Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/JPY: SUPPORT BY THE NEAREST "WINDOW"
12:16 19.06.2017

1497874349-8d84240c7eb443a280cf606afe1d46fc_1200x1200_q90.png


The last bullish "Engulfing" has been confirmed strongly, but we've got a bearish "Engulfing", which has a quite weak confirmation. So, the pair is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, we could have another bullish price movement.

1497874348-f3b4f772cd95bfbd91d6b53eb4cff0d2_1200x1200_q90.png


There's support by the nearest "Window". At the same time, we've got a bullish "Doji", which hasn't been confirmed yet. So, the current correction is likely going to be continued towards the 89 Moving Average.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_support_by_the_nearest_"window"_1679
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: WAVE (III) ABOUT TO END
12:20 19.06.2017

1497874770-30efbfb64c5e1fc0381956bc4071a533_1200x1200_q90.png


Wave 2 may have been formed, cause there's a pullback from 4/8 MM Level. Also, there's a bearish impulse in wave (i), so the price is rising in wave (ii). If we've got another pullback from 4/8 MM Level, bears are likely going to deliver wave (iii) in the short term.

1497874770-2bb89dd8937facfa792dd505cba8e78c_1200x1200_q90.png


The price has been rising since a pullback from 1/8 MM Level was formed. The main intraday target is 4/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for another decline in wave (iii).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_wave_(iii)_about_to_end_1680
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
AUD/USD: AUSSIE READY TO GO HIGHER
05:35 20.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7580-0.7600; resistance – 0.7670, 7700

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 0.7600; SL — 0.7580; TP1 — 0.7670; TP2 — 0.7700.
Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices supported by Kijun-sen and the Cloud.

1497936940-42a68b4bfa2f0515dfbaa054e9dbae66_1200x1200_q90.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_aussie_ready_to_go_higher_1697
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/JPY: DOLLAR IS OVERBOUGHT
05:37 20.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 111.20, 110.50; resistance – 111.90/112.00.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 111.90; SL — 120.10; TP1 — 111.20; TP2 — 110.500.
Reason: weak bullish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; a market is overbought and expected a correction movements.

1497937009-3dcc4d3b0e9d38341d309e86e7227f36_1200x1200_q90.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_dollar_is_overbought_1698
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
MORNING BRIEF FOR JUNE 20
05:49 20.06.2017

Fed Dudley was a superstar of yesterday’s trading sessions. In the absence of any significant economic data overnight, the market’s focus was on Fed member Dudley who gave an upbeat assessment to the US economy and forecasted a further increase in inflation rate due to tightening of the labor market. He also noted that Fed withdraws its monetary policy accommodation very judiciously, gradually so that it wouldn’t cause a recession. Dudley’s hawkish tone allowed the USD to regain its strength that consequently reverberated across the trading desk. Federal Reserve Chicago head Charles Evans a little hampered the USD rally today after he said that he would like to see more data confirming the surging inflation rates before hiking once more time. He does support a gradual reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet. This allowed the USD not to lose its ground.

1497937704-5fd02ae15c9b4693dc735e53a5434220_1200x1200_q90.jpg


USD/JPY rose to 111.65. Dudley’s effect was so strong that even Russia’s threat to target US warplanes in Syria failed to ruffle any risk-averse sentiment that would support safe-haven yen. The pair swiftly moved from neutral to bullish phase. We will be waiting for a further upside towards 112.00/112.20.

EUR/USD ticked a little bit higher in Tokyo morning. It is trading along the 1.1155 level. The single currency needs to break below 1.1105 so as the pair moved into a bearish phase. We cannot speak of the restoration of the uptrend unless EUR moves clearly above 1.2000 and makes some additional gains.

The British pound drifted lower during the EU-UK negotiations held yesterday in Brussels. Dudley’s comments sent it even lower to 1.2722. At the present moment, it is trading near 1.2740 against the USD. Today’s focus will be on the BOE’s Governor Mark Carney’s speech which is due at 10:30 am (MT time). Market participants will be curious to know his comments on the last week’s unexpected 5-3 vote to remain the cash rate unchanged. With annual consumer prices spiking to 2.9%, some BOE’s officials believe that a positive trade-off between supporting job and activity vs. returning inflation back to the target no longer exists. It would be interesting to know on whose side Carney is on.

Aussie dropped to 0.7585 yesterday on the news that Moody decided to cut the credit rating of the big four Australian banks to AA3 from AA2. Again, Dudley’s speech increased AUD’s losses. In today’s session, AUD/USD felt better, it rose above 0.7600. From here, the upsurge towards 0.7680 will be complicated given the yesterday’s unexpected drop. So, we expect to rise at least to 0.7535 in the short-term.

USD/CAD didn’t change its position from yesterday. It holds still at 1.3217. There was little support from oil prices as investors saw more signs of the rising crude production in the US, Libya, and Nigeria. OPEC-led output cuts seem to be no longer effective. Brent oil futures dropped to $46.78 yesterday. In Tokyo morning, they were trading near $49.95.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_june_20_1699
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
NZD/USD: KIWI VOTES FOR THE CORRECTION
06:11 20.06.2017

Recommendation: SELL 0,72 SL 0,7145 TP1 0,7085 TP2 0,701

On the NZD/USD daily chart, target 88.6% of the inverted Shark pattern has been achieved. At the present moment, there is a risk of a pullback towards 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% levels of the CD wave as part of the transformation of the Shark pattern into the pattern 5-0. To restore the uptrend, the Bulls need to update the June high.

1497940177-5dd8ed7651319b1e57d14728d724c161_1200x1200_q90.png


On the NZD/USD hourly chart, a reversal pattern 1-2-3 and a triangle were formed. A break of the diagonal support near 0.72 will create the prerequisites for the correction towards 0.7085 (target 88.6% of the Bat pattern) or lower.

1497940203-fb5c81ed3a220004b71069645f112867_1200x1200_q90.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd_usd:_kiwi_votes_for_the_correction_1701
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/USD: POUND DREAMS OF WAVES
06:13 20.06.2017

Recommendations:

BUY 1,291 SL 1,2855 TP1 1,291 TP2 1,294,

SELL 1,264 SL 1,2695 TP1 1,251, TP2 1,245.

On the GBP/USD daily chart, there is consolidation in the trading range of 1.264 - 1.28. If quotes move beyond the upper border of the range, the Wolfe Waves pattern will be realized. In contrast, a break of the support at 1.264 should activate the AB = CD pattern with a target 200% (1.245).

1497940358-10fb15c77258a991b0028080a64fb42d_1200x1200_q90.png


On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the Bears' failure to return quotes to the borders of the triangle will indicate their weakness. In contrast, a successful test of the resistance at 1.281 may result in the pullback of quotes towards 1.291 and 1.294.

1497940376-09dd8c2662b96ce14928333f055c5580_1200x1200_q90.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_pound_dreams_of_waves_1702
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: BROKEN UPTREND
07:26 20.06.2017

1497943518-d1659a7c22a0a720e4ef868b235a5b5d_1200x1200_q90.png


The price has broken the last uptrend, but the 89 Moving Average acted as support. However, the market is likely going to continue moving down towards the next support at 1.1131 - 1.1108. If we see a pullback from this area, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.1165.

1497943518-f8e473f9dd7a35e2f8ce00bd4b0aa56d_1200x1200_q90.png


There's a "Double Bottom" pattern, which has been confirmed. In this case, bulls are likely going to reach the closest resistance at 1.1181 - 1.1193 during the day. At the same time, if a pullback from these levels happens, bears will have a green light to catch the nearest support at 1.1131 - 1.1108.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_broken_uptrend_1705
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/USD: BULLS GOING TO TEST CLOSEST RESISTANCE
07:30 20.06.2017

1497943518-3ffbee90649a96d8fdd75862193d23ea_1200x1200_q90.png


There's a developing "Rising Wedge". The price is testing the lower side of this pattern. So, the pair is likely going to test support at 1.2705 - 1.2678. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area arrives, we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.2768 - 1.2793 as an intraday target.

1497943518-83df87a7caa2524f6abc11c665b53452_1200x1200_q90.png


The price is consolidating right under the broken "Wedge". In this case, bulls are likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.2768. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the next support at 1.2690 - 1.2672.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_bulls_going_to_test_closest_resistance_1706
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: ANOTHER BEARISH IMPULSE
10:58 20.06.2017

1497956217-e639336c99cbe7d02663e2b2b658fc58_1200x1200_q90.png


Wave 2 may have been formed like a zigzag, so there's a bearish impulse in wave (i). In this case, we're likely going to have another impulse in wave (iii) in the short term. The main intraday target is 2/8 MM Level.

1497956217-06395fd9395e8afd150e5eecc1ce1eac_1200x1200_q90.png


There's a pullback from 3/8 MM Level, so we've got a downward impulse in wave i. Wave ii is about to end, which means bears are likely going to deliver an impulse in wave iii of (iii) in the coming hours.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_another_bearish_impulse_1709
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: "DARK CLOUD" PATTERN
13:17 20.06.2017

1497964611-118b9540f436e39c9d8366fd81fbe63b_1200x1200_q90.png


The last "Dark Cloud" pattern led to the current decline. Also, the 89 Moving Average is acting as support, so the market is likely going to test the 55 MA in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will have a green light to push the price even lower.

1497964610-e826a522fc3d2d51544f35d8b20d2350_1200x1200_q90.png


The upper "Window" has acted as resistance, so we've got an "Engulfing" pattern on this level. At the same time, there's a bullish "Doji", so the pair is likely going to test the Moving Averages in the coming hours.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"dark_cloud"_pattern_1711
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/JPY: "HIGH WAVE" AND "THREE METHODS"
13:20 20.06.2017

1497964610-97d2dc9c20f28b9864077854b8ba71d5_1200x1200_q90.png


We've got a bearish "Harami" at the local high. Therefore, bears are likely going to test the 21 and 55 Moving Averages. If a pullback from these lines happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement towards the upper "Window".

1497964611-1cc75477cb6520ed52c367efd037f36c_1200x1200_q90.png


The last "Window" has been broken, but there're a "High Wave" and a "Three Methods" patterns, so the price is likely going to test this "Window" once again. If we see a pullback from this level, bulls will have an option to deliver a new local high.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_"high_wave"_and_"three_methods"_1712
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/AUD FALLING INSIDE MINOR IMPULSE WAVE 1
17:44 20.06.2017

GBP/AUD falling inside minor impulse wave 1
Next sell target - 1.6450
GBP/AUD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 1, which belongs to the sharp primary impulse wave ? from the start of May. The price earlier broke through the support zone lying between the round support level 1.7000 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp intermediate impulse wave (C) from the middle of March – which strengthened the bearish pressure on this pair. GBP/AUD is expected to fall to the next sell target at the next support level 1.6450 (previous resistance level from February).

1SJrHklvP.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_aud_falling_inside_minor_impulse_wave_1_1716
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/CAD REVERSED FROM RESISTANCE ZONE
17:46 20.06.2017

GBP/CAD reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 1.6520
GBP/CAD recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 1.7000 and the lower trendline of the daily up channel from January (acting as resistance now after it was broken recently). The downward reversal from this resistance zone accelerated the active minor C-wave of the active intermediate ABC correction (2) from the start of May. GBP/CAD is expected to fall to the next sell target at the next support level 1.6520 (low of the previous waves (a) and 2 and the target price for the completion of the active wave (2)).

1T6kfgQ6v.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_cad_reversed_from_resistance_zone_1717
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: EURO GOING TO 4W-LOWS
05:33 21.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.1060; resistance – 1.1140.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 1.1130; SL — 1.1150; TP1 — 1.1080; TP2 – 1.1060
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; the cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but falling Kijun-sen; the prices are on the 4W-lows.

1498023198-5974574d0f06c411e972e24d898d2405_1200x1200_q90.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_euro_going_to_4w_lows_1726
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/USD: POUND FORMED NEW LOCAL LOWS
05:34 21.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2570; resistance – 1.2650.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2570; SL — 1.2550; TP1 — 1.2650; TP2 — 1.2710.
Reason: narrow bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; the cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal; the prices made the new lows for the last two months and the marker is oversold.

1498023270-5838ef800660551113de2aff99712827_1200x1200_q90.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_pound_formed_new_local_lows_1727
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
MORNING BRIEF FOR JUNE 21
06:03 21.06.2017

These last two days passed without any key data releases, but with more UK political uncertainty (the UK government is still not formed), an extremely dovish Mark Carney overlaid with a significant downfall in oil prices.

The yen was the Constant Tin Soldier in the Asian session as it managed to fight the beefy USD. USD/JPY fell below 111.30 earlier today. The news about the recent North Korean missile test contributed to the JPY strengthening.

The British pound dropped to 1.2600 yesterday after BoE Governor Carney signaled that he is in no hurry to raise rates, putting a special emphasis on the weakness the British economy might further experience in the course of Brexit negotiations. While there are three MPC voters worrying about heightened inflation rates, Carney’s speech made market participants believe that the BoE will unlikely provide a rate hike by the end of this year. Tonight, we will continue to keep our focus on the GBP with the Queen’s speech to Parliament which is due at 11:30 GMT and the UK monthly public-sector net borrowing report.

The euro slumped to 1.1116 against the USD in the Asian session. The downward momentum is not as strong as USD Bulls would like it to be. A mixed set of Fed’s speeches made traders a little bit confused. Charles Evans and Robert Kaplan sounded dovish overnight. The former one said that he is getting very nervous in the light of a multi-month run of low inflation readings. Robert Kaplan said he needs more evidence that low inflation rates are temporary before enacting additional tightening measures. Fed Chair Yellen and NY’s Bill Dudley were explicitly hawkish as they were speaking of current Fed’s monetary policy cycle.

We don’t expect significant moves from EUR/USD today as no significant economic releases are seen on the horizon. Perhaps, only one is worthy – the US existing home sales report which is out at 17:00 GMT+3. At the present moment, the pair is trading at 1.1130 – a little bit higher from yesterday’s low. There is ample room for further EUR weakness towards the solid support at 1.1105. A break below this level will allow us to target the lower ones – 1.1070. The immediate resistance can be found at 1.1155 but the euro will have to put a great deal of effort to break it.

Aussie fell to 0.7555. The outlook for AUD/USD is still neutral though. The pair will likely trade in the range of 0.7525 – 0.7630 in the short-term without any significant economic releases that could spur buying/selling of the AUD.

The kiwi has also lost a little ground against USD. NZD/USD fell to 0.7225 in the Asian session notwithstanding the fact that the yesterday’s Global Dairy Auction ended with almost no change in the dairy prices.

USD/CAD is trading much higher from the weekly opening level – at 1.3283 from 1.3212 – mainly due to falling oil prices. Brent oil futures slumped to $45.45 yesterday as investors lost their faith in OPEC’s capacity to reduce oil glut despite with unprecedented compliance with the output deal. The oil stockpiles in a number of importing country do not shrink significantly.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_june_21_1728
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GOLD IS SQUEEZED IN THE CHANNEL
06:27 21.06.2017

On the daily chart of gold, quotes approached the lower border of the upward trading channel. A successful test of the support with the subsequent breakout of the neckline of the Head and shoulders pattern located near $1,230 may result in a quotes' downfall towards $1,210 and $1,190.

1498026310-13949dfae3b0539d022373f0d2e52ab3_1200x1200_q90.png


On the hourly chart of gold, the Head and Shoulders pattern has worked out. There is a change in the short-term trend or a pullback within the near-term upward trend. A rollback from $1,255 and $ 1, 260 levels may result in the opening of short positions.

1498026342-75c168b671d4ce827fca23907d85f114_1200x1200_q90.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gold_is_squeezed_in_the_channel__1731
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/JPY: YEN IS PLAYING WITH SHARK
06:31 21.06.2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, target 88.6% of the inverted Shark pattern has been achieved. The risks of the pullback towards 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% levels within the transformation of the Shark pattern into pattern 5-0 increased. Rebounds from the support can be used for the opening of long positions.

1498026582-64f17c74fa875560e8d8295c6bfd9a3d_1200x1200_q90.png


On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the Bears expect to return quotes within the borders of the downward trading channel after the realization of the Shark pattern. The Bulls have other plans. They will protect the 110.6 level trying to prevent the activation of the pattern.

1498026607-e6a7bebe3a62dd464dc6b4c6693d74bc_1200x1200_q90.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_yen_is_playing_with_shark_1732
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: BEARISH "FLAG"
07:06 21.06.2017

1498028672-88c458170eb5939142b6fa99d32ca21b_1200x1200_q90.png


The 89 Moving Average has been broken, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1108 - 1.1075. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.1108 - 1.1131.

1498028672-bf82fb4cb9d0d7a7fbc1fc3816c07d95_1200x1200_q90.png


The price is consolidating along support at 1.1131. Also, there's a bearish "Flag", so the pair is likely going to reach the closest support at 1.1108 - 1.1075. If we have a pullback from these levels, bulls will have a green light to deliver a local correction.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bearish_"flag"_1734