jul 9, 2019
30
0
7
35
forex and probabilities are highly linked. Every trader trades by choosing those securities that have the highest success probabilities according to us. We often make decisions based on our intuitions and guess work. We let our emotions play. So yes, this is what is Forex all about. Just understand that never let playing with probabilities overpower logic. Look at the market trends and then work on the various possible trades.
 

Baazex

Trader
Oct 28, 2019
53
2
14
21
Forex trading is a business gives financial freedom like no other business provide in forex trading there is no tried trade pattern can claim 100% profit all the time , learning trading techniques and managing money well is the key Risk management is the factor which can safe a trader from loosing money.