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Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental updates by Solid ECN
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[QUOTE="Solid ECN, post: 207002, member: 83167"] [JUSTIFY][ATTACH type="full"]21141[/ATTACH][/JUSTIFY] [HR][/HR] [JUSTIFY][B]EURUSD[/B] The European currency is showing insignificant growth against the US dollar during today's Asian session, recovering after moderate falling the day before. At the moment, EUR/USD is trading near 1.0840, not far from the local lows of March 7. The pressure on the positions of the single currency is exerted by the overall negative situation on the market, associated with a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the region with a simultaneous increase in inflation. The data released the day before confirmed the acceleration of inflation in Germany to 7.3%, while the outlook remains negative. The EU countries continue to impose new restrictions on the Russian economy, which so far only lead to a sharp increase in energy prices. The fifth package of sanctions, among other things providing for an embargo on the supply of coal and a number of other types of solid fuels from Russia, was agreed by the EU last week. However, the main fuel bans will come into effect only from August 2022. There is no embargo on oil or gas supplies in the new sanctions package, since this issue remains painful for Europe, due to the great dependence of many countries on Russian energy. In particular, Germany opposes the introduction of restrictions. Nevertheless, the general trend towards a gradual withdrawal of resources from the Russian Federation is unlikely to change even in the event of a hypothetical end of the conflict in Eastern Europe. [B]GBPUSD[/B] The British pound traded with an uptrend against the US currency during the morning session, trying to regain a foothold above 1.3000. Activity on the market remains quite low, as market participants are waiting for the publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the dynamics of consumer prices. Inflation is one of the key indicators today, since it is on it that world regulators largely rely when choosing the vector of monetary policy. According to current forecasts, the UK Consumer Price Index in March will accelerate from 6.2% to 6.7%, updating record highs. At the moment, the positions of the pound are supported by relatively optimistic data on the UK labor market, which were published the day before. ILO Unemployment Rate unexpectedly decreased from 3.9% to 3.8% with a neutral forecast. Average Earnings Excluding Bonus for the same period accelerated growth from 3.8% to 4.0%, which coincided with analysts' forecasts. Average Earnings Including Bonus increased from 4.8% to 5.4%. Only BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales were noticeably disappointing, dropping 0.4% in March after rising 2.7% a month earlier. [B]AUDUSD[/B] The Australian dollar shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against the US dollar during today's Asian session, consolidating near 0.7450. After the release of a block of data from the US on the dynamics of consumer inflation, market participants expect the emergence of new drivers. Statistics reflected the acceleration of annual inflation in the US in March to 8.5%, which is the highest level in 41 years. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 1.2% from 0.8%, the highest since September 2005. Consumer Price Index excluding Food & Energy in the US slowed down from 0.5% to 0.3% in March. In annual terms, the indicator fixed at around 6.5%, accelerating only by 0.1%. One way or another, inflation in the United States is growing at a record pace, primarily due to a sharp increase in energy prices. The current geopolitical situation is not conducive to quick changes in the trend, and therefore the US Federal Reserve will probably still decide on a faster tightening of monetary policy in May, raising the rate by 50 basis points at once. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar was supported the day before by data from Australia. National Australia Bank's Business Conditions index rose from 9 to 18 points in March, while the Confidence index for the same period rose from 13 to 16 points, with a forecast of a decline to 8 points. [B]USDJPY[/B] The US dollar is again trading with an uptrend against the Japanese yen during the Asian session, holding near the record highs updated at the beginning of this week. Despite the publication of statistics on consumer prices in the US the day before, activity on the instrument remains rather low. Annual inflation in the US reached 8.5% in March, which was even higher than analysts' forecasts by 0.1%. However, these data do not change much: the US Federal Reserve has already announced its readiness for a more rapid tightening of monetary policy since May, and otherwise the US economy is still showing rather optimistic results. The prospects for the development of the current geopolitical crisis in Eastern Europe, which further pushes energy prices up, remain unclear. However, the markets have already gotten used to the growing uncertainty, and in addition, the United States still has leverage on commodity markets, since resource prices are largely determined today by the sanctions policy of the United States and its partners. Pressure on the yen is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Machinery Orders in February collapsed by 9.8% after falling by 2% a month earlier. Market forecasts assumed a decrease of only 1.5%.[/JUSTIFY] [/QUOTE]
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