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[QUOTE="MikhailLF, post: 166633, member: 42242"] Morning Market Review 2019-07-03 08:32 (GMT+2) EUR/USD On July 2, the euro traded in both directions, ending the day session with almost zero results. The reason for the emergence of uncertain dynamics was ambiguous macroeconomic data from Germany and the Eurozone, as well as the aggravation in US-European trade relations. Additional pressure on the euro is exerted by the "dovish" rhetoric of the ECB, which is considering the possibility of further reducing negative interest rates and expanding the quantitative easing program. However, the latter factor is balanced by the likelihood of a reduction in the Fed interest rate at the July meeting. Statistics from Germany released on Tuesday showed a decline in retail sales in May by 0.6% MoM after a decrease by 2.0% MoM last month. Analysts expected positive dynamics of 0.5% MoM. The Eurozone data indicated a stronger slowdown in industrial inflation. In May, the producer price index slowed from 2.6% YoY to 1.6% YoY, with a forecast of 1.7% YoY. GBP/USD On Tuesday, the British pound showed a steady decline against the US dollar updating local lows of June 19. Negative macroeconomic statistics from the UK contributed to the development of the negative dynamics of the instrument, which continues to strengthen the negative outlook for the economy against the background of the upcoming Brexit. The house prices index from Nationwide in June showed an increase of 0.1% MoM after a decline of 0.2% MoM in May. Analysts were expecting more significant growth of 0.2% MoM. At the same time, the Construction PMI in June fell from 48.6 to 43.1 points, contrary to forecasts of growth to 49.3 points. The negative was added by the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, who spoke at the annual local government conference in Bournemouth. The speech was almost entirely devoted to the economic risks of trade wars and the threat of a Brexit without a deal. AUD/USD The Australian dollar rose against the US one on July 2, having won back part of the losses suffered at the beginning of the week. It is curious that the growth of the instrument proceeded amid the expected decision of the RBA to reduce the interest rate from 1.25% to 1.00%. Moreover, at the accompanying press conference, the head of the regulator Philip Lowe noted that the Bank may take additional measures of stimulation if the economic situation continues to deteriorate. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. The focus is on a large block of statistics from Australia. The AiG Services PMI in June fell from 52.5 to 52.2 points. The number of issued construction permits in May grew by 0.7% MoM after a decrease of 3.4% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting zero dynamics. Exports in May rose sharply by 4.0% MoM, accelerating from 1.6% MoM in April. In contrast, imports slowed down from 2.3% MoM to 2.0% MoM, which led to a stronger increase in the trade surplus from 4.820 million to 5.745 million AUD. USD/JPY The US dollar resumed a steady decline against the yen amid the next increase in demand for safe assets. After reaching some truce in the US-China trade dispute, investor attention shifted to the aggravation of trade relations between the United States and Europe. Yesterday, the administration of Donald Trump has published an updated list of European goods, which may be imposed higher import duties. However, the market is not yet prone to negativity, since no ultimatums have been put forward. Statistics from Japan released today provided moderate support to the yen. In June, the Markit Services PMI rose from 51.7 to 51.9 points, which did not reach the forecast of 52.0 points. Oil Oil prices showed a steady decline on Tuesday, responding to the rising risks of a further slowdown in the global economy. In turn, moderate support for the quotes was provided by the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting, following which the cartel was able to agree to extend the current agreement on supplies restriction for another 9 months. The published API report on oil reserves has also contributed to price increases. For the week of June 28, oil reserves in the USA decreased by 5.00 million barrels after a decrease of 7.55 million over the previous period. On July 3, investors are awaiting the publication of a report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy. [/QUOTE]
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