Market moving up? No reason yet to celebrate

TraderNovo

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Jan 25, 2016
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We don’t want to kill the vibe, but in order to claim latest market movements up are solid, we have to have more confirmation in the near future.

In the past 2 weeks the DOW30 recover 7.2% after falling 13.1% between December 15 to end of January 16. The S&P recover 8.6% after dropping 11.9% in the same period. The recent upbeat momentum left investors breathing a sigh of relief, but yet we can say the downfall is behind us.

Recently, mixed data is adding pressure to the markets. Moody’s cut china credit rating to negative, reflecting worries about china’s debt burden. As addition, European banks concern is still lingering with Barclay’s cutting its dividend to save capital.

So maybe it’s early to celebrate? markets professionals state that in the last market crash, there were also couple of up corrections before the market fall again. We can say that it happened because of a global financial crisis, but then again, we confirmed post factum that it was a global market crisis.

Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Sheets points “Bear market corrections typically lasted 35 days before resuming the downtrend. The current correction is still young in terms of duration (35% through), although not as much in terms of magnitude.”