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[QUOTE="MikhailLF, post: 166823, member: 42242"] Morning Market Review 2019-07-08 08:24 (GMT+2) EUR/USD On Friday, the euro fell significantly against the US dollar updating local lows of June 19. The reason for the emergence of a confident downward dynamics were strong data on the US labor market. The number of nonfarm payrolls in June increased by a record 224K after growth by 72K last month. Analysts had expected an acceleration of positive dynamics only by 160K, which seemed to be a very optimistic estimate. The unemployment rate in June rose from 3.6% to 3.7%, while the average hourly wage did not change from the previous 3.1% YoY. The euro was pressured by German data. The production orders in May decreased by 2.2% MoM and 8.6% YoY, which was significantly worse than the expected values of –0.1% MoM and −5.7% YoY. Today, investors are focused on a block of macroeconomic statistics from Germany on the industrial output and the trade balance for May. GBP/USD The British pound closed last week with a confident decline against the US dollar. The growth of "bearish" activity was connected to unexpectedly strong employment data in the June report on the US labor market. Instead of the planned 160K, the US economy added 224K of nonfarm payrolls, which heightened hopes of abandoning the interest rate cut during the July meeting of the Fed. However, in the monetary policy report, the regulator will point out a slowdown in GDP growth, despite rising consumption and some positive trends in the labor market. The wording remains the same and the Fed promises to act "according to the situation". Published on Friday, macroeconomic statistics from the United Kingdom was ambiguous. The Halifax home price index in June fell by 0.3% MoM after growth of 0.4% MoM in May. Analysts were expecting a decline of −0.2% MoM. AUD/USD The Australian dollar dropped significantly against the US one at the end of last week, interrupting another growth attempt and returning to the levels of the beginning of the month. This market reaction was caused by the publication of strong data on employment in the US, which strengthened the arguments in favor of maintaining the Fed's current monetary policy. The Australian dollar remains pressured amid the lack of progress in the US-China trade negotiations, but the macroeconomic statistics from Australia provides moderate support to the instrument. On Friday, investors were optimistic about the data on the AiG Construction PMI. In June, the index rose from 40.4 to 43.0 points, above market expectations. Today, the instrument is supported by data on the number of vacancies. In June, the ANZ index showed a steady growth of 4.6% MoM after a decrease of 8.2% MoM last month. USD/JPY The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Friday, updating local highs of June 18. At the end of the week, confident support for the US currency was provided by data on the US labor market for June, which reflected a sharp increase in nonfarm payrolls by 224K (with a forecast of 160K). At the same time, the report indicated an increase in unemployment and a slowdown in the average hourly wage MoM in June. Published on Friday, macroeconomic statistics from Japan was ambiguous. The index of coincident indicators in May rose from 102.1 to 103.2 points, while the index of leading indicators decreased from 95.9 to 95.2 points. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. The yen is pressured by mixed macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Bank lending slowed in June from 2.6% to 2.3% YoY, while the forecast was 2.8% YoY. The demand for machine-building products in May fell by 7.8% MoM after a growth of 5.2% MoM last month. Oil Oil prices rose moderately on July 5, despite the general strengthening of the dollar. Quotes are supported by growing tensions around Iran, as well as by the OPEC+ decision to extend the agreement on limiting oil supplies for another 9 months. In addition, investors are optimistic about the resumption of the US-China trade negotiations this week, counting on signals on the industrial activity increase in China. [/QUOTE]
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