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Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental updates by Solid ECN
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[QUOTE="Solid ECN, post: 207346, member: 83167"] [JUSTIFY][ATTACH type="full"]21284[/ATTACH][/JUSTIFY] [HR][/HR] [HEADING=1][JUSTIFY]EURUSD[/JUSTIFY][/HEADING] [JUSTIFY]The European currency shows a moderate decline against the US dollar during the Asian session, correcting after a rather active growth the day before, which brought the instrument to new local highs from April 14. In general, the situation on the market is changing little and investors are only reacting to the emergence of mixed macroeconomic statistics in Europe and the US. In turn, the demand for the dollar is still supported against the backdrop of escalating tensions in Ukraine, as well as due to expectations of an early tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy in early May. The European Central Bank (ECB) in this sense lags behind the US regulator. Earlier, calls for a possible increase in interest rates were shattered by the skepticism of the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, who announced additional risks for the region's economy. However, the "hawks" do not leave attempts to put pressure on the European regulator against the backdrop of extremely alarming inflation data. The day before, the markets drew attention to the German Producer Price Index, which in March accelerated from 1.4% to 4.9%, while market forecasts assumed growth of only up to 2.6%. In annual terms, consumer inflation jumped from 25.9% to 30.9%, which also exceeded investors' estimates of an increase to 29.1%. Today, the focus of investors will be on statistics on consumer inflation in the euro area. Forecasts suggest acceleration in price dynamics to 2.5% in monthly terms and 7.5% in annual terms. [/JUSTIFY] [HEADING=1][JUSTIFY]GBPUSD[/JUSTIFY][/HEADING] [JUSTIFY]The British pound is traded with mixed dynamics against the US currency during the morning session, consolidating near 1.3050. The pound showed a fairly active growth the day before, supported by weak macroeconomic statistics from the US, but on Thursday the "bullish" momentum faded noticeably, as trading participants await the publication of new data, as well as speeches by the representative of the Bank of England, Catherine Mann, and the Governor of the British regulator, Andrew Bailey. US statistics released on Wednesday showed a 2.7% drop in Existing Home Sales, after falling by a more significant 8.6% a month earlier. In absolute terms, Sales fell from 5.93 million to 5.77 million, slightly worse than market forecasts of 5.8 million. Until the end of the week, investors also expect the release of statistics on Retail Sales in the UK for March and business activity in the manufacturing and services sector from Markit in April. Forecasts for all indicators are rather negative, and therefore the pressure on the pound may increase by the end of the week. [/JUSTIFY] [HEADING=1][JUSTIFY]AUDUSD[/JUSTIFY][/HEADING] [JUSTIFY]The Australian dollar is showing mixed trading against the US dollar during the Asian session, holding near 0.7430. Since the opening of the daily session, the instrument has been trading mainly with the downtrend, but this still fits into the framework of a weak technical correction after active growth the day before. The Australian and New Zealand currencies rose significantly on Wednesday, reacting to the appearance of rather weak macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of Existing Home Sales. As a result of March, Existing Home Sales fell again by 2.7% after a collapse of 8.6% a month earlier, which turned out to be much worse than analysts' forecasts. In addition, the quotes of AUD/USD were supported by statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve, which weakened the hopes of investors for more active actions of the regulator aimed at tightening monetary policy in the country. The President of the Chicago Fed, Charles Evans, said that he adheres to a plan to raise the rate twice, by 0.50% each time. In turn, Fed spokesman Rafael Bostic, who is the President of the Fed of Atlanta, noted that raising the rate by more than 0.50% would be premature and could have negative consequences for the growth of the US economy. [/JUSTIFY] [HEADING=1][JUSTIFY]USDJPY[/JUSTIFY][/HEADING] [JUSTIFY]The US dollar is recovering its position against the Japanese yen in Asian trading, correcting after a downtrend the day before, when the US currency showed a decrease in almost the entire spectrum of the market against the background of the rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve, which significantly corrected investors' expectations regarding a possible rate hike at the May meeting by more than 0.50%. In addition, traders drew attention to not the strongest statistics from the US on the dynamics of Existing Home Sales. In turn, pressure on the yen was exerted by data from Japan. In March, Exports from the country slowed down from 19.1% to 14.7%, which turned out to be worse than analysts' forecasts at the level of 17.5%, while Imports for the same period decreased from 34.1% to 31.2%, while investors expected 28.9%. All this led to a trade deficit in March at -412.4 billion yen, which was significantly worse than the -100.8 billion yen forecast by analysts. Additional pressure on the position of the instrument was exerted by the Tertiary Industry Index of Japan, which fell by 1.3% in February after a decrease of 0.7% a month earlier. [/JUSTIFY] [HEADING=1][JUSTIFY]XAUUSD[/JUSTIFY][/HEADING] [JUSTIFY]Gold prices are consolidating near 1950.00, showing multidirectional dynamics yesterday and during today's Asian session. The quotes were slightly supported yesterday by the statements of the US Federal Reserve, which reduced the likelihood of a more rapid tightening of monetary policy during the May meeting of the regulator. An additional growth factor was not the most confident macroeconomic statistics from the US, which allowed the USD Index to retreat from its record highs. The pressure on gold, in turn, is gradually increasing as there is talk of a possible overcoming of the peak of inflation in the foreseeable future. Today, traders are waiting for the publication of statistics on the dynamics of Jobless Claims in the US. In addition, the Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to give a speech during the day.[/JUSTIFY] [/QUOTE]
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