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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 28/07/2010
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[QUOTE="Forexpros04, post: 13487, member: 1973"] [color=black][u][b]ForexPros Daily Analysis July 28, 2010[/b][/u] [u][b]Free webinar on ForexPros - Let's do some simple Trend Trading[/b][/u] Expert: Kellie Durazo When: Tue, August 17, 2010, 10:00a.m. ET Why spend hours analyzing charts when you can learn a few simple trading strategies that are effective and easy to learn. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will teach you how to follow and trade the trend "making the trend your friend", enhancing your technical analysis and giving you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.[/color] [url=http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/let%27s-do-some-simple-trend-trading-11171][color=black][u]Click here to join free[/u][/color][/url] [color=black]--- [u][b]Fundamental Analysis[/b][/u]: Initial Jobless Claims The Initial Jobless Claims is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 464.00K. ---[/color] [url=http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd][color=black][u][b]Euro Dollar[/b][/u][/color][/url] [color=black]The Euro didn't even come close to the support specified in yesterday's report 1.2872, finding a bottom at 1.2950, and refusing to drift away from the 1.30 level for more than half a cent, before trying to break 1.3026, without being able to hold above it. Therefore, once again, we await a test of the important resistance 1.3026, where there is the 2-month high. But, we will not lose interest in our newly found rising channel we talked about yesterday, and when we look at the hourly chart, we find that Friday's dive has stopped at the bottom of a new rising channel which will be placed under our focus for today, knowing that the bottom of the channel is at 1.2903. Moreover, we find the area between Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.3075 and May 10th top 1.3092 to be very interesting. Thus, we recommend giving attention to all these areas, and we believe that each of them will play a role in dictating today's direction! In case we break the support at 1.2903, we will drop with the Euro for today and probably the next few days, targeting 1.2792, and 1.2691. On the other side, the resistance is at the important 1.3026. If broken, the Euro will continue its bounce from the channel bottom, targeting 1.3092 & 1.3200. [b]Support:[/b] * 1.2903: the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart. * 1.2792: Friday's low. * 1.2691: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rise from 1.2150. [b]Resistance:[/b] * 1.3026: Jul 20th top & 2-month high. * 1.3092: May 10th high. * 1.3200: Apr 23rd low. --- [u][b]USD/JPY[/b][/u] The Dollar penetrated the resistance specified in yesterday's report 87.37, and came extremely close to the suggested target 88.01 (yesterday's high was 87.96). As we have said several times in last week's reports, signs show that the possibility of a rising correction to correct the fall from June 3rd top 89.09 to July 16th low 86.25 is growing. On the top of these signs: the inverted hammer formation, which appeared on the daily chart, and the completed 5-wave move, and further more what looks to be the corrective waves (a) & (b) forming in an ideal manner (please refer to the attached chart), and wave (c) developing in an ideal fashion, and approaching one of its ideal targets (short term 61.8% Fibonacci level at 88.01). Therefore, and even though we are negative about this pair on the medium term, we should not neglect these signs which force themselves upon us for today! Short term support is at 87.25, and if broken, the price will resume its drop after a 3-wave correction, targeting 86.46 & 85.84. Resistance is at 88.01. A break here indicates that the odds of a continuation of the correction of the 5 waves down from 92.87 are still massive. This will target Fibonacci retracement levels for the whole drop from 92.87, with the first 2 of them at 88.78 & 89.56. It is worth mentioning that breaking wave 5 bottom 86.25 even with a few pips would strongly indicate the termination of the correction we are currently living, and will officially announce a new wave down! [b]Support:[/b] * 87.25: the rising trend line from Jul 22nd low on the hourly chart. * 86.46: Jul 19th low. * 85.84: Nov 30th 2009 low. [b]Resistance:[/b] * 88.01: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 89.09. * 88.78: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the 5 waves down). * 89.56: Fibonacci 50% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the 5 waves down). ---[/color] [url=http://www.forexpros.com][color=black][u]Forex[/u][/color][/url] [color=black]trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- [b]Disclaimer:[/b][/color] [i][color=black]Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.[/color][/i] [/QUOTE]
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