How To take money in front of your nose instead of chasing it in a noise

Discussion in 'Forex Education' started by tobeone, Dec 15, 2015.

  1. tobeone

    tobeone Active Trader

    38
    2
    27
    Introduction
    In Tony Robbins' book MONEY - Master the Game where he interviews some of the most successful money managers in the world, point he's making is that you're often a victim of liars. Most of the mutual funds (96% to be exact) continuously fails to beat the market, therefore it's better for you to just purchase an index like S&P 500 or NASDAQ rather than put money in funds which charge you many different fees many of them being hidden inside fat contracts and incomprehensible terms in exchange for much poorer quality.

    How such a low success rate can be possible even among professionals and so called BIG GUYS? ...It's not even their money they're betting with so they don't care but what's for the rest of us?

    Is there any possibility for us to really make money in the long term on FOREX? Well, answer is easy: 96% fail rate also equals to 4% success rate and this clearly points out that there IS a possibility to continuously beat the market, I'm a part of this 4% and I'll tell you how I did it. Sounds fair? Let's go!





    First Thing First
    One thing you may want to know first is that you need to be crystal clear about what you're doing.. Everywhere! In the same above-mentioned book there's a strategy about how one should do business - a five step process from Tony's live seminar with Benioff:



    1. Ask What you really want to do (Vision)
    2. What is Important about it (Values)
    3. How Will I get It ( Methods)
    4. What is preventing me from having it (Obstacles)
    5. How will I know I am successful (Measurements)


    Why not have fun with in in our quest for holy grail?

    So we'll follow this concept here to find out an approach which will make us consistent money on Forex over and over again.

    I have a strategy already with live track record and everything, I know ins and outs of this strategy and I know why it loses and why it wins, I can adapt to changes in the market and I'm really crystal-clear about what it's all about from A to Z. You could copy the strategy but it's not the point, you can understand what it takes and have strategies of your own. You may think I'm exaggerating but I don't think so, this is what led me to success, you can't be sparse when there's so much noise around you. You should be set where you want to go and do everything for despite all the obstacles on your way.

    Vision
    Simple: We desire to create an approach for ourselves to make consistent money for ourselves and be crystal clear about it no matter how the market does: we know exactly why we trade or not trade, nothing that misleads us. We'll do it by asking real questions and answering real answers and getting to the point, at the end either we say there's no way to make money on Forex or we find out what it is - once and for all.

    Values
    Decide for yourself - why? Why this vision is important, why you need it.. what you love about it and need from it... Make it clearer.

    How will I get it
    Read this article.

    Obstacles
    What is preventing me is that people are buying and selling things for different reasons and from different parts of the world, everything's going the same time, there's no real pattern, some patterns may work for a period of time and then they become obsolete, we don't want such patterns, we need a lasting approach and it's not currently publicly available (or is it?), approach that will make money for us forever, other participants should pay us money, period. If they will not - there will be no Forex market anymore, because we'll dig deep and operate from there, not on the surface which only reflects what's going on.

    Let's Go
    It's good to know that the Forex market is a series of useless and needless noise caused by something, as there are no predictable patterns out there, making money is impossible by following these so called patterns, if it was possible there would be so much millionaires already who just download the robots for a few hundred bucks and make money whole their lives, why it doesn't happen in your opinion?

    There are a few strategies which will last some time but they will not always work. Only thing that works are fundamentals resulting in price changes, if a country is doing good it's doing good. If a country is doing bad it's doing bad - it's not only predictable but it has to be predictable and everyone can make money on it.

    If you have a buy position on a currency and something terrible and massive happens in that country you liquidate your position, there's a defined mathematical probability that you (and an average participant) will, let's say about 95% for a particular event. And if you fall in the remaining 5% and you don't liquidate, your position will be liquidated automatically against your will by stop loss or stop out and in minor cases, if you have enough margin, you'll be in a floating loss for some time because as mathematical probability says 95% of traders will sell or close buying positions on that same currency and the beauty and predictability of the market in such cases is that probability translates into sharpness of the move, you're profitable hundred percent of the time if you follow fundamentals the only question is how much you get.

    There's a sanction against a country, index falls for sure, the probability of a single trader / market participant going short on that instrument translates into the sharpness or strength of the overall move. That's all! The probability itself of the market going down is 100% percent! All other mathematical probabilities against (namely probability that an average trader / market participant will not sell) it just reduce the fall of the relevant instrument from 100% fall to something less.

    Why aren't you making money on it? Because you're misled by the noise, what the successful people do again? How they make their money? Timothy Sykes is famous for turning his 12K into 4 million dollars (4% guy!!!). How did he do it? He knew there were stock owners promoting stock in order to sell them at a higher price, as simple as that. When a penny stock was going up for "no reason" and there were well established promoter companies sending emails to their subscribers to buy these stocks, there was no place for guesswork anymore: crystal-clear thing happening: you can fine-tune your entry points more but stock will come down. He was crystal clear what he was doing, he was not focusing on guesswork to make money, how one can calculate what the price will do over and over again by what it did in the past? It's a nonsense for many reasons unless you apply a logic and find out HOW / WHY / BASED ON WHAT it can happen in some cases. I'm open for deeper insights but I see none yet.

    Only fundamental cause-effect relationship lasts forever and alter any technical strategy sooner or later. Don't you have tons of examples already?

    Let me ask you: did you ever see sanctions imposed on a country and its index rising in value? The billion dollar answer to this question is NO, it doesn't. It goes down. You know it, everyone knows it. And you can make tons of money on things like that because it's no guesswork, do you see? Money is in front of you and you fail to take it. How do people make millions and billions of dollars if this money is on the moon? It's not elsewhere, MONEY IS ALWAYS IN FRONT OF YOUR NOSE, TAKE IT AND MORE WILL COME.

    And let me tell you: When there's a major economic crisis in a country, when sanctions are imposed on it OR global commodity prices fueling its economy go down and you sell this economy you're against nobody, there's NO COMPETITION, you TAKE MONEY that's IN FRONT OF YOUR NOSE. Read this ten times.. You know.. Repetition is a master skill.

    You can see more people making money consistently on stocks (technical analysis) than on Forex because these are separate markets born and dead over and over again, life cycle is repeated from one stock to another over and over again, new IPOs are made every week. On Forex you have one big and a few well-established sub-markets, you can't find a few months old new market and trade it knowing how new markets behave, Forex has one type of behavior for a period of time, different type of behavior for another... And of course all the noise associated with it.

    I can write loads of pages but isn't it just useless? Money is not in pages! MONEY IS IN FRONT OF YOUR NOSE. Just take the necessary action and nothing more. Do you need more examples? War costs tons of money! Sun Tzu said: there's no state in the world that can benefit from continuous wars... Something like that. Country is involved in a major war for her / Sell it, get rid of it, SHORT IT! Make tons of money this is how the world works! Unless it wins that war super-fast and gets as much benefit as possible from the other country, it's economy is in a trouble. If two states are at war - one weak and one strong: the weaker nation's economy will be weakened even more...

    Wars, sanctions, crisis, civil-wars, major price-changes in relevant commodities, major oil exporters will be in trouble if oil prices go down, will be fine if they rise, major cocoa exporters will be in trouble if cocoa prices tank and so on.. You name it. You aren't comfortable trading and thinking this way?



    Conclusion
    We tend to mystify the market, some super-liquid super-big unheard of thing with enormous turnover... Blah Blah Blah. We make a God from it: Wrong!

    For some it's like astrology: calculating future based on how "stars" move. Wake up!

    You don't make money by practicing a "Forex religion" because you make money by practicing a reality and these two don't fit!
     
    JohnyIve likes this.
  2. tobeone

    tobeone Active Trader

    38
    2
    27
    By the way, the most important: third party verified live accounts (track record + trading privileges verified)
    https://www.myfxbook.com/members/georgiancapital/aaafx-newsgrabber-platinum-elite-1/1378344
    https://www.myfxbook.com/members/georgiancapital/newsgrabber-platinum-elite/1190992
    https://www.myfxbook.com/members/georgiancapital/imperial-scalper-icmarkets-live/1452835

    Am I walking the talk now?
    You may read tons of books in this industry which are near completely useless, tons of threads and posts and systems and stuff. Unless they have 100000000% verified every single aspect of their activity they are liars and they'll harm you!
     
  3. radex78

    radex78 Active Trader

    670
    14
    34
    Lerning the market behaviour I think is one way to minimize the risk, indeed no perfect analysis all the time although price movement only up and down, but in fact emotion trader also become one reason to losing here, the market always dyanmic and unpredicatble, test what suit to us strategy for long term or short term that preferable and seriously in leaning.
     
  4. myfxpt

    myfxpt Master Trader

    324
    44
    74
    Where is he today?
     
    hasibul likes this.
  5. Ary Barroso

    Ary Barroso Trader

    234
    4
    19

    1st link is not valid and 2nd and 3rd links were deleted by the creator! That’s the real story! Really unexpected!
     
    hasibul likes this.
  6. JohnyIve

    JohnyIve Trader

    63
    9
    14
    I guess he lives at bahamas and already forgot about this forum))
     
  7. Lesiro

    Lesiro Trader

    40
    2
    13
    Nice article. Nicely articulated. And then in the next post, you give out links of live accounts. And makes me realize it was all part of the barter. Still, thanks for the insight. Yes, you are right. People are driven by noise and do not look beneath that, to uncover the undercurrent which certainly gives a defining pattern. And yes, understanding, developing a taste for and sticking to fundamentals would be a better bet in the long run.
     
    hasibul likes this.

Share This Page