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HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.
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[QUOTE="HFM, post: 217667, member: 32345"] [B]Date : 15th February 2023. Market Update – February 15 – CPI Data Done – Retail Sales Next.[/B] [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/daily-market-update.png'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/daily-market-update-696x364.png[/IMG][/URL] [B]US CPI DATA provided a real mixed bag. [/B]Monthly data higher & annual data lower to [B]6.4%[/B] from 6.5% but missed expectations of 6.2%. A volatile session – [B]USD [/B]finishing higher and[B] Stocks [/B](-0.46% to +0.57%) were mixed. The [B]2yr[/B] yield curve rose further and the [B]inversion[/B] between that and the [B]10yr [/B]curve widened to[B] -83bp[/B]. The Fed Funds Futures is now pushing the terminal rate over the 5.25% level[B]. [/B] Overnight [B]RBA’s[/B] [B]LOWE [/B]issued a gloomy outlook & “unsure how high rates can go” – [B]AUD[/B] tanked, [B]Kishida[/B] said [B]Ueda[/B] was the “best” candidate and unsure on policy change. Asian markets biased lower. [B]GBP[/B] – [B]CPI [/B]cools ([B]10.1%[/B] vs. 10.3% & 10.5%) [B]RPI[/B] holds at 13.4%. [LIST] [*][B]FX[/B] – [B]USD Index [/B]holds [B]103.00[/B] at 103.43, up from 102.35 lows yesterday, [B]EUR [/B]back down to test [B]1.0700 [/B]today after a brief sojourn to [B]1.0800[/B], following US CPI. [B]Sterling[/B] spiked to 1.2270 highs but is below [B]1.2100[/B] now at 1.2085 post UK CPI & RPI. [*][B]Stocks –[/B] The US markets mixed again (-0.46% to +0.57%) led by [B]#TSLA[/B] +7.51 & #[B]NVDA[/B] +5.54% ([B]Buffet[/B] has increased stake in #[B]APPL[/B]) [B]US500[/B] flat -0.03% (-1.16) [B]4136, [/B]holding the key[B] 4100.[/B] [B]US500[/B] FUTS lower at [B]4122 [/B]now[B]. [/B] [/LIST] [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/2023-02-15_09-24-46.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/2023-02-15_09-24-46.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [LIST] [*][B]Commodities – USOil – [/B]Futures topped at $80.60 yesterday before sinking under $78.00 now as US private Inventories rose (EIA data today). [B]Gold –[/B] tanked from $1870 highs yesterday to $1836 lows today on a stronger USD. [*][B]Cryptocurrencies – BTC [/B]– Tested $21.5k lows again yesterday before retaking [B]$22k[/B] now. [/LIST] [B]Today – [/B]EZ Industrial Production, [B]US Retail Sales,[/B] Empire State Manu., Ind. Prod. & Japanese Trade Balance, Speech from ECB’s [B]Lagarde. Earnings: Heineken,[/B] (beat) [B]Kering[/B], (miss) [B]Barclays [/B](miss -7.01%), [B]Glencore[/B], (miss -2.42%) [B] Cisco,[/B] Biogen, Analog Devices, Marathon Oil & Shopify. [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/2023-02-15_09-24-18.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/2023-02-15_09-24-18.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [B]Biggest FX Mover[/B] @ (07:30 GMT) [B]AUDUSD [/B](-1.01%). Tanked over 1% following LOWE’s testimony. Sank from a test of 0.7030 yesterday to under 0.6900 now. MA’s aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & declining, RSI 26.30 & OS, H1 ATR 0.00150, Daily ATR 0.00903. [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/2023-02-15_09-55-12.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/2023-02-15_09-55-12.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B] Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to register for FREE! [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/'][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL] [B]Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [B]Date : 16th February 2023. Market Update – February 16 – USD & Yields hit new recent highs & Stocks bounce.[/B] [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/daily-market-update.png'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/daily-market-update-696x364.png[/IMG][/URL] A big beat for [B]US Retail Sales[/B], lifted the [B]USD[/B], Treasury [B]Yields[/B] and global [B]stock markets, [/B]with a raft of [B]“soft landing” [/B]scenarios swirling and even talk of a [B]“no landing”, [/B]a situation where inflation cools quickly, the economy grows steadily and unemployment remains low without having a knock-on effect for inflation. A real disparity in views now emerging. [B]Goldman Sachs[/B] cut the chance of a US recession in the next 12 months to 25%, from 35%; US 2yr/10yr yield curve at -87bp as the 10yr hits a 7-week high. Overnight: [B]Japan [/B]reported it’s largest ever trade deficit at $174 billion as imports surged due to high energy costs with exports unable to compensate. [B]AUD[/B] lower after a slump in jobs (-11.5k vs +20k) & unemployment up (3.7% from 3.5%). [LIST] [*][B]FX[/B] – [B]USD Index tested into 104.00[/B] for a 28-day high. Back to 103.65 now. [B]EUR [/B]tested the weekly low at 1.0670 before recovering [B]1.0700, JPY [/B] breached [B]134.00[/B] (new 28-day high) & tardes at 133.86 now. [B]Sterling[/B] declined from 1.2175 to once again bounce from below [B]1.2000[/B] to trade at 1.2050 now. [B]Nicola Sturgeon[/B] the First Minister of Scotland announced a shock resignation, that will likely strike a blow for Scottish independence and increase the chances of the Labour Party at next years general election. [*][B]Stocks –[/B] The US markets rose into close after a weak open. (+0.11% to +0.92%) Movers – [B]#ABNB[/B] +13.35% & [B]COIN [/B]+17.5%, [B]OXY & PXD[/B] both shed over -5.2%. [B]US500[/B] 0.28% (11.47) [B]4147, [/B]holding the key 4100. [B]US500[/B] FUTS [B]4161 [/B]now[B]. [/B] [/LIST] [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/2023-02-16_08-27-15.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/2023-02-16_08-27-15.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [LIST] [*][B]Commodities – USOil – [/B]Futures dropped to $77.20, 5-day lows, yesterday after a very large inventories build of 16.3m barrels vs. 2.4m barrels last week. Prices have recovered to $79.20 today. [B]Gold –[/B] tested the support level at $1830 yesterday before recovering to $1840. [*][B]Cryptocurrencies – BTC [/B]– Surged over +[B]10%[/B] yesterday from $22.0k lows, to breach the key [B]$24k[/B] resistance area and test to 24.9k highs. [/LIST] [B]Today – [/B]US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Philly Fed, [B]PPI,[/B] Weekly Claims. Speeches from [B]Fed’s[/B] Bullard, Cook & Mester, [B]ECB’s[/B] Lane, Panetta & de Guindos, [B]BoE’s[/B] Pill. EARNINGS – [B]Pernod Ricard[/B] (miss), [B]Commerzbank, [/B](+7.5%) Orange, Airbus, [B]Standard Chartered[/B] (+2.11%), [B]Nestle[/B] (in-line -0.49%) , Paramount & Dropbox. [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/2023-02-16_08-28-11.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/2023-02-16_08-28-11.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [B]Biggest FX Mover[/B] @ (07:30 GMT) [B]USDJPY [/B](-0.34%). Rallied to 134.35 yesterday but has dipped to 133.75 now. MA’s now flat, MACD histogram & signal line positive but declining, RSI 51.42, H1 ATR 0.196, Daily ATR 1.588. [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/2023-02-16_09-55-16.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/2023-02-16_09-55-16.jpg[/IMG][/URL] Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to register for FREE! [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/'][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL] [B]Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. [/QUOTE]
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