Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD forecasts from banks
2/22/2017

Barclays: political risk are market triggers, indeed, for the present time, but insufficient for throwing the euro off its stride.

Analysts expect EUR/USD to remain range-bound towards the end of the week. They note the economic data calendar doesn’t exhibit any evident catalyst for the present time. The European political calendar will be a “chef de pupitre” this week. Strategists bet on the further EUR depreciation, but according to them, it will be restrained, not truly expansive, as option-market pricing of French presidential election risks is a bit excessive.

They assume that despite a relative shift in the polls from François Fillon to Emmanuel Macron and rumor about a possible alliance of the left between Beno?t Hamon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Macron And François Fillon, in the end, will be likely winners in the second round by a wide margin over anti-European Marine Le Pen.

TD analysts stay short for next two months with a target to retest the level of 1.0340

TD analysts note that the euro stopped responding to economic data releases (yesterday’s irresponsiveness of the euro to the upbeat French and German manufacturing figures proves this statement) as market participants are predominantly preoccupied with the looming presidential elections in France. Marin Le Pen continues to inch higher in the polls making investors uneasy for a while. The recent news of the planning political alliance on the left clouds the outlook for the election. The rub here is that Marine Le Pen – group left candidates in the second round of the election could reduce turnout, helping Marine to win (this scenario be bearish for EUR/USD).

Analysts prefer to tactically remain short EUR against its major counterparts over the next two months and look for a retest of the recent lows near 1.0340.

UOB: technical signal

A move below 1.0520 was a signal of the EUR weakness. UOB analysts expect the prices to move lower towards the mid-January low of 1.0450/55, but any decline will be slow and grinding. Overall, only a move above 1.0620 would indicate that the euro managed to shrug off the persistent downward pressure.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12594

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to deliver a correction
2/22/2017

We’ve got a bearish “Three Methods”, which led to the current decline. Also, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue falling down towards the nearest support.

There’re an “Inverted Hammer” and a “Hammer”, but both patterns haven’t been confirmed yet. In this case, bears are likely going to continue pushing the price even lower during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12595

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: lower "Window" going to act as a support
2/22/2017

There’s a “Hanging Man”, which has been confirmed enough. So, the pair is likely going to test the lower “Window”, which could be a departure point for an upward correction.

The last “Shooting Star” led to the current decline. Considering that there isn’t any reversal pattern, the market is likely going to continue falling down in the short term. However, if a pullback from the lower “Window” happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12596

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" going to act as a resistance
2/23/2017

We’ve got a bullish “Hammer”, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a resistance on the 21 Moving Average. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

The price reached a resistance, so there’s a bearish “Harami”. So, bears are likely going to test the nearest support. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12605

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to test the "Window"
2/24/2017

There’s a possible bullish “Three Methods”, but the 21 Moving Average is acting as a resistance. Therefore, bulls are likely going to test the 55 Moving Average in the short term. If any bearish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

We’ve got a bearish “Harami”, so the price reached the nearest support. However, bears are likely going to move on, so the support could be tested once again. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12621

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bullish "Tweezers"
2/24/2017

The last “Tweezers” pattern has been confirmed, so the price came back to the nearest “Window”. Also, the 55 Moving Average is acting as a support. In this case, if a pullback from this line happens, bulls will be free to deliver a new upward price movement.

The lower “Window” is acting as a support. If any bullish pattern arrives later on, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance area.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12622

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: Aussie came across the wedge
2/24/2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart, bulls made another attempt to move towards the target 113% in the Shark inverted pattern. If the quotes fail to consolidate above the 0.7705 level, it will tell us about the weakness of buyers and increase the risk of rollback.

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, two expanding wedge patterns can be formed at once. But, first, the bears have to implement a junior model painted in red on the chart.

Recommendations:

SELL 0,77 SL 0,7755 TP 0,76, SELL 0,7665 SL 0,772 TP 0,7535,

BUY 0,772 SL 0,7665 TP 0,785.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12623

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: bears notices shark
2/24/2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, bulls failed to test the resistance at 1.3175. It is not possible to talk about the realization of the Wolf waves. Perhaps a new attempt will be more successful than the previous one. Meanwhile, there is a growing risk of another movement towards the lower border of the long-term upward trading channel.

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, a breakout of the resistance at 1.312 will lead to the return of the quotes within the boundaries of the previous upward trading channel. Alternatively, a drop below support at 1.308 will contribute to the implementation of the target 88.6% in the AB = CD pattern.

Recommendations:

BUY 1,312 SL 1,3065 TP 1,322,

BUY 1,303 SL 1,2975 TP 1,316.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12624

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for February 24
2/24/2017

Markets shifted their focus from the European continent to the US economy overnight. The Wall Street Journal published its interview with newly confirmed US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. He sounded quite measured and careful. The Secretary passed up the opportunity of accusing China of its currency manipulation, revealed Treasury Department’s intentions to lift economic growth, underlined that he and his colleagues are looking seriously at the Administration’s fiscal plan that includes border adjustment tax (it suggests taxing imports and subsidizing exports through a cash flow/VAT-style tax). This tax is widely expected to be a tailwind for the US dollar. Also, we got the Fed President Lockhart comments on the future path of the Fed’s rate hike. He elucidated the meaning of Fed’s “fairly soon” saying that it means that hike can appear in next 3 meeting. Well, it certainly conflicts with the views of the bulls; it is actually not soon enough. Maybe, we should consider incanting the Fed’s “we expect rate hikes fairly soon” and then, it finally raises its rates? Well, let’s give it a try.

EUR/USD edged up to 1.0580 in the course of the past sessions mainly because of the falling yields on the US Treasury notes,

USD/JPY spiked to 112.95 in the Tokyo morning but then failed to consolidate its position in that area having slid to 112.70. The economic calendar for this currency pair is very light today. We don’t expect significant swings/troughs from prices.

AUD/USD rose to 0.7720 in the Asian session. Earlier this morning, the RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated messages on monetary policy that further rate cuts are ruled out the bank had been sending before, but for the present time, they are consistent with country’s economic growth. Also, he didn’t dare to say that Aussie is overvalued. If commodity prices continue their rally, the Governor would expect a further appreciation of AUD.

Kiwi spiked to 0.7245 (61.8% Fibo retracement level from September 7 high) overnight but failed to advance further. In the Asian session, it slipped some points against its US counterpart. There won’t be any surprising news for the pair later today, enjoy sideways movement.

USD/CAD tumbled to 1.3080 due to a substantial upsurge in the oil prices. Brent oil futures rose to $56.60 thanks to high compliance among the OPEC members with the output cut agreement signed in November 2016. Today’s focus will on Canada’s consumer price report to be released at 15:30 MT time (a drop in the price component of IVEY PMI hints at a bit disappointing data).

GBP/USD was the major gainer overnight. The British pound jumped to 1.2560 mainly on the greenback’s weakness. The further upsurge will be complicated. The sterling will have to clear the resistance at 1.2610 to reassure the market participants in its strength. The only data release from the UK was the CBI retail sales that posted a quite upbringing headline. Another market trigger – the Scottish government discussing another Scottish independence referendum that might take place next year, after actual Brexit. Now, the politicians believe that they have all chance to win it.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12625

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: aussie under main resistance
2/24/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7690, 0.7600; resistance – 0.7720/30.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7730; SL — 0.7750; TP1 — 0.7600; TP2 — 0.7560.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the prices are under the daily resistance and overbought market.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12626

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: Dollar going lower
2/24/2017

Technical levels: support – 112.70, 112.20; resistance – 113.00, 113.60.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 113.00; SL — 113.20; TP1 — 112.20; TP2 — 112.00.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are formed a new local lows.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12627

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, February 24th
2/24/2017

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 19 569 ? + 21 393 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0602; 1.0618; 1.0642; 1.0673
Closest support levels 1.0578; 1.0555; 1.0537; 1.0510
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0578, with target points at 1.0555 and 1.0537
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0602 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0618 and 1.0642
USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 616 ? + 1 038 ?
Closest resistance levels 112.74; 113.01; 113.22; 113.55
Closest support levels 112.60; 112.38; 112.16; 111.84
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 112.74, with target points at 113.01 and 113.22
Alternative scenario Moving below 112.60 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 112.38 and 112.16
USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 105 ? + 205 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3111; 1.3129; 1.3154; 1.3200
Closest support levels 1.3070; 1.3029; 1.2970; 1.2898
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3111, with the target points at 1.3129 and 1.3154
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3070 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3029 and 1.2970
More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12628

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to test Moving Averages
2/24/2017

We’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, so the price reached a resistance at 1.0588. At the same time, the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.0619 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0552 – 1.0506.

Bulls faced a resistance on the 89 Moving Average, so the price is consolidating. Also, there’s a possible “Pennant”, so the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.0607 – 1.0619. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.0560 – 1.0552.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12629

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: broken "Triangle"
2/24/2017

All Moving Averages have been broken, so the price faced a resistance at 1.2548, which led to the current consolidation. Meanwhile, there’s an opportunity to have an upward movement towards the next resistance at 1.2581 – 1.2630. If a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.2548 – 1.2509.

There’s a “Pennant”, so bulls are likely going to test a resistance at 1.2481 – 1.2599 during the day. At the same time, if a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an option to have a decline in the direction of the nearest support at 1.2548.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12630

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for Feb.27- March 3
2/24/2017

Results of the past week:

GBP/USD spiked to 1.2560 in the course of the past week after Fed’s senior officials toned down expectation of a March hike and the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin failed to provide substantial details on the upcoming tax reforms. The economic calendar for GBP was light this week with UK fourth quarter GDP data being revised up to 0.7% and inflation report hearings hardly bringing any news.

With no significant fundamentals on the docket the pound has strengthened mainly due to the US dollar weakness.

Upcoming events:

Next week, the FOMC voting and non-voting members will be extremely talkative. Don’t miss Dallas President Robert Kaplan speaking on Monday and Wednesday, Fed’s Governor Lael Brainard – on Thursday, and Evans, Powell, Fischer and, most importantly Fed’s Chair Yellen all giving their comments on Friday. As you struggle to unravel the effect of their speeches, you might consider looking at the chart below exhibiting for hawks and doves at the FOMC.

Another focus will on the UK manufacturing and construction PMI indexes, US preliminary GDP, CB consumer confidence index and ISM non-manufacturing and manufacturing PMI.

With strong economic data and insufficient hawkishness of the FOMC members, the sterling may well extend its gains next week. A decision of the Scottish government to hold another referendum on the Scottish Independence from the UK might clip the pound’s wings and send it into the negative territory.

Technical picture:

From a technical point of view, an advance above the resistances at 1.2580/1.2620 levels, should favor additional gains up to 1.2705 (February high). On the downside, there are some supports located at 1.2400 (100-day MA) and 1.2380 (the upper border of Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe) that can be tested in case of the breakout of 1.2475 level.

Outlook:

The GBP/USD outlook for the present moment is neutral with immediate pressure on the upside in case of the breakout of 1.2580/1.2620 resistances, and possible rollback in case of a move below 1.2470.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12631

 

[riki143]

cAUD/USD: outlook for Feb.27 - March 2
2/24/2017
Results of the past week:

Aussie has been one of the greatest beneficiaries of the recent USD selling, popping up above 0.7700. In the beginning of the past week, the RBA Governor Philip Lowe highlighted the bank’s unwillingness to cut rates. He also said that RBA is not going to push harder on reducing unemployment and getting inflation rates back into the targeted band. In his Friday’s testimony before the House Economics Committee, he said nothing that could surprise the markets. On the commodity front, iron ore, copper, coking coal and steel prices extended their recent gains offering additional stimulus to AUD.

Upcoming events:

Next week we would recommend you to focus on the Australian current account and trade balance data, quarterly GDP and building approvals updates. Pay closer attention to the highlights of the FOMC members speeches, US manufacturing data, CB consumer confidence report and core PCE index.

Aussie may rise higher against its US counterpart if US policymakers refuse to give more details on the tax policies, while Fed’s officials keep repeating their favorite “a rate hike will be delivered fairly soon” instead of actually providing it.

Technical picture:

AUD/USD may extend its gains in the upcoming week. But there could be a corrective movement since present upward movement is lacking momentum. The closing of the today’s NY session could give us some signs of further path of the pair. A close above 0.7700 level would make us believe in the continuation of the rally towards the nearest resistance levels at 0.7740 (February 23 high), 0.7780 (November 8, 2016 high). If quotes fail to hold their current position, wait for the corrective movement towards the supports at 0.7670 (near 100-H4 MA and lower border of Ichimoku cloud), 0.7610.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12633

 

[riki143]

US dollar: ourlook for Feb. 27 - Mar. 3
2/24/2017

Fundamentals: The main disappointing factor for the American currency was the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. Many traders expected the minutes to turn out hawkish, because the recent comments of the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen were hawkish. However, the central bank’s statement released on Feb. 1 right after the meeting was dovish, and the minutes echoed this dovishness. No wonder that the USD got hit. In addition, the new US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that that any policy steps the Trump administration takes would likely have a limited impact this year. As a result, the bullish impulse provided by Trump’s pledge to unveil “phenomenal” tax plan evaporated.

Upcoming events: US economic calendar includes some important data releases (durable goods orders, pending home sales, prelim GDP Chicago PMI, CB consumer confidence, core PCE price index, ISM manufacturing & services PMIs) as well as the many speeches of the FOMC members (doves Evans, Brainard and Yellen, hawk Fischer and Kaplan and Powell who are in between). The PCE inflation data released on Wednesday is the key release to watch.

Technical picture: US dollar index made another top near 101.70. The upside was once again limited by the 50-day MA at 101.35. The currency now looks vulnerable for decline to 100.40 (last week’s low, 100-day MA) and 100.00 (psychological level).

Outlook: Comments from the Fed may clarify the picture somewhat, but given the lack of action from Trump on fiscal stimulus, central bank officials will likely sound cautious. Thus, the bearish turn of events is more likely.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12636

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: ourlook for Feb. 27 - Mar. 3
2/24/2017

Fundamentals: It was an eventful week for the euro with a significant decline first and the moderate recovery later. The euro keeps feeling negative pressure from the fears about anti-European Union rhetoric from Marine Le Pen ahead of the first round of French elections in April. In addition, the debate about Greek debt relief has once again resurfaced adding to the market’s concerns. The euro area’s preliminary PMI data for both manufacturing and services sectors rose to new cyclical highs but failed to provide support for the single currency. The main thing that let EUR/USD turn upwards was the weakness of the US dollar.

Upcoming events: There will be some European economic releases to pay attention to in the coming days: German retail sales and preliminary CPI, as well as CPI and retail sales for the entire currency union.

Technical picture: EUR/USD tested 1.0490, but, as we expected, the area of 1.0500 provided support. Since then the euro managed to recover forming a bullish pattern. Potential targets lie at 1.0620/30. Further resistance levels lie at 1.0660 and 1.0700. Support is at 1.0570 and 1.0530.

Outlook: If the region’s inflation figures surprise to the upside and the Fed officials cool down the rate hike prospects, the euro will have a chance to strengthen further. Beware, however, of political risks that can make the single currency once again go for support. Trade with stops!

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12637

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: ourlook for Feb. 27 - Mar. 3
2/24/2017

Fundamentals: Japan’s trade surplus narrowed in January, but February flash manufacturing PMI was very encouraging. All in all, news from Japan have a minor impact on the market. Risk sentiment should remain the primary driver of USD/JPY.

Upcoming events: In the coming days, Japan will release information on industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, household spending and consumer prices.

Technical picture: USD/JPY formed a lower interim top just below 113.80. In fact, this top consists of 2 highs, and the second one is lower than the first. Below Feb. 12 low at 112.60 the pair is extremely vulnerable to a decline to 111.70/60 (100-day MA, top of the weekly Ichimoku, February lows, 38.2% Fibo of September-December advance). A decline below this are will open the way for a deeper fall towards 110.00. Resistance is at 113.00, 113.20 and 114.00.

Outlook: Taking into account the European political uncertainty, event risk points at potentially higher Japanese yen. As a result, the bearish scenario is more likely, so we favor USD/JPY shorts.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12638

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Monday, February 27th
2/25/2017

* Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Monday after 01:50 CT (Central Time) *

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest -?- -?-
Closest resistance levels 1.0570; 1.0590; 1.0606; 1.0631
Closest support levels 1.0538; 1.0513; 1.0479; 1.0439
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0570, with target points at 1.0590 and 1.0606
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0538 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0513 and 1.0479

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest -?- -?-
Closest resistance levels 1.2473; 1.2494; 1.2513; 1.2539
Closest support levels 1.2448; 1.2422; 1.2398; 1.2367
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2448, with the target points at 1.2422 and 1.2398
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2473 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2494 and 1.2513

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest -?- -?-
Closest resistance levels 112.23; 112.46; 112.79; 113.22
Closest support levels 111.93; 111.71; 111.51; 111.21
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 112.23, with target points at 112.46 and 112.79
Alternative scenario Moving below 111.93 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 111.71 and 111.51

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest -?- -?-
Closest resistance levels 1.3113; 1.3141; 1.3189; 1.3257
Closest support levels 1.3086; 1.3067; 1.3028; 1.2970
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3113, with the target points at 1.3141 and 1.3189
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3086 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3067 and 1.3028

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12639