Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
Key option levels for Wednesday, January 4th
1/4/2017

EUR/USD

EURUSD(96).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest - 7 417 ? + 21 502 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0451; 1.0487; 1.0505; 1.0529
Closest support levels 1.0410; 1.0394(?); 1.0370; 1.0339
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0410, with target points at 1.0394 and 1.0370
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0451 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0487 and 1.0505

GBP/USD

GBPUSD(88).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 97 ? + 32 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2290; 1.2310; 1.2337; 1.2372
Closest support levels 1.2251; 1.2232; 1.2194; 1.2164
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2290, with target points at 1.2310 and 1.2337
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2251 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2232 and 1.2194

USD/CAD

USDCAD(82).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 236 ? + 8 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3421; 1.3439; 1.3475; 1.3503
Closest support levels 1.3398; 1.3367; 1.3339; 1.3314
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3421, with the target points at 1.3439 and 1.3475
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3398 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3367 and 1.3339

AUD/USD

AUDUSD(1).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 163 ? + 386 ?
Closest resistance levels 0.7268; 0.7307; 0.7333; 0.7353
Closest support levels 0.7201; 0.7168; 0.7135; 0.7104
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7201, with the target points at 0.7168 and 0.7135
Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7268 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7307 and 0.7333

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11931
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: bearish "Shooting Star"

0401eurusdW.png


A bearish trend is still on the table, so the middle of the last huge black candle acted as a resistance. Also, there’s a bearish “Three Methods” pattern. If it confirms, the market is likely going to continue falling down until any bullish pattern arrives.

0401eurusdD.png


We’ve got a “Shooting Star” at the local high, which has been confirmed enough. However, bulls are likely gong to test the nearest resistance once again. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to deliver a new low shortly.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11932
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/JPY: bulls ready to move on
1/4/2017

0401usdjpyW.png


The price has tested the nearest resistance again, but we still don’t have any bearish pattern. Also, the last candles have been closed under the middle of the huge white candle. In this case, bulls are likely going to break the resistance soon.

0401usdjpyD.png


We’ve got a correction, which is taking place on the Daily chart. So, there’s bearish patterns such a “Shooting Star”, a “High Wave” and a “Harami”. Meanwhile, there’s an opportunity to have another test of the closest support. If we see a pullback from this level, the last high is likely going to be broken.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11933
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: wave (iii) is about to start
1/4/2017

Image20170104152341001.png


Wave (i) has ended on 1/8 MM Level, so the price is rising in wave (ii). Previously, we’ve got a zigzag in wave [ii]. So, if a pullback from 2/8 MM Level happens in the short term, bears are likely going to deliver a bearish impulse in wave (iii).

Image20170104152341002.png


There’re a bearish impulse in wave (i) and a bullish impulse in wave a. So, wave c of (ii) is likely going to test 4/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for another decline.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11934
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
AUD/USD reversed from support area
1/4/2016

AUD/USD reversed from support area
Next buy target - 0.7320
AUD/USD continues to rise strongly inside the minor impulse wave (i) – which belongs to the impulse wave 3- which started earlier - when the pair reversed up sharply from the support zone lying between the major support level 0.7150 (low of the earlier intermediate ABC correction (2) from May and the previous sell target set for this currency pair) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

AUD/USD is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7320 (previous powerful support level from November). Strong support remains at the aforementioned support level 0.7150.

AUDUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-04_1624_PM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11935
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
AUD/CHF rising inside minor corrective wave 2
1/4/2017

AUD/CHF rising inside minor corrective wave 2
Next buy target - 0.7500
AUD/CHF continues to rise inside the minor corrective wave 2, which started earlier - when the pair reversed up from the support zone surrounding the powerful support level 0.7270 (which reversed the price multiple times from July, as can be seen below), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upward impulse from the middle of June.

AUD/CHF is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7500 (target price calculated for the termination of the active minor correction 2).

AUDCHF_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-04_1624_PM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11936
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: bullish "Thorn"
1/5/2017

5-1-2017-EUR-H4.png


We’ve got a bullish “Thorn”, which led to the current upward correction. The 89 Moving Average is acting as a resistance. However, bulls are likely going to break the downtrend, so we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.0655 as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support between the levels 1.0461 – 1.0419.

5-1-2017-EUR-H1.png


The price has broken all Moving Averages. Despite of a resistance at 1.0552, the market is likely going to achieve the next area at 1.0590 – 1.0655 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.0524 – 1.0504 afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11939
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/USD: bulls going to break the last high
1/5/2017

5-1-2017-GBP-H4.png


The pair faced a support at 1.2250 twice, so we’ve got a possible “Double Bottom” pattern. In this case, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish correction towards an area between the 89 Moving Average and the closest resistance at 1.2418. If a pullback from these levels happens, we should keep an eye on a support at 1.2309 – 1.2270 as an intraday target.

5-1-2017-GBP-H1.png


There’s a “Double Bottom”, which has been confirmed enough, so bulls are pushing the market higher. Also, we’ve got a “Pennant” here. Therefore, the price is likely to continue moving up towards a resistance at 1.2359 – 1.2386. If we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to deliver a downward correction in the direction of the nearest support at 1.2323 – 1.2309.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11940
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: Euro returned into the Cloud
1/5/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0510, 1.0470; resistance – 1.0610.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0610; SL — 1.0630; TP1 — 1.0510; TP2 – 1.0470.

Reason: bearish mood of Ichimoku Cloud; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but there is a narrow channel of Tenkan and Kijun; the prices are in the Cloud; strong resistance of Senkou Span B.

01-eurusdh4(75).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11941
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/USD: Pound doesn’t want to fall down
1/5/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2300; resistance – 1.2350, 1.2410.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2300; SL — 1.2280; TP1 — 1.2350; TP2 — 1.2410.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the rising Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are in the Cloud after bouncing from the bottom border of the Cloud.

02-gbpusdh4(60).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11942
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
Key option levels for Thursday, January 5th
1/5/2017

EUR/USD

EURUSD(97).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 29 530 ↑ - 17 656 ↓
Closest resistance levels 1.0560; 1.0586; 1.0619; 1.0640
Closest support levels 1.0487; 1.0460; 1.0442; 1.0416
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0560, with target points at 1.0586 and 1.0619
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0487 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0460 and 1.0442

GBP/USD

GBPUSD(89).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 286 ↑ + 47 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.2342; 1.2366; 1.2389; 1.2421
Closest support levels 1.2312; 1.2294; 1.2267; 1.2232
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2342, with target points at 1.2366 and 1.2389
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2312 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2294 and 1.2267

USD/CAD


USDCAD(83).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 329 ↑ + 151 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.3310; 1.3328(?); 1.3369; 1.3396
Closest support levels 1.3270; 1.3243; 1.3221; 1.3196
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3310, with the target points at 1.3328 and 1.3369
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3270 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3243 and 1.3221

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11944
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: "Engulfing" stopped bulls
1/5/2017

0501eurusdD.png


There’s a consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Also, we’ve got a “Shooting Star”, but there’s a resistance by the 21 Moving Average. So, the market is likely going to continue moving down until any bullish pattern arrives.

0501eurusdH4.png


We’ve got a bearish “Engulfing”, cause the price reached an important resistance. In this case, there’s an opportunity to have a local decline. At the same time, bulls are likely going to test the resistance once again.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11947
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/JPY: bulls going to test "Window"
1/5/2017

0501usdjpyD.png


We’ve got plenty of bearish patterns such a “Shooting Star”, a “High Wave” and a “Harami”, which all have been confirmed enough. So, the price is likely going to test the nearest support by the last “Three Methods” pattern. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to test the last high again.

0501usdjpyH4.png


The price tested the nearest support twice, so we’ve got a “Hammer”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, bulls are likely going to get a resistance on the closest “Window”, which could be a departure point for another decline.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11948
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: wave (ii) could be continued
1/5/2017

Image20170105160313001.png


Wave (i) ended on 1/8 MM Level, so we’ve got an upward correction, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. The main target for wave (ii) is 3/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for another impulse in wave (iii) of [iii].

Image20170105160313002.png


We’ve got a bullish impulse, which could be wave a. Therefore, bears are likely going to form wave b in the short term. At the same time, if we see a pullback from 3/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have bullish wave c of (ii).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11949
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD reversed from strong support level 1.0400
1/5/2017

EUR/USD reversed from strong support level 1.0400
Next buy targets - 1.0600 and 1.0660
EUR/USD continues to rise after the recent upward reversal form the support zone lying between the strong round support level 1.0400 and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing (which is the second consecutive Bullish Engulfing pattern which was formed recently near this support zone).

Given the clear bullish divergence that can be seen on the daily Stochastic indicator - EUR/USD can be expected to rise further toward the next buy targets at the resistance levels 1.0600 and 1.0660 (top of the previous minor correction (ii)).

EURUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-05_1600_PM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11950
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/CHF reached sell target 1.0200
1/5/2017

USD/CHF reached sell target 1.0200
Next sell target - 1.0060
USD/CHF continues to fall after the recent breakout of the support level 1.0200, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level accelerated the active downward correction – which started earlier – when the pair reversed down sharply from the powerful, multi-month resistance level 1.0330, as can be seen from the daily USD/CHF chart below.

USD/CHF is expected to fall further in the direction of the next sell target at the pivotal support level 1.0060 (which has been reversing the price from the start of December). Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned price level 1.0200.

USDCHF_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-05_1557_PM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11951
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
Your volatility calendar for January
1/5/2017

January 6, 15:30 MT time

US Nonfarm Payrolls

This report is the strongest Forex market mover. The indicator shows how many jobs were created in the US during the past month. Along with NFP the US Department of Labor will publish unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. The Federal Reserve keeps a close eye on these figures while making its monetary policy decisions. As a result, the release has a great impact on the US dollar in all currency pairs.

American central bank raised its main interest rate by 25 basis points in December and forecasted 3 rate hikes in 2017. Whether the Fed follows this scenario largely depends on the NFP strength. The Fed’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen claimed that although the state of the US labor market has improved, challenges still remain, so this release will once again draw the market’s attention.

Fotolia_95848309_S.jpg


January 11, 11:30 MT time

British Manufacturing Production

Manufacturing production is one of the main barometers of the UK economic health as it reflects producers’ responsiveness to the changes in the business cycle.

To tell the truth, British industrial production remains a cause of concern due to the prolonged uncertainty over the EU-UK trade relationship. Another reason is that the UK industrial sector lacks structural competitiveness. The previous release of the indicator showed a drop in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by the UK manufacturers hinting on the possibility of Britain’s falling into recession after Brexit. The release at 11:30 MT time will surely have an impact on GBP.

January 13, 15:30 MT time

US Retail Sales & Producer Prices

US retail sales & producer prices are the so-called pace indicators for the US economy. US retail sales data reflect the buying activity of the US citizens, while producer price index shows the changes in the prices of finished goods and services supplied to the market for sales. Higher costs tend to eat into real wages and hit consumers’ purchasing power. Heightened rates of consumer inflation may push the Fed to raise interest rates. All in all, higher readings of these indicators are good for the USD bulls.

The release will take place at 15:30 MT time.

1x-1.jpg


Chinese GDP & Industrial Production

China will publish its economic growth data for Q4 and December industrial production at 04:00 MT time.

China is the world’s fastest growing economy, so its economic performance matters to all Forex traders. Note that Chinese economy has been experiencing a slowdown during the past several years, so market participants will be keen on finding out whether this trend continues.

Risk-sensitive currencies will be most affected by the release. If Chinese figures exceed forecast, we expect Australian and New Zealand’s dollars to strengthen. If the release disappoints, it will be a good time for buying the safe havens like Japanese yen and Swiss franc.

January 18, 17:00 MT time

BOC Rate Statement

The Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its interest rate decision at 17:00 MT time. Short-term interest rates represent one of Canadian dollar’s key drivers.

At its December meeting Canadian central bank didn’t change its benchmark rate from 0.50%. The BoC was encouraged by higher oil prices, improving domestic economic data and weaker national currency.

Traders will be looking for hints on the BoC’s future intentions in its monetary policy report, rate statement and the following conference. Currency pairs with CAD will feel the impact of these events.

canada-cenbank-bank-of-canada-governor-stephen-poloz-oct-19-2016.jpg


January 19, 15:30 MT time

ECB Press Conference

The European Central Bank’s policy is behind most trends of the single currency. The ECB extended its bond-buying program until December 2017 at its last meeting. This decision provoked a selloff in the euro.

Traders are awaiting the press conference of the ECB head Mario Draghi in order to see what’s his take on the European economy and whether the central bank is still confident about the extremely loose monetary policy it has chosen. The press conference is to start at 15:30 MT time.

ECB_Press_Conference_pushes_EUR_USD_Lower.png


January 23, 11:00 MT time

German Ifo Business Climate

German Ifo business climate will be released at 11:00 MT time. This indicator provides one of the most reliable projections for the country’s future economic growth. Changes in the business sentiment can produce a hefty market impact. The latest report showed that German economy may be back in the fast lane after its recent slowdown. The euro tends to rise if the released figures exceed analysts’ expectations.

January 25, 02:30 MT time

Australian CPI

Australia releases inflation figures once in a quarter. This release is one of the benchmarks for the policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Note that Australian CPI growth picked up in Q2 and Q3 after posting a negative reading in the first 3 months of 2016. If you trade Australian dollar, don’t miss this release!

grade-inflation-performance-review-crop-620x250.jpg


January 26, 11:30 MT time

British Prelim GDP

British preliminary Q4 GDP will be published at 11:30 MT time.

British GDP is the primary indicator of the country’s economic activity. It is believed to be one of the key data releases that impacts the exchange rate of the pound. A reading which is better than the consensus forecast is bullish for the sterling.

Countries-falsifying-economic-data-How-statistics-reveal-fraudulent-figures_knowledge_standard.jpg


January 27, 15:30 MT time

US Advance GDP

This is the broadest measure of American economic activity. It will be the first information about the US economic growth in the last 3 months of 2016. Market participants will scrutinize this macroeconomic gauge, and so it will have a sizeable impact on the US dollar.

January 31, 12:00 MT time

European CPI Flash Estimate

The euro area will release consumer inflation figures for January at 12:00 MT time. Inflation data is important for the euro’s exchange rate as rising prices lead the central bank to raising interest rates. Higher rates, in turn, help to increase demand for the euro making the rate go up. As a result, the release should be a significant driver of EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and other pairs containing the European currency.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11865
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/JPY & US NFP (December): Will the USD restart the bullish bias today?
1/6/2017

Today at 13:30 GMT will be released the numbers from the Non-Farm Payrolls for December. The NFP data comes strong following a strong gain posted in November, where the US economy added 178,000 jobs, while the unemployment change remained untouched at 4.6%. Market’s analysts are expecting that NFP will remain around the latest levels from November, but the unemployment rate could expect an increase of 4.7%. If numbers come above the expectation, we can start to see a strong USD demand.

Our technical analysis for USD/JPY at H1 chart is still calling for more downside, as the pair is forming a lower low pattern below the resistance level of 115.60. If it manages to break below the 115.31 level, then it can extend the decline towards 114.81. The structure from January 3rd session is a bearish impulsive in terms of Elliott Wave and we can expect some kind of consolidation around 114.81.

USDJPYH1(10).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11952
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: "Double Top" stopped bullish rally
1/6/2017

6-1-2017-EUR-H4.png


There’s an upward correction, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Bulls have broken the downtrend, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.0552 – 1.0524 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish movement, so we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.0655 as a possible intraday target.

6-1-2017-EUR-H1.png


The price faced a resistance at 1.0629, so we’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed by the last “Flag”. In this case, bears are likely going to test a support at 1.0552 – 1.0524 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0590 – 1.0655 afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11956
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/USD: bears going to test Moving Averages
1/6/2017

6-1-2017-GBP-H4.png


Bulls found a resistance at 1.2418, which is straightened by the 89 Moving Average. Also, there’s a “Double Top”, so the price is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average in the short term. At the same time, if a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an option to have another upward movement.

6-1-2017-GBP-H1.png


The last downtrend has been broken, so the price was rising. However, there’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. So, bears are likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2334 – 1.2323, which could be a departure point for a bullish price movement. In this case, we could have a new high soon.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11957