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HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.
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[QUOTE="HFM, post: 216866, member: 32345"] [B]Date : 19th January 2023. Market Update – January 19 – Stocks sink, USD rises after weak data & JPY bounces back.[/B] [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/daily-market-update.png'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/daily-market-update-696x364.png[/IMG][/URL] [B]Weak data[/B] (Retail Sales & PPI) from the US added to recession worries – More [B]Hawkish comments[/B] from a raft of FED speakers talking 5.25-5.5% terminal rates added to a [B]safe haven bid[/B] for the [B]USD[/B], [B]Stock markets to collapse[/B] (-1.24% to -1.81%) under key technical levels and speculators to [B]back the YEN[/B] and push the [B]BOJ[/B] once more. [B]Bonds rallied[/B], the US 10-yr yield dropped to 3.75%. Asia markets are lower and rangebeound & European FUTS are also mixed. [B]NZD[/B] unmoved from surprise the PM [B]Ardern[/B] will step down in Febrary ahead of October elections. [LIST] [*]The [B]USD Index[/B] hit a new 7-mth low at 101.25, before the data and a recovery of the [B]102.00[/B] handle. [*][B]EUR[/B] – holds at [B]1.0800 [/B]now, following a new 8-mth high over 1.0870. [*][B]JPY[/B] – Rip roaring day from [B]131.60[/B] highs yesterday completely reversed and back to test 128.00 now. [*][B]GBP – [/B]Sterling has breached [B]1.2400[/B], following the US data and currently trades at 1.2335. [*][B]Stocks –[/B] The US markets were weak into close (-1.24% to +1.81%). [B]US500[/B] -1.56% to [B]3928 [/B]and below 200 EMA and testing the 50MA. [B]PNC[/B] -6.04%, [B]UAL [/B]-4.57%[B], [/B] [B]US500[/B] FUTS trade at [B]3937.[/B] [/LIST] [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/2023-01-19_09-14-16.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/2023-01-19_09-14-16.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [LIST] [*][B]USOil – [/B]rallied again to test [B]$82.50 [/B]before the US economic data and inventories took it lower to [B]$79.00[/B] where it holds now. [*][B]Gold –[/B] has tested [B]$1900[/B] again today from highs of $1922 yesterday, trades at $1912 now. [*][B]BTC [/B]– Continues to hold over [B]$20k [/B]this week but has relinquished the $21k today to trade at $20.7k. [/LIST] [B]Today – [/B]Building Permits/Housing Starts, Weekly Claims, Norges Bank & CBRT Announcements, [B]ECB Minutes[/B], Speeches from [B]Fed’s[/B] Williams, Brainard & Collins, [B]ECB’s[/B] [B]Lagarde,[/B] Schnabel & Knot, [B]Earnings –[/B] Procter & Gamble and Netflix. [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/2023-01-19_08-59-28.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/2023-01-19_08-59-28.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [B]Biggest FX Mover[/B] @ (07:30 GMT) [B]AUDJPY [/B](+1.41%). Rejected & reversed the post BOJ rally to [B]92.00, [/B]tanking close to 400 pips to test [B]88.00 [/B]lows. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling. RSI 22.87, OS & falling, H1 ATR 0.239, Daily ATR 1.278. [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/2023-01-19_09-16-37.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/2023-01-19_09-16-37.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B] Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to register for FREE! [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/'][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL] [B]Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [b]Date : 20th January 2023. Market Update – January 20 – USD Wallows, Stocks Weaker, Japanese Inflation at 41-year high.[/b] [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/eu_update_pic_nov18-1.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/eu_update_pic_nov18-1-696x391.jpg[/IMG][/URL] Better US data ([B]Unemployment Claims[/B] & [B]Philly Fed Manu Index[/B]) could not lift the USD ([B]USDIndex[/B] under 102.00) & [B]Wall St.[/B] (-0.76% to -0.96%). US hit its latest [B]debt ceiling[/B] ($31.4 trillion) as Republicans try to rein in Biden’s spending. Potential default postponed until June 5. More Hawkish comments from FED speakers (even key Dove Vice Chair [B]Brainard[/B]) talking 5.00%+ terminal rates failed to rally USD. [B]Bonds picked up[/B], the US 10-yr yield dropped to 3.41%. Asia markets are higher ahead of Lunar New Year holidays with the huge Chinese population on the move and all the risks that that entails. [B]Inflation in[/B] [B]Japan[/B] hit a 41-yr high at 4.0% and the [B]PBOC[/B] held rates at 3.65%. [B]NETFLIX[/B] shares (-3.23%) rallied +7.12% after hours after subscriber numbers beat and CEO [B]Hastings[/B] stepped down and moves to Chair. [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/2023-01-20_08-27-20.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/2023-01-20_08-27-20.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [LIST] [*]The [B]USD Index[/B] rallied from 7.5 mth lows at 101.25, on Wednesday, held 101.70 yesterday but continues to break above the [B]102.00[/B] handle. [*][B]EUR[/B] – holds at 1.0825 now, having tested below [B]1.0800[/B] yesterday, following a new 8-mth high over 1.0880 this week. [*][B]JPY[/B] – Bounced from sub 128.00 lows at 127.80 and trades north of 129.00 following Japanese inflation data. [B] Yen [/B]is the weakest of the G7 currencies today. [*][B]GBP – [/B]Sterling was unable to hold the breach of [B]1.2400[/B], this week but holds its bid at 1.2330 today. UK [B]Consumer Confidence[/B] and December [B]Retail Sales[/B] both missed significantly. BOE Governor Bailey put a positive spin on a possible quick decline in Uk inflation. [*][B]Stocks –[/B] The US markets were weak again yesterday (-0.76% to -0.96%). [B]US500[/B] -0.76%, breached the key [B]3900[/B] support, the 50 SMA & test the 20 SMA) to close at [B]3898. [/B] [B]US500[/B] FUTS hold 3900 at [B]3924.[/B] [/LIST] [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/2023-01-20_08-15-46.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/2023-01-20_08-15-46.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [LIST] [*][B]USOil – [/B]plunged to post the low of the week at $78.41 before inventories data showed a build of 8.4 million barrels (vs. an expected drawdown of 2.4 million barrels) and prices rallied to $81.50 and holds at $81.00 now. [*][B]Gold –[/B] has hit 9-mth highs today at [B]$1935[/B] again today and trades at $1930 now. The spectre of CB’s reluctant to talk pivot and season factors help the key commodity. [*][B]BTC [/B]– Continues to hold the [B]$20k [/B]handle this week and is back to test $21k today. [/LIST] [B]Today – [/B] US Existing Home Sales, Speeches from ECB’s [B]Lagarde[/B] & Elderson[B]. Earnings –[/B] Ericsson (beat) Final day of WEF in Davos. [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/2023-01-20_09-13-58.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/2023-01-20_09-13-58.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [B]Biggest FX Mover[/B] @ (07:30 GMT) [B]AUDJPY [/B](+0.21%). Rallied from a 400 pips reversal yesterday down to 88.00 to trade at[B] 89.35 [/B]now[B].[/B] MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 22.87, OS & falling, H1 ATR 0.239, Daily ATR 1.278. [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/2023-01-20_09-35-11.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/2023-01-20_09-35-11.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b] Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. [/QUOTE]
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