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HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 6th December 2021.

Market Update – December 6 – Stock futures rise, Oil bounces.



  • USD (USDIndex 96.36) up , as Treasuries benefited again from the flight to safety, and as some of the oversold conditions from rate hike worries were pared. Stocks struggled after a lower close on Wall Street Friday, USA100 down over -2.0%, USA500 -0.84% to 4555 & USA30 up to 34784.
  • Investors try to sort out the big risks from monetary policy, along with renewed uncertainties over covid and the Omicron variant hitting, and now with renewed restrictions, all the while pandemic supply/demand dislocations continue with varying impacts on growth and inflation. And the US mixed jobs report topped off. The earnings season has wound down, but worrisome guidance from some big tech firms.
  • Traders keep a close eye on this month’s round of central bank meetings.
  • Chinese Premier Li Keqiang signaled an easing of reserve requirements and China’s securities watchdog tried to play down fears over the withdrawal of Chinese companies from American exchanges.
  • US Yields 10-year rate is up 4.4 bp at 1.39%. UK 10-year rate lifted 4.4 bp to 1.39%, while bond markets across the Asia Pacific region were supported and the the 10-year JGB rate down -1. 2bp at 0.036%.
  • USOil – steadied below 200-DMA at $68.00 – recovered from $62.24 today -rose on positive sentiment after top exporter Saudi Arabia raised prices for its crude sold to Asia and the United States, and as indirect U.S.-Iran talks on reviving a nuclear deal appeared to hit an impasse.
  • Gold at $1780 area, as Treasury yields soft, unwinding some of the November selloff as it was seen as overdone, and as investors move back into haven trades as angst over an aggressive Fed policy posture abates and inflation concerns ease.
  • FX markets – EURUSD dropped back to 1.1279 and cable to 1.3225, USDJPY lifted to 113.11 & Cable steadied to 1.3328. Antipodeans bounced.
European Open -The March 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher, while US futures are in the red, although in cash markets, the US 10-year rate is up 4.4 bp at 1.39%. Asian stock markets also traded mixed and sentiment is likely to continue to continue to fluctuate. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.9% and 0.8% respectively and US futures are also posting broad gains, amid some hope that Omicron may turn out to be more infectious, but less deadly than previous strains.

Today – Today’s data calendar had German manufacturing orders which plunged -6.9% m/m in October, much more than anticipated. BoE’s Broadbent speech is also on tap.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.97%) Currently MAs flattened, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 and dipping, RSI steadied at 45, Stochastic declines. H1 ATR 0.138, Daily 0.91.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 7th December 2021.

Market Update – December 7 – Equities and currencies gain as Omicron worries wane.



  • USD (USDIndex 96.15) steady, as Treasuries rose sharply on the improvement in risk appetite on expectations for an acceleration in QE tapering to be announced at next week’s FOMC meeting, and as the market set up for this week’s $112 bln in coupon supply. Stock market sentiment strengthened further overnight and the GER30 and UK100 are posting gains of 0.6% and 0.2% respectively, while a 0.7% rise in the USA100 is leading US futures higher.
  • The RBA left policy settings unchanged, but sounded relatively optimistic on the virus front, which for some signalled that an early exit from QE is on the cards.
  • Growing confidence that Omicron won’t derail the global recovery, but that also means that central banks remain on course to rein in stimulus as new virus restrictions will likely add to inflation pressures.
  • Today’s released UK BRC retail sales were stronger than expected, but may be distorted by warnings that consumers should bring forward Christmas shopping in the light of supply chain disruptions, which could worsen over the winter.
  • US Yields 10-year rate lifted 1.7 bp to 1.45% overnight, JGB rates are up 1.7 bp at 0.051% as stock market sentiment continued to improve. Australia’s 10-year jumped 6.5 bp to 1.64%.
  • USOil – higher above 200-DMA at $70.60 concerns about the impact of the Omicron variant on global fuel demand eased, while Iran nuclear talks stalled, delaying the return of Iranian crude.
  • FX marketsEURUSD remains below the 1.13 mark, while Cable is still below 1.33 as the FOMC decision comes into view. USDJPY lifted to 113.72, but currently 113.58.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -50 ticks, underperforming versus Treasuries and leaving Bund yields to jump sharply in catch up trade, after Treasury yields continued to move higher through the Asian session.

Today – The calendar has Eurozone detailed GDP numbers for Q3, but the focus will be on German ZEW investor confidence. In the US session, we have US trade and productivity and Canadian Ivey PMI.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.41%) Currently MAs are aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 and dipping, RSI sloping to 26, Stochastic declines. H1 ATR 0.00226, Daily 0.01442.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 8th December 2021.

Market Update – December 8 – Stocks extend gains.



  • USD (USDIndex settled at 96.10) as risk appetite continued to improve, with global stock markets strengthening following Wall Street higher, with Topix and JPN225 posting gains of 0.6% and 1.4%. – The BOJ bought a total of 1.025 trillion yen ($9.03 billion) JGBs.
  • Reuters: Intel’s INTC.O announcement of plans to take its self-driving car unit Mobileye public in the United States next year pushed his shares to a 3% gain and cheered chip investors across the board.
  • Japan Q3 GDP revised lower with second report. Shoppers seemed to have already tightened their purse strings, leaving overall activity down -3.6% on a seasonally adjusted annualised basis. Business investment wasn’t quite as weak as feared, but the pressure on spending already evident in Q3 may foreshadow the impact Omicron will have on the overall outlook. Supply chain issues are weighing on exports and will continue to weigh on growth in Q4, which is generally expected to be even worse than the third quarter.
  • US Yields 10-year rate still dropped -1.0 bp to 1.46% overnight, and JGB rates and Australia yields also corrected, as speculation that central banks will move earlier than anticipated is pushing up short rates, while supporting the long end to some extent.
  • The bear flattening trade continues to weigh on Treasuries. The significant cheapening in rates since last month amid rising risks of Fed rate hikes made the maturity a little more palatable. The apparent strength in the economy is also adding to expectations the FOMC will not only announce an acceleration in QE tapering next week, but could also push up rate liftoff to the spring, and potentially hike rates three times in 2022.
  • USOil – steadied at $71.00 – Risks: assessment of full impact of the Omicron variant on economy; effectiveness of existing vaccines; US-Iran nuclear talks to resume later this week; US-Russia tension raised as Biden warns Putin of sanctions, Nord Stream 2 disruption if Russia invades.
  • FX marketsUS Dollar struggled, EUR and Sterling strengthened somewhat against a largely weaker Dollar, leaving EURUSD at 1.129 and Cable at 1.3240. USDJPY pullback to 113.30.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is fractionally lower, underperforming versus US futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -1.4 bp to 1.46%. 2-year yields have moved higher and curves flattened as improved growth optimism is boosting expectations of central bank action as inflation remains high. The Fed has sounded hawkish through the Omicron scare so far and while the doves at the BoE and ECB may want to err on the side of caution next week, the tide on monetary policy clearly is turning.

Today – The European data calendar is pretty quiet today, ahead of German trade data tomorrow and UK GDP numbers on Friday. Hence all eyes today are on BoC rate decision and statement. US Jolts are also on tap.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURGBP (+0.42%) Currently MAs are aligned higher as the asset recovered more than 50% of 3-day losses, MACD signal line & histogram are above 0 and RSI is retesting OB barrier, but Stochastic declines suggesting a possible correction. H1 ATR 0.00062, Daily 0.00448.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 9th December 2021.

Market Update – December 9 – Imminent inflation data puts the rate outlook back in focus!



  • USD down (USDIndex at 95.80) as Omicron worries ebbed further after reports that 3 jabs of the Pfizer vaccine are offering good protection against the variant, with global stock markets sustaining weekly gains but traded mixed, with USA30 and USA100 unchanged most of the session.
  • The BoE is increasingly seen to push back a planned rate hike into next year, which is adding to pressure on the Pound.
  • The JOLTS report showed a bounce in openings to another 11 mln level, but a decline in quits.
  • The Bank of Canada left policy on hold, as expected.
  • A business outlook indicator for Japan came in much stronger than anticipated, but Topix and JPN225 still dropped -0.6% and -0.5% respectively.
  • US debt limit drama averted as Senate leadership makes a deal (expected at $2 trl increase) – The Senate could take it up perhaps today, with the House voting on Friday, allowing possible enactment just before Christmas.
  • US Yields 10-year rate remains above the 1.5% mark though as confidence in the global recovery continues to strengthen, with most expecting the latest virus variant to provide only a temporary set-back for the world recovery and as ongoing Fed tightening worries continue to unwind safe haven trades since Thanksgiving.
  • China PPI inflation drops back from 26-year high. – creates room for further stimulus measures.
  • USOil – rose to $73.12.
  • Gold: at the $1780 area as there are limited gains on elevated Treasury yields and caution in the run-up to a key US inflation data and Federal Reserve policy meeting, which capped gains of the non-yielding asset.
  • FX marketsAUD and NZD were sought as local yields moved higher. Sterling stabilised, after selling off yesterday and Cable is currently at 1.3213. EURUSD corrected overnight, but is still firmly above the 1.13 mark at currently 1.1331. USDJPY at 113.50.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future has lifted 16 ticks to 173.65, outperforming versus Treasury futures, which are little changed, although in cash markets the US 10-year rate has also corrected from yesterday’s highs. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.1%, after being pressured by a jump in yields yesterday, as ECB officials signalled that Omicron won’t derail plans to phase out PEPP in time next year.

Today – In the US, Jobless claims are on tap. In Switzerland SECO will release its latest set of forecasts ahead of next week’s SNB decision.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (-0.36%) Currently MAs are aligned lower as the asset turned below PP. MACD signal line & histogram are slipping, RSI is at 41 and Stochastic declined to 12. H1 ATR 0.127, Daily 0.908.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 13th December 2021.

Market Update – December 13 – Omicron sentiment improves to start Big week.


Hot CPI data on Friday, all-time highs for stocks and a steady to stronger USD, greets a big week for central banks as markets enter the last three weeks of the year.


    • USD (USDIndex 96.22) rises from dips below 96.00 on Friday. Omicron news improves, case peaks appear to have been hit in Gauteng, South Africa, hospitalizations have stabilized and projected death rates appear to be 25 times lower than Delta, mixing Pfizer, AZ & Moderna vaccines appear to give better immunity and Anti-viral drugs from Merck & GSK new data improving. US deaths top 800k, is now present in 30 states and first Omicron case traced to November 15. Stocks hit new all-time highs Friday USA500 +0.95% (+44pts) 4712, Futures now at 4722
    • US Yields 10-year rates fell to 1.48%, down about 5 basis points from last week’s peak, and trades at 1.49% now.
    • Asian Markets – Asian indices are broadly higher, despite a slightly weaker than hoped Tankan survey for Japan and more omicron warnings, which were counterbalanced by signs that China will take further steps to boost the economy. Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.1% and 0.7% respectively, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are posting gains of 0.5% and 0.7%. Shanghai and Shenzen Comp have lifted 0.4% and 0.6% so far and the ASX closed 0.4% higher.
    • USOil – continues to recover and holds over $70.00 for a 5th consecutive day and trades at $72.25.
    • Gold – dipped to test key $1770 on Friday, recovering to $1785 now
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -16 ticks, U.S. futures are outperforming slightly, but are also in the red. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently posting gains of 0.4% and 0.3% respectively and U.S. futures are also posting gains of around 0.3%. In FX markets both Euro and Sterling struggled against a largely stronger dollar, leaving EURUSD at 1.1285 and Cable at 1.3227 and USDJPY at 113.50. The UK upped its warnings on the omicron variant over the weekend and is targetting all adults to have received a booster by year-end, a month ahead of current schedule. In the short run at least, the risks to growth forecasts are to the downside, which will also overshadow central bank decisions this week.

BoE, ECB, SNB and Norges Bank are all set to announce policy on Thursday – hot on the heels of the FOMC decision on Wednesday. For the BoE it will likely mean that the flagged rate hike will be pushed out into next year, and possibly 2023 although inflation and labour market data ahead of the announcement could throw a spanner in the works.

Today – OPEC Oil Market Report, BoE Financial Stability Report, Speech from BOE’s Bailey.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPUSD (-0.31%) Recovered from sub-1.3200 Friday to 1.3265 highs, down on open and 1.325 now. Currently MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram moving lower, RSI 46.00 & weakening. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily 0.0081.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 14th December 2021.

Market Update – Omicron Sentiment slips – Fed in Focus.



  • USD (USDIndex 96.35) holds Monday’s gains (95.40), Stocks closed lower (Nasdaq worst performer -1.39%) & Yields drop (10yr 1.422%). Major FX pairs sideways into FED. Omicron news weighed, first death in UK, WHO – this variant “very high risk” but data on severity limited, & another study shows 2-dose vaccines don’t lower antibodies.
  • US Yields 10yr traded down to 1.416% up to 1.4216 now.
  • EquitiesUSA500 -43.00 (-0.91%) at 4668USA500.F trades higher at 4878.
  • USOil – lost over $2.00 under $70.50 – now recovered $71.00 & trades at 71.20.
  • Gold spiked to $1790, sank to $1782, now struggles at $1788.
  • FX marketsEURUSD 1.1270, USDJPY 113.70, Cable back down to 1.3200 from 1.3275 yesterday.
OvernightJPY Industrial production, much better than expected, AUD business confidence better than expected, GBP data dump also better than expected (Earnings 4.9% vs 4.6% & 5.9% last time, Claims down nearly 50k vs 15K last time & expectations of -31k & Unemployment unchanged at 4.2%).

European Open – March 10yr Bund future down -0.6 bp at 174.62, slightly underperforming vs Treasury futures. Yields remain at low levels though as markets keep a wary eye on omicron developments while waiting for this week’s round of CB meetings. FOMC kicks off its 2-day session today, with an announcement due tomorrow. DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.1% & 0.3% respectively. Sentiment stabilising after virus restrictions.

Central banks will have a difficult task trying to balance inflation concerns & virus nerves though the FOMC it seems remains on course to speed up tapering. ECB still looks dovish by comparison, even if it is set to confirm the timely end of PEPP on Thursday, which is keeping a lid on EUR. BOE is also expected to push back the flagged rate hike into 2022 as virus restrictions are tightening & Cable has dropped to test 1.3200. This morning’s jobs news adds to BOE Hawks.

Today – IEA OMR, EZ Industrial Production, US PPI.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCAD (-0.23%) slip after 5-day rally from under 0.9000 to 0.9135.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 16th December 2021.

Market Update – 16/12/21 – FOMC – Taper Ends March, 3 x 25bps Rate Hikes 2022.



“The economy no longer needs increasing amounts of policy support” – Powell

Inflation “uncomfortably high” – has exceeded 2% target “for some time”

Jobs – “we are making rapid progress toward maximum employment”

Looking at a soft landing for economy, as Virus fades, Inflation dissipates on its own (2.6% 2022 – 2.1% 2024?) & Full employment (Unemployment @3.5%) runs through next 3 years.

  • USD (USDIndex 96.21) rallied to 96.85 on FED weakened thereafter. Stocks rallied (Nasdaq best performer +2.15%) & Yields rallied. Omicron news mixed again with large rise in cases in UK, SA – Pfizer booster not as effective as elsewhere.
  • US Yields 10yr traded up to 1.461% & holds gains.
  • EquitiesUSA500 +75 (+1.63%) breaching key 4700 at 4709USA500.F trades up at 4727 knocking on the door of ATHs.
  • USOil – rallied from under $70.00 to $71.41 on FED & Inventories.
  • Gold held in check by higher yields & USD then reversed – sank to $1753 (46 day low) before bouncing to $1785.
  • FX marketsEURUSD 1.1310 from 1.1225, USDJPY 114.10 from 114.25, Cable 1.3263 from 1.3170.
European Open – March 10-yr Bund future slightly higher, as is the Treasury future, Stock markets have taken hawkish Fed pivot in their stride and DAX and FTSE 100 are up 1.5% and 1.1% respectively ahead of European central bank meetings today. Investors welcomed the clarity on the Fed path and will also have seen the move as a sign of confidence in the recovery. In Europe, ECB is set to confirm the end of PEPP, SNB is expected to keep policy settings unchanged, BoE and Norges Bank will discuss a rate hike in the shadow of Omicron. On balance it seems more likely that Norges Bank will go ahead with the planned hike, while BoE will sit out another meeting as the country debates a circuit breaker lockdown amid 78K virus cases (highest ever) yesterday and signs it’s spreading 4x faster than Delta, fears of hospitals being overrun with cases although milder and companies suffering with many workers off sick.

Today – SNB, Norges, CBRT, BoE, ECB, Flash PMIs, US Weekly Claims – & bi-election in UK a further test of Johnson’s authority.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.36%) rallied from below 150.00 on Tuesday to 151.70. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 72.30 OB & still rising. H1 ATR 0.225, Daily 1.20.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 20th December 2021.

Market Update – December 20 – Risk-Off greets the start of Week 51.


daily-market-update.png

  • USD (USDIndex 96.60) rallied on Friday from 95.80 lows and holds gains to start the week. Stocks sank again on Friday and are lower today, Yields also fell and remain down. Oil tanked -2.79% Friday to 2-week lows, GOLD rallied and cooled but holds $1800. Risk off starts the new week with JPY in demand. Catalyst – OMICRON – lockdowns and further restrictions in Europe, health systems stretched. Other market news – China cuts borrowing costs, Biden’s $1.75tn build back better bill will be blocked by Manchin. Chile (worlds biggest Copper producer) elects young left-wing President (Boric).
  • US Yields 10yr traded down significantly to 1.402% on Friday, now down again 1.36%
  • EquitiesUSA500 -48 (-1.03%) at 4668 (was down over 68pt) Dow lost over 500pts– USA500.F trades down again at 4568.
  • USOil – slumped over -2.79% to close at $70.14 and is down another $2.50 again today to $67.50
  • Gold – Another volatile day on Friday, touched 1815 but closed at 1798. Holds over $1800 currently.
  • FX marketsEURUSD 1.1250 from 1.1235, USDJPY 113.40 from 113.70 close on Friday, Cable closed at 1.3234 down again today to test 1.3200, after more political turmoil, as Brexit Minister Lord Frost resigns and more photos of Tory staff (including Jonson) breaking lockdown rules.
Overnight – ECB’s de Cos: Rate hikes are unlikely in 2022, NZD Trade balance improves significantly and consumer sentiment surprisingly holds up.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 36 ticks, the 30-year has rallied 90 ticks, alongside broad gains in US futures, amid concern that Biden’s spending package won’t get sufficient support to go ahead after all. US growth forecasts are already being revised down in some quarters and without the prospect of considerable fiscal support, it will remain up to the central bank to keep the economy afloat, which will likely mean a less aggressive tapering schedule from the Fed. Stock markets tanked across Asia on the news and DAX and FTSE 100 are down -2.2% and -1.7% respectively. Virus developments are adding to the risk off backdrop, with parts of Europe already back in lockdown and others once again contemplating wide spread closures over the holiday period as booster programs are not fast enough to deal with the Omicron variant.

Today U.S. leading indicators



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.74%) Down from 82.40 on Thursday to 80.25 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram moving lower & under 0 line since early Friday, RSI 26, OS but still falling. H1 ATR 0.17 Daily ATR 0.97.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 22nd December 2021.

Market Update – December 22 – Stocks recover poise.



“COVID remains a threat to the global economy. Initial evidence suggests the Omicron variant is more transmissible but results in less severe illness compared to previous variants,” – CBA

  • USD (USDIndex 96.50) held onto gains as US stocks recovered all of Monday’s losses, as Yields also rose; USOil rose 3.7% breaking back over $70.00 and Gold once again pivots at $1788. Risk back on, & a weaker JPY & CHF. Asian markets also higher again. Huge spike in European wholesale power prices – OMICRON signs of market boredom? – Biden orders 500 million free at-home tests, UK & US cut contact isolation times from 7- to 5-days, Israel offers a 4th dose of the COVID-19 vaccination to people over 60.
  • Turkish Lira holds on to gains for now USDTRY at 12.60.
  • US Yields 10yr traded up to 1.487% and trades at 1.46% now
  • EquitiesUSA500 +81 (+1.78%) at 4649 Dow +1.6%, Nasdaq +2.4% – USA500.F trades up at 4634. Nike +6.15% & Micron +10.54% after earnings beat. Other movers; TSLA +4.29% & CITRIX +13.63% as takeover target. PFE -3.39% & MRNA -2.98%
  • USOil – rallied 3.7% peaking at $71.45, as sentiment lifts, low inventories and increasing demand.
  • Gold – once again rejected $1800 and pivots around the key 1788 level .
  • FX marketsEURUSD 1.1264, USDJPY rallies to 114.15, Cable recovers form 1.3200 to 1.3255 now
OvernightBOJ Minutes: “See need to keep monetary easing despite costs” (no surprise). UK Q3 GDP unexpectedly revised down to 1.1% q/q from 1.3% q/q reported initially. Business investment -2.5% vs. 0.4% and Current account deficit leapt to -£24.4b vs. -£15.8 expected and -£8.6b in previous quarter.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 16 ticks at 173.47, matching moves in Treasury futures. The long end outperformed and 30-year futures have been rallying overnight, as the risk on rally in stocks started to run out of steam overnight. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are still posting gains of 0.45 and 0.3% respectively, but US futures are fractionally lower, as virus developments and the outlook for US fiscal stimulus remains in focus. In Europe most governments seems to be shying away from imposing stricter lockdown measures this side of the Christmas holidays, but that may mean more stringent measures are needed thereafter.

Today US GDP, Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCHF (+0.31%) Bounced from from test of 1.2150 lows Monday & Tuesday to 1.2270 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher but stalling over 0 line since mid-Tuesday, RSI 68 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0012 Daily ATR 0.0087.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 27th December 2021.

Market Update – December 27.



Stock markets were narrowly mixed across Asia in cautious trade, with Australia and Hong Kong among the markets still closed for the extended holiday weekend. In Europe, the UK is still on holiday and in North-America Canada will remain shut today.

  • USD (USDIndex 96.20) steady within 96-96-25 area. US stocks sustain gains in contrast to Asia stocks which corrected lower despite further promises of support for the economy from officials in Beijing. Yields also rose; USOil & Gold under refresh pressure.
  • Japan retail sales came in stronger than anticipated – the government last week announced more stimulus measures that also include a direct handout to families, which is boosting the chances of a consumption led recovery, although Omicron could still derail that scenario.
  • US Yields 10yr has corrected -1.7 bp to 1.48%, as US Treasuries have found buyers.
  • EquitiesUSA500 settled at 4730 (0.5% above key 4700), NASDAQ at 16344, USA30 at 35950, GER30 future is down -0.3%, Nikkei corrected -0.37%.
  • USOil – reversed from $73.58, to 72.34, after airlines called off thousands of flights over the Christmas holidays amid surging COVID-19 cases, though Brent crude gained support from hopes that the Omicron variant will have limited impact on global demand. The contract did not trade on Friday because of the US market holiday.
  • Gold – steady above $1,805 as weaker US yields counter firmer Dollar.
  • FX markets – Yen struggled, and USDJPY lifted to 114.68, EURUSD 1.1317, Cable trades at 1.3400.
Today – The data calendar is also pretty empty on both sides of the Atlantic, which will leave investors mulling virus developments and central bank outlooks, with early trading suggesting a cautious backdrop and limited moves.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.60%) Breached 1.5692, breaking the 20- and 50-hours SMA, which have been bullishly. MACD signal line & histogram turn positive. RSI 61.73 and rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 29th December 2021.

Market Update – December 29 – Another bout of risk appetite.



  • The Global stock market rally ran out of steam, with Asian markets trading mixed, in combination with year end malaise taking its toll. There was little to no inspiration to drive yields one way or another, leaving rates little changed on the day, but with a curve flattener intact. The USD (USDIndex 96.37) was supported.
  • US Yields 10yr has corrected -0.7 bp to 1.47%, as the rally on stocks ran out of steam during Asian hours.
  • Tech stocks drove the decline in Hong Kong as markets eye Beijing’s tightening oversight, while China’s property slowdown remains a concern. Bloomberg highlighted that a key gauge of interbank funding costs fell to the lowest level since January, after the central bank added more cash to the financial system – to ease an expected surge in seasonal demand for liquidity.
  • EquitiesNikkei down -0.6%, Hang Seng has lost -1.0% as the lockdown in Xian city to curb the spread of COVID-19 continued for the seventh day. The USA100 surged 1.39% while the USA30 rallied 0.98%, just shy of their historic peaks from November. GER30 future is down -0.2% and the UK100 is up 0.6% in catch up trade.
  • USOil – at 75.96 as it remains supported and is trading close to a 1-month high after a Bloomberg story saying the American Petroleum Institute reported crude holdings fell by 3.1 million barrels last week. Official data are due later today, but the report is already underpinning prices.
  • Gold – down to $1,801.
  • FX markets – USD was supported with USDJPY stuck below the psychological 115.00 level at 114.89, EURUSD dipped under1.1300, Cable dropped back to 1.3414.
  • Turkish Lira was down around 2% at 12 per US Dollar on the day, bringing losses so far this week to 12%. The beleaguered currency had rebounded more than 50% from record lows around 18 last week, after the country announced some support measures.
Today – The calendar remains light with just the November advance goods trade, wholesale and retail inventory reports, pending home sales, and weekly MBA mortgage numbers and oil inventories.



Biggest FX Mover @ (10:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.24%) has dipped under the 1.13, turning below S1, with fast MAs pointing downwards, RSI flirting with the OS barrier and MACD signal line & histogram negatively configured.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 3rd January 2022.

Market Update – January 3 – Front foot for the new year.



Welcome to 2022, Evergrande back in the headlines, having defaulted , shares have been suspended, (they fell 90% in 2021) awaiting “inside information”. TESLA beat delivery targets & more woes for the TRY as Inflation hits 19-year highs.

The 2021 close – S&P500 (+27%) , USDIndex +6.3%, 10-yr yields broke 1.5%, Oil & Gas (50% & 48% respectively, Coffee was the best performing commodity +70%, Gold lost –4%). European Banks gained +34%, US Treasuries lost -3% and the Chinese Tech & Property sector collapsed. Inflation (US 6.8% EZ 4.9%, UK 5.1% & Japan 0.1%), Energy & Food costs rallied. Crypto’s volatile & surged (BTC +60%), Meme Stocks monstrously volatile (GameStop +700% – as high as +2,500%) & AMC +1200% (up 3200% at one point). NFT’s arrived (Market Cap 2021 – $22Billion+ vs just $100 million in 2020)

  • USD (USDIndex 95.90) recovered from 2021 close at 95.50 zone. US stocks dipped into year end, & Yields also slipped. USOil & Gold both held on to healthy gains.
  • US Yields 10 yr traded to 1.51%
  • EquitiesUSA500 -12.55 (-0.26%) at 4766 NASDAQ -0.61%,
  • USOil – slipped from $76.00 but held onto $75.00 ahead of OPEC+ meeting tomorrow.
  • Gold – spiked to $1831 on the weaker USD, and holds at 1825
  • Bitcoin down to 47k
  • FX marketsEURUSD 1.1340, USDJPY holds over 115.00 & Cable holds over 1.3500.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -11 ticks, US futures are underperforming, while stock futures are higher in Europe and the US. Large parts of Asia were still on holiday today and in Europe, the U.K. remains shut for the extended New Year holiday. The calendar focuses on final manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone, which are not expected to bring major revisions and confirm that virus developments have slowed the pace of expansion.

Today – Final Manu PMI’s from EZ – UK, US & Canada remained closed for New-Year



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.43%) Correcting Friday’s rally to 1.1385, trades down to 1.1336 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram lower but above 0 line. RSI 47 and falling, H1 ATR 0.00144 Daily ATR 0.0065.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 5th January 2022.

Market Update – January 5 – Yields higher again, FED minutes in focus.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Treasuries continued under pressure as yields moved up supporting USD, Equities were mixed; Financials and Automaker’s (EV) rallied, US data (Jolts, & ISM Manu PMI’s) missed expectations, OPEC+ delivered production increase for February. Goldmans talked of $100k Bitcoin. US reported 1 million daily COVID cases, Israel says 4th dose effective at increasing antibodies, France discovers new variant with 46 mutations.

  • USD (USDIndex 96.30) holds gains supported by higher yields – pressuring the YEN in particular. US stocks (Dow & S&P) hit new all-time highs but Nasdaq lost -1.33%.
  • US Yields 10 yr rocked up to close at 1.668% trades at 1.64% now.
  • EquitiesUSA500 -3 (+0.06%) at 4793 Ford (new 20-yr high) +11.67%, GM +7.47% TSLA -4.18%, USA500 FUTS now 4780.
  • USOil – spiked over $77.00 trades at $76.75 now post OPEC+ big drawdown in private inventories –
  • Gold – holds over $1800 significantly at 1813 now.
  • Bitcoin holds over 45,000, trades at 46,400 now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD recovered back to 1.1300, USDJPY new-5-yr high at 116.30 now 116.00, Cable back over 1.3500 at 1.3530.
Overnight – Tech stock in particular were under pressure in Asia from stronger USD & higher US yields.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 6 ticks, Treasury futures are outperforming, as stock markets started to correct from recent highs. Travel and tourism shares boosted indexes yesterday, but market sentiment started to turn overnight and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.2%.

Today – EZ & US Composite/Services PMI (Final), US ADP, FOMC minutes



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.33%) Sank to 1.6540 earlier and has rallied to 1.6620, yesterday’s high breached 1.6660. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher, but below 0 line. RSI 57.80 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0020 Daily ATR 0.0120.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 6th January 2022.

Market Update – January 6 – Hawkish Fed – Rate hikes on the way.



‘A “very tight” job market and unabated inflation might require the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than expected and begin reducing its overall asset holdings as a second brake on the economy, US central bank policymakers said in their meeting last month.’ – Reuters

Stocks tanked, Yields spiked and the USD held firm as EM & commodity currencies sank.

  • USD (USDIndex 96.30) holds gains supported by higher yields – pressuring the commodity complex in particular. US stocks tanked (Dow & S&P) down -1% & -1.94% respectively with NASDAQ losing 522 points -3.34%
  • US Yields 10-yr rocked up to close at 1.70% trades higher again at 1.73% now.
  • EquitiesUSA500 -96 (-1.94%) at 4700 TSLA -5.35%, AT&T +2.22%. As value stocks gained and growth stocks were hit the hardest, USA500 FUTS now 4691.
  • USOil – spiked over $78.00 trades at $76.84 inventory drawdown not as big as expected and a big build in gasoline storage
  • Gold – down to $1800 sagain after test & rejection of 1830.
  • Bitcoin sinks under holds over 45,000, trades at 43,200 now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD back to 1.1285, USDJPY off 5-yr highs under 116.00 at 155.90, Cable tested 1.3600 aback to test 1.3500 now.
Overnight – Chinese Services PMI’s & German Factory Orders both better than expected. Asian share followed US lower –

European OpenRisk-Off – The March 10-year Bund future is down -38 ticks, underperforming versus Treasury futures. Overnight and mounting concern of an accelerating tightening schedule in the US has been adding to pressure on stock markets overnight. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently posting losses of -1.5% and -1.4% respectively and US futures are down -0.3-0.6% with the NASDAQ future underperforming as tech stocks continue to struggle.

Today – Preliminary German inflation data for December, Eurozone PPI, final UK Services PMI, US Weekly Claims, ISM Services PMI and US Factory Orders.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-1.10%) RISK OFF Fed inspired tank to Sank to 82.90 from 84.34 yesterday. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram lower & well below 0 line. RSI 16.06 and significantly OB, H1 ATR 0.1820 Daily ATR 0.8000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 7th January 2022.

Market Update – January 7 – Yields dominate sentiment.



Risk aversion recedes – Stocks stabilize but it’s all about the Yields & sharp rise in short-term 2-yr in particular. USD softer again, Oil rallies, Gold & BTC sink again. Key FED hawk Bullard, talked of actual rate hikes as early as March & that inflation will remain over 3% for all of 2022. Claims missed a tad at 207k vs 200k but remain in strong downtrend, but Services PMI’s missed significantly (62 vs. 67 & 69.1 prior). Another Chinese real estate developer (Shimao) missed bond payments.

  • USD (USDIndex 96.20) slips but holds gains supported by higher yields – pressuring the commodity complex in particular.
  • US Yields 10-yr rocked up AGAIN to close at 1.733% trades at 1.72% now.
  • EquitiesUSA500 -4.53 (-0.10%) at 4696 as value & cyclical stocks gained and growth stocks pressured. USA500 FUTS now 4700.
  • USOil – has spiked over $79.00 trades at $79.75 – 3 key drivers (i) further unrest in Kazakhstan (Govt removed cap on fuel & heating oils on Jan 1 – prices have rocketed & Russia have sent troops! (ii) Supply cuts in Libya & shutdowns in Canada (iii) Tight inventories.
  • Gold – down under $1800 again to test support at $1788.
  • Bitcoin sinks to test next support at 42,000 now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD back to 1.1300, USDJPY under 116.00 at 115.85, Cable back to 1.3545 from 1.3500.
Overnight – JPY data – weaker, German Industrial Production missed

European Open
– The March 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher as are US Treasury futures. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 0.04% and 0.16% respectively. Markets are waiting for key US payroll numbers in the afternoon, which will be an important piece of the puzzle for the increasingly hawkish Fed. In Europe the calendar is also pretty busy with trade and production numbers for Germany, consumer spending data for France and preliminary inflation numbers and the latest ESI economic sentiment reading for the Eurozone. Overall the data is likely to support the hawkish camp at the ECB and after Lagarde committed to keep net asset purchases going for most of this year, it will likely become clear that the ECB is falling behind the curve, as Omicron is unlikely to derail the global recovery.

Today – UK Construction PMI, EZ CPI (Flash), Economic Sentiment, US & Canadian Labour Market Reports, Fed’s Barkin, Bostic & Daly.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.18%) Rallied from 1.8640 lows on Wednesday to 1.8940 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram lower but well above 0 line. RSI 73 OB but still rising, H1 ATR 0.00198 Daily ATR 0.01000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 10th January 2022.

Market Update – January 10 – Cautiousness ahead of US CPI.



Inflation worries and the Fed’s hawkishness prompted buying in shares like banks that usually perform well in a high interest rate environment, while high-growth stocks were routed. Share markets made cautious gains so far today as US jobs report giving the greenlight to investors to counted down to another US inflation reading that could well set the seal on an early rate hike from the Federal Reserve, lifting bond yields yet further. Going from uber-accommodation in November liftoff as soon as March, multiple rate hikes in 2022, and subsequent balance sheet shrinkage in a matter of two months spiked Treasury yields. Volatility in stocks jumped as investors repriced for the new conditions.

The explosion in coronavirus cases globally also threatens to crimp consumer spending and growth just as the Fed is considering turning off the liquidity spigots, tough timing for markets addicted to endless cheap money. – Reuters

  • USD (USDIndex 96.20) slips but holds gains supported by higher yields – 95.88 currently.
  • US Yields 10-yr is coming off of its worst week in years thanks to the FOMC’s pivot to the hawkish side, and as government and corporate supply picks up. Key technical levels were also broken to exacerbate the selloff. It will be hard pressed to rally unless there are signs Omicron will take more of a toll on growth than currently anticipated, suggesting the FOMC will not need to boost rates as aggressively as feared.
  • Equities – US equities closing in the red. USA100 had struggled at the end of last week, but frayed nerves have started to calm – for now – USA100 at 15664. USA500 at 50DMA below 4700. Tech stocks in Hong Kong rebounded, which saw the Hang Seng lifting 0.8%. Stock markets across Asia traded mixed, in quiet trade, with Japan on holiday today.
  • USOil – held firm,sustaining last week’s gains at 78.70
  • Gold – at $1794.
  • FX marketsEURUSD corrected to 1.1341 amid broader pressure on the Euro, USDJPY rebounded to 115.75, Cable steady at 2-month high at 1.3590.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -13 ticks, US futures are posting similar losses, as yields continue to rise against the background of rising inflation and easing virus concerns. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.2%, as stock market sentiment improved at the start of the week.

Today – Central bank outlooks and virus developments will remain the focus of attention this week, with investors likely to keep a close eye on upcoming Fedspeak. For today though the calendar is pretty light on both sides of the Atlantic with only Eurozone unemployment and US Wholesale inventories are scheduled.



Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) CADCHF (+0.33%) Rallied to 0.7289 extending to Decmber’s highs. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram well above 0 line. RSI 75 OB but still rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 13th January 2022.

Market Update – January 13.



Trading was lackluster on Wednesday and consolidative mid-week as the markets equilibrate to the new reality with the FOMC on the move to normalize. Sentiment has turned cautious again and Asian equity markets are narrowly mixed at the moment, with indices struggling to add to yesterday’s gain. Chinese tech stocks retreated after jumping yesterday and troubles at China’s property firms have come back in focus ahead of a wave of key payments.

  • USD (USDIndex 94.80) – dips breaking the 2-months range – inflation ( the biggest jump since June 1982) didnt surprise and kept intact expectations for the Fed’s tapering or timeline for the first rate rise as early as March.
  • US Yields 10-yr at 1.74%.
  • Chinese property developer Sunac China Holdings Ltd plans to raise HK$4.52 billion ($580.09 million) from a share sale for repayment of loans and general corporate purposes
  • Real estate developers extend declines in afternoon trading amid a Bloomberg report that several of the nation’s biggest banks have become more selective about funding real estate projects by local government financing vehicles.
    Equities -Topix and JPN225 meanwhile are down -0.7% and -1% respectively. The ASX managed to move up 0.5%, but Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -0.07% and -1.4% respectively
  • USOil – slips at 81.58 from 82.40 highs, after EIA inventory data showed fuel demand has taken a hit from Omicron.
  • Gold -steady above $1820, as the US dollar and Treasury yields retreated after inflation data reinforced the need for quicker interest rate hikes.
  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson apologised for attending a party in the Downing Street garden during a coronavirus lockdown.
  • FX marketsEURUSD at 1.1449, USDJPY steady at 115.30, Cable at 1.3711,the pound generally supported amid signs that PM Johnson managed to survive yet another scandal.
European Open: The March 10-year Bund future is down -8 ticks, US futures are also lower. In cash markets the 10-year Treasury has pared earlier gains and is unchanged on the day at 1.74% at the moment. Stocks mostly corrected in Asia, with the rally in tech stocks running out of steam after a cautious close higher on Wall Street yesterday. Central bank moves and virus developments remain in focus and while GER30 and UK100 futures are posting fractional gains, U.S. futures are broadly lower.

Today – The data calendar today bring December PPI and weekly jobless claims. There are some ECB speakers scheduled.



Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.44%) extends above R1, to 0.6880 high. Fast MAs alighed higher, with MACD rising, RSI at 74 and stochastics sloping northwards.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 14th January 2022.

Market Update – January 14 – USD longs trimmed positions.



The market has well priced in elevated inflation and an all but assured March rate liftoff, hence taking in stride a record clip in core PPI at 8.3% y/y and the drop in continuing jobless claims to 1,559k, the lowest since before the pandemic. Markets trimmed long positions and deemed, for now, that several US rate hikes this year are fully priced in.

  • USD (USDIndex 94.73) – found a floor above 94.50.
  • US Yields 10-yr has lifted 2.0 bp to 1.72% overnight, as hawkish Fedspeak continued to fuel tightening speculation. – Fed Brainard acknowledged that she too could vote for a March rate hike.
  • The Bank of Korea added to the hawkish tone by hiking the key rate to 1.25% from 1.00% and signalling that more moves could be on the way. Bank of Japan is deliberating how it can start telegraphing an eventual rate hike. – Yen on bid.
  • China’s trade data showed a marked slowdown in both export and import growth.
  • Equities – tightening speculation has put pressure on stocks. GER30 and UK100 are down -0.4%. USA100 dropped -2.5%, JPN225 corrected -1.3%.
  • UK economy stronger than expected before Omicron. Monthly GDP data for November were a positive surprise, with a rise of 0.9% m/m that compensated somewhat for the disappointing October reading.
  • USOil – at 81.68 after 80.75 bottom, amid concerns on Chinese fuel demand & whether US government will act to cool oil prices.
  • Gold & Silver – best weekly rise since November – remains however below the key $1835 barrier.
  • FX marketsEURUSD at 1.1482, USDJPY down at 113.63, Cable at 1.3725.
European Open: The March 10-year Bund future is down -6 ticks, broadly in line with moves in Treasury futures, while both the Schatz and the 30-year futures outperformed. The UK already signalled that virus measures will be relaxed further in coming weeks, which will add to the arguments of the hawkish camp at the BoE.

Today –Headlining is the ECB Lagarde speech and US December retail sales report.





Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.40%) breaks below 20-day SMA at 82.60 (50-DMA). Fast MAs aligned lower, with MACD lines negatively configured, RSI at 36 but stochastics pointing higher suggesting correction.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,174
2
74
Date : 17th January 2022.

Market Update – January 17 – USD Holds onto gains.



Big bank Earnings disappointed on Friday, the USD recovered from 8-week lows and Fedspeakers continued to worry about inflation as hawkish tones increased. Stocks recovered early losses, Yields moved up to close the week as Oil moved up and Gold moved down. China’s PBOC delivered the first rate cut in a while as signs of slow down persist and Covid cases once again spread.

  • USD (USDIndex 95.20) holds on to gains from Friday. Bouncing from 8-week lows under 94.60.
  • US Yields 10-yr moved higher again to close at 1.772%.
  • EquitiesUSA500 +3.82 (+0.08%) at 4662 as Financials weighed following Earnings from JPM (-6.15%) Blackrock (-2.19%) and WFC (+3.68) Tech & Energies lead recovery into long weekend. USA500 FUTS lower at 4652.
  • USOil – Spiked over $84.00 as markets look beyond Covid spikes with very tight supply.
  • Gold – settled at $1816 from a test of 1830 again. Now at $1822.
  • Bitcoin support once again at $42,000, Friday, back to 42,800 now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD back to 1.1465, USDJPY now 114.40 at 115.85, Cable back to 1.33680.
Overnight – Chinese GDP and industrial production exceeded expectations, whilst retail sales disappointed. UK house price data from the Nationwide was strong. The Chairman of Credit Suisse has resigned due to Covid breaches.

Week Ahead A Bank of Japan meeting which concludes on Tuesday, UK inflation data on Wednesday and Australian jobs figures on Thursday. Earnings from GS, BAC, MS, P&G, Netflix

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -36 ticks, alongside broad losses in US futures, which points to a further rise in yields across Europe. Stock market futures are trading mixed, with DAX and FTSE 100 futures posting gains of 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, while an 0.4% decline in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower. Central bank outlooks and inflation expectations remain in focus, the Fed is gearing up for a round of central bank hikes this year that will also impact the outlook for BoE and ECB amid hopes that the pandemic phase of Covid-19 will start to fade.

Today – Little data from Europe & All US markets closed for MLK Day.





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.34%) Rallied from 90.50 lows on Friday to 91.37 (Fridays high) now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & above 0 line. RSI 64 & rising, H1 ATR 0.121 Daily ATR 0.794.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.