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Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis
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[QUOTE="Fort Financial Services, post: 88071, member: 31380"] [color=#00cc00][u][b]"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]14.08.2015[/b][/color] [i][color=#ff6600][b]Fundamental analysis[/b][/color][/i] [i]The US dollar got under strong pressure on its main opponents’ part this week it had fallen against the euro, the pound and the yen. The reason was the optimism decline about the US rapid rate hike amid the Chinese yuan decline that continued to fall after its devaluation. The pair EUR/USD raised slightly amid the European stock exchanges sales. Investors closed their long positions on the equity markets and transferred it to the bond market which supported demand for the euro. After a decrease the pair grew by the end of the trades. By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had increased amid the oil prices stabilization. The US Energy Department has reported the crude oil reserves reduction for the third consecutive week that contributed to the Brent brand consolidation. After an increase the pound also consolidated. The rapidly growing opinions about the US rapid rate hike illusory prospects drove down the pair dollar / yen. The Japanese currency strengthened in the last session against the US dollar. However, the US dollar was able to neutralize some of the losses by the end of the trades with the changes support in the US government debt market where the "Treasuries" prices declined slightly after the initial growth. However, the pair closed the yesterday’s trades closed with the pair’s decrease.[/i] [color=#ff6600][i][b]Technical analysis[/b][/i][/color] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Euro (EUR)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] According to the July final report the consumer price index increased by 0.2%. A month earlier the index value has decreased by 0.1%. These figures coincide with the analysts’ forecast. The France consumer price index decreased by 0.4% in July compared with the previous month after a decline by 0.1% a month earlier. These figures coincide with the analysts’ forecasts. According to the forecasts, the US jobless claims had to remain unchanged and fix 270 thousand claims. The data came out at the level of 274 thousand. The upward trend reversed towards the correction. The correctional price reduction was on the low volumes. The pair fell below the support level of 1.1150, but then it increased again. The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1150. After breaking 1.1150 the buyers may go to 1.1260. [img]http://savepic.net/7093032.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Pound (GBP)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The «UK housing prices balance indicator by RICS» rose more than expected for the last month. According to the report prepared by the British Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), the indicator (given to the seasonal fluctuations) was 44% compared with 40% the previous month. Experts expected the rate growth for the last month to 42%. The United States provided the retail sales important data in July and the number of initial jobless claims. The retail sales data in July increased by 0,6% and the initial jobless claims came out less by 4 000 the forecasted median. Buyers have broken through and consolidated above the level of 1.5550. The level breakthrough was on the low volumes, but it opened the way for the resistance level of 1.5670. Then the pair rebounded downwards and formed a consolidation. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] The upward bounce potential target are 1.5670, 1.5775. [img]http://savepic.net/7078696.jpg[/img] [0:06:03] Валдис Петрис: [color=#00cc00][u][b]Yen (JPY)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The Japan economic showed the machinery and equipment orders reduction by 7.9% m/m in June while the strongest decline was forecasted - by 6.5% m/m. However, it did not affect the market. We did not expect the US retail sales publication better than the consensus forecast. The initial jobless claims report was expected unchanged at the level of 270K. The release showed 274K. The pair USD/JPY is showing a technical recovery from the minimum when the dollar turned downwards and fell against other major currencies. However, the trades are below the key resistance of 125.50. The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] If the price fixates below the support 125.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 123.50 and 122.40. [img]http://savepic.net/7139115.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Franc (CHF)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The dollar index has fallen amid the Treasury bond yields sharp decline in connection with speculations, concerning the China measures on the yuan devaluation decline that will lead to the «deflation exports" that will force the Fed to postpone interest rates increase at least until December. According to the data, the Switzerland import and producer price index weakened by -0.1% m/m in June to -0.3% m/m in July and from -6.1% y/y to -6.4% y/y. Investors focused their attention on the jobless claims report which is expected to reach the level of 270,000 but the data showed a growth to 274,000. The continued price consolidation below the resistance level of 0.9850 was followed by an active decline by more than 200 points. The prices declined to the support near 0.9750. then the pair rebounded upwards and broke through this level upwards. The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] The approach to the level of 0.9540 may lead to a price rebound upwards. [img]http://savepic.net/7129899.jpg[/img] [i][b]*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, [color=#0099cc]Alexander Kofman.[/color][/b][/i] [/QUOTE]
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