Forex news and analysis regular update by fxdailyinfo

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Dollar dips on dot-plot disappointment, BoE in focus

The Federal Reserve has lifted interest rates to their highest level since the financial crisis, but Dollar bulls are clearly unamused.

Although on Wednesday, as widely expected, US interest rates were raised by 0.25% to a new band of 1.5%-1.75%, investors were more concerned with the dot-plot and Powell’s press conference. While the policy statement was generally positive and US economic growth was revised higher for 2018 and 2019, a crucial ingredient for hawks was missing. There is a suspicion that the Fed heavily disappointed markets by leaving the dot-plot unchanged for 2018 at a grand total of three hikes. Although there was a small upgrade to the dot-plot forecast for 2019 and 2020, this did little to support King Dollar. Jerome Powell’s noticeable caution during his conference and statement on how there was no clear indication in data of an accelerating inflation, encouraged investors to attack the Dollar further.

Taking a look at the technical picture, the Dollar Index was vulnerable to heavy losses after the Federal Reserve turned out to be less hawkish than anticipated. The breakdown below 90.00 could invite a decline towards 89.50 and 89.00, respectively.

Sterling higher ahead of BoE

The main event risk for Sterling today will be the Bank of England monetary policy decision, which is widely expected to conclude with interest rates left unchanged at 0.5%.

Investors will direct their attention towards the language of the statement for any fresh insights about potential timings of a change in UK interest rates this year. A sense of optimism over the Brexit transition deal, coupled with the fact that wage growth accelerated at the fastest pace in over two years, has boosted speculation of a rate hike in May. Sterling could receive a further boost if BoE policymakers mirror these expectations by adopting a hawkish stance and signalling a rate hike in May.

Focusing on the technical perspective, the GBPUSD extended gains on Thursday with prices hitting a fresh one-month high at 1.4170 as of writing. The combination of Dollar weakness following Wednesday’s dot-plot disappointment and Sterling strength has brought GBPUSD bulls back into the game. A breach above 1.4180 could encourage an appreciation towards 1.4260 and 1.4300.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

It’s remarkable how Gold prices soared on Wednesday despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. The reason behind Gold’s incredible rebound could be linked to the fact the Federal Reserve was less hawkish than anticipated, which simply weakened the Dollar. With the Dollar tumbling after the US Federal Reserve disappointed investors, Gold found itself back in fashion. The yellow metal could build on the current upside momentum, if political uncertainty in Washington and lingering trade war fears support the flight to safety. From a technical standpoint, Gold has broken above the $1330 resistance level. Previous resistance at $1330 could transform into a dynamic support that encourages an incline higher towards $1340. Alternatively, a failure for bulls to keep above $1330 could invite a decline back towards $1314.
 

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What’s next? – GOLD 23.03.18

Oil prices were higher in Asian trading hours on Friday, with market players awaiting the weekly US oil rig count later in the session.
The US West Texas Intermediate crude contracts were up 0.93 percent to $64.90 per barrel as of 06:30 GMT. Meanwhile, Brent futures rose 0.74 percent to $69.42 a barrel.

Baker Hughes is expected to release its weekly oil rig count for the US as of 18:00 GMT.
Crude benchmarks settled lower on Thursday as most investors opted to take profits following strong gains this week, although sentiment remained on the green side, opening the doors to a potential short-term upward correction [URL deleted] forex news.
Morgan Stanley said US crude inventories are expected to fall later in 2018 if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to grow.
“On May 12, the US government will need to decide on the renewal of the waiver of Iranian sanctions,” the bank said.” “Depending on the outcome, this could affect Iranian exports, including possibly taking a few hundred thousand barrels per day off the market.”
Also, the investment bank said crude prices could benefit from Venezuela’s output shortage.

“Any restrictions imposed by the US government on diluent exports from the US or crude imports from Venezuela into the US could lead to a further decline in overall production.”

Earlier this week, the US Energy Information Administration said that crude stockpiles for the week ended March 16 dropped by 2.6 million barrels vs a forecasted gain of 2.6 million barrels.
 
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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (March 26 - 30, 2018)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:


EURUSD
This pair has consolidated so far this month. Price has been ranging between the support line at 1.2250 and the resistance line at 1.2450. This week may see an end to the neutrality of the market, as price would either move above the resistance line at 1.2450 (staying above it); or it would move below the support line at 0.2250 (staying below it). However, a strong movement to the south is much more likely this week, owing to a bearish outlook on EUR pairs.


USDCHF
In the short-term, this pair is bullish. Since the support level at 0.9200 was tested in February 16, 2018, price has rallied by over 350 pips, moving briefly above the resistance level at 0.9550. The market has been corrected lower since then, closing below the resistance level at 0.9500. A rally from here would save the bullish bias; while a plunge from here would render it invalid. Nonetheless, the market is more likely to go upwards as a result of a bearish outlook on EURUSD.


GBPUSD
The bias on GBPUSD has become bullish again, for price went upwards by 250 pups last week. Even the movement this month has been largely bullish (price has gained a minimum of 400 pips). The distribution territory at 1.4200 was tested, but price closed below the distribution territory at 1.4100 on Friday. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern the market, which points to a possibility of further bullish journey, as price targets the distribution territories of 1.4150, 1.4200 and 1.4250. This, nevertheless, cannot rule out a possibility of a strong pullback in the market. GBP pairs will experience high volatility this week.

USDJPy
The pair traded southwards last week, to corroborate the presence of bears. Since January 8, 2018, price has lost 830 pips. It lost 170 pips last week, after testing the supply level at 106.50. Since there is a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, price can still reach the demand levels at 104.50, 104.00 and 103.50 before the end of this week. A rally may occur along the way, but it should not be something that would override the extant bearish outlook on the market.


EURJPY
Although the market is choppy, the bearish trend has been maintained. Price has been going southward since February 5, having lost almost 800 pips since then. Last week, there was a rally attempt in the context of an uptrend, which was halted once the supply zone at 131.50 was tested. The market shed 250 pips following that, to test the demand zone at 129.00, and closed below the supply zone at 129.50. The expected weakness in EUR, as well as the bearish outlook on the market, may enable the demand zones at 129.00, 128.50 and 128.00 to be tested this week.


GBPJPY
The cross is bearish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. This is a choppy market: An abortive bullish attempt was made last week, but that was rejected as the supply zone at 150.00 was tested. Price came down after that, thus cancelling the short-term effect of the bullish attempt. This week, there may not be any rallies that will cancel the existing bearishness in the market. Price could go further southwards, but it is not expected to go below the demand zone at 145.00, which is the ultimate target for the week.



This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Volatility is good for trading… Volatility can and should be used to a trader’s advantage. It all comes back to understanding and believing in your trading system.” - Jasper Lawler
 
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Forex Weekly Outlook - Mar. 26-30 - Trade fears ahead of Good Friday


The US dollar rocked and rolled on the Fed’s dovish hike and the renewed fears of a trade war. Politics will continue moving currencies and we also have final US, UK, and Canadian GDP as well as other figures ahead of Easter. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

The Fed raised rates as expected but did not change the dot-plot forecast for 2018, leaving two more rate hikes on the cards this year. The upgrades for 2019, 2020, and the long-term were minimal. In addition, Powell echoed concerns about trade and said he was surprised wages did not rise. The dollar did not like it. On the trade front, the Administration approved exemptions to Europe, Canada, Mexico, Australia and several other countries and turned its attention to China. The greenback continued struggling especially against the yen and not so much against the Australian dollar. The pound enjoyed the announcement of transition Brexit deal, even though there are a few holes in it. The euro was relatively steady as the dollar’s weakness was countered by fears that euro-zone growth has peaked.

Updates:

  1. US CB Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 14:00. The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence rose to a high level of 130.8 points in February and another increase to 131.2 is on the cards now. The parallel University of Michigan figure for March has already surprised to the upside.
  2. US GDP (final): Wednesday, 12:30. The third and final read of US growth for Q4 2017 is expected to show a small upgrade from 2.5% to 2.7% annualized growth. The world’s largest economy enjoyed robust growth in Q2, Q3, and also Q4, while prospects for Q1 2018 already look dimmer.
  3. Pending Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. Sales pending the final transaction fell sharply in January, by 4.7%. A rebound is now on the cards. Figures from the housing sector were mixed lately.
  4. UK GDP: Thursday, 8:30. The UK economy grew at a slower pace than many of its peers in 2017. The final quarter saw a growth rate of 0.4% q/q according to the second estimate and the final read is expected to confirm it. While changes to the quarterly growth figures are not common, a change to the annual number happens quite often.
  5. Canadian GDP: Thursday, 12:30. Canada is unique in publishing growth figures on a monthly basis. Back in December, the economy grew by 0.1% m/m. We will now get the first read for January, a peek into the new year.
  6. US Core PCE Price Index: Thursday, 12:30. This is the Fed’s favorite inflation measure and has an impact despite coming after the CPI data. Year over year, the Core PCE increased by 1.5% in January and the same figures are projected for February. Month over month, core prices are projected to rise at a slower pace: 0.2% after 0.3% beforehand. The US also releases personal spending, personal income, and weekly jobless claims at the same time.
 

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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 26 - 30, 2018

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

  • EUR/USD has been in a sideways trend for the whole of March, with a slight predominance of bearish trends. This is exactly the kind of movement that was forecasted last week. Pressed by the bears, the pair tried to reach support at 1.2200, but failed even this, and fixed the local bottom at 1.2239. After that, the pair turned around and completed the trading session in the 2018 Pivot Point zone, at 1.2350;
  • GBP/USD. At the time of writing the previous forecast, the indicators on D1 pointed to the north, believing that both the two-week uptrend and the more global one, which began in January 2017, would continue. This scenario was supported by 40% of experts as well, referring to the height of 1.4145. This forecast turned out to be correct, and at the very beginning of the five-day period the pair went up sharply. Basing on information from the Bank of England on Thursday, March 22, it even tried to break through resistance 1.4145, but failed to gain a foothold above this level, and rolled back very soon. As for the end of the week, the pair spent it making fluctuations around the same level of 1.4145;
  • 70% of experts, graphical analysis on D1 and 90% of indicators on H4 and D1 expected the continuation of the USD/JPY movement in the medium-term channel. This was what happened - it dropped to the level of 104.63 on Friday, after which there was a slight retreat, and the pair met Saturday at the level of 104.75;
  • Now, cryptocurrencies. As for bitcoin, the experts expected its rise to 8,850-9,400, and by the middle of the week the pair BTC/USD fulfilled the above task, reaching the level of 9,145.
    For the pair LTC/USD, a rise to the zone of 170.00-181.00 was forecasted. However, after its fall on Saturday and Sunday, it seemed to be impossible. But the bulls managed to regain strength and managed to raise the pair to a height of 174.00 on Wednesday. Similar dynamics was demonstrated by the Ripple, having risen to the set level of 0.70, but still failing to gain a foothold above it.
    But the Ethereum did not please the experts who expected its growth to the level of 655.00. In reality, it was only able to reach 587.00.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

  • 60% of analysts expect the pair EUR/USD to rise to the level of 1.2415, and then even higher - to the height of 1.2445. The next target is 1.2520. Graphical analysis on D1, 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4 agree with this forecast.
    As for most of the indicators on D1, they have taken a neutral position. This time, 40% of experts and 15% of oscillators side with the bears, giving signals that the pair is overbought. The support levels are 1.2240, 1.2200 and 1.2155;
  • GBP/USD. Most analysts (60%) still forecast a decline of the pair first to 1.4115, and in case of its breakdown, even lower - to 1.4080. However, only 5% of the indicators agree with this development. The remaining 95 percent, supported by 40% of analysts, have sided with the bulls, expecting the continuation of the uptrend. The nearest resistance levels are 1.4215 and 1.4275, the final target is January 2018 high, at 1.4345;
  • Opinions on the future of the USD/JPY looks almost the same as last week: 70% of experts, 90% of indicators on H4 and D1, look to the south, expecting the pair to continue moving in the medium-term down channel. The targets are 104.00 and 102.65.
    At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 warns that, before continuing to fall, the pair may rise to 105.70-106.30 for a while, and possibly even higher - to 107.00. 10% of oscillators, giving signals that the pair is oversold, expect correction as well;


  • The forecast for the basic currency pairs looks as follows.
    BTC/USD - Experts expect the continuation of the uptrend. Targets that the pair can reach by the middle of the week, are 9,870 and 10,080. At the same time, it is possible that the bullish impulse will be stronger, and it will rise to the zone 11,500-11,750. At the end of the week, there may be a change of trend and a relatively small decline;
    Similar dynamics are expected for other pairs. ETH/USD: targets are 740.00 and 866.00. LTC/USD: 193.40 and 217.30. XRP/USD: 0.670, 0.730 and 0.890.
We would like to stress at this point that even minor events can influence the trends and volatility of cryptocurrencies. Therefore, we strongly suggest that you pay attention to smart money management, which, combined with leverage of 1:1000, will significantly reduce your trading risks. After all, to buy 10 Bitcoins, 100 Ethereums, 500 Litecoins or 100,000 Ripples, with such leverage you will only need $100, and you can keep the rest of your money in reserve.
 

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What’s next? – DAX 28.03.18



The DAX futures were down 1.40 percent at 11,810 in early trading hours on Tuesday, with focus turning to the US calendar amid a lack of European publications.

Earlier in today’s session, the GfK German consumer climate indicator for April came in at 10.9 points, outperforming a forecasted 10.7 reading and a prior 10.8 points.

The German benchmark ended Tuesday higher, adding 1.56 percent with Technology, Financial Services and Construction components contributing most gains.

The best performers of the session were Deutsche Boerse, which added 3.45 percent or 3.700 points to 111.100, followed by Infineon Technologies rising 3.07 percent or 0.670 points at 22.460 and Fresenius Medical Care up 2.59 percent or 2.060 points to 81.460.

The worst performers of the session were Commerzbank, which eased 0.40 percent or 0.044 points to 10.850. Muench. Rueckvers. was up 0.19 percent or 0.35 points to close at 184.60 and E.ON added 0.40 percent or 0.035 points to 8.854.

From a technical perspective, the German index could storm the 11,726 mark pretty soon. There is no much support and therefore, a downward extension is likely unless data helps out.

The 12,000 points are still on the watch for bulls, but they have been struggling to find enough momentum to break above and consolidate once for all there.

With no other relevant reports scheduled in Europe for the day, attention will move to the United States, where investors expect a fresh look at the fourth-quarter gross domestic product at 12:30 GMT, with an upgrade to 2.6 percent expected. At the same time traders await the goods trade balance for Feb. Pending home sales are due for release at 14:00 GMT.



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S&P 500 breaks 200 day moving average

Easter Monday is normally characterised by light trading, but today was anything but out the ordinary, as the US equity markets swung lower sharply on the back of the announcements of tariffs from China on the US. This is quite serious as the 200 day moving average has been broken, and this held back bearish movements previously. With the last line of defence now gone, it could be a case of the bears looking to push their control. This in theory has not been helped by President Trumps attacks on Amazon which have sent tech stocks down as he looks for a target. If the market sentiment is anything to go by then I would be deeply concerned for the bulls, as many have long thought of the share market being overbought, and this could be the start of some serious bearish pressure.

With the 200 day moving average being broken I would expect to see some bullish pressure to see what the market is made of. In this instance I believe any push-back up higher would likely treat the 200 day moving average as dynamic resistance in this instance. The target now for any bears looking for lower lows will be of course the 2532 resistance level, closely followed up by the 2508 level. This area will be the key to see if the S&P 500 has the legs to go even lower, and the bulls and bears will battle it out around here. In the event the bulls cane reassert control, then as mentioned before the 200 day moving average will be a hard task to beat with such a huge extension lower. All in all market sentiment is bearish now, and it will be hard to beat. But it's also worth noting that this is no 2008 scenario, the American economy is still doing strong and it's mainly politics which is driving the lower lows. In reality we could just end up with the market correction we've anticipated for some time.

Crude oil has been one of the big movers today as well, but this should come as no surprise after the recent economic woes on equity markets have spooked bulls, and as the USD lifted strongly against most of the major pairs. Many market commentators have been quick to point that over $70.00 a barrel seems unlikely as demand stays static and they expect a range of 50-70 dollars in the short to medium term. Then again time and time again we've seen commentators be wrong and oil can swing quite wildly.

On the charts the fall lower has so far been stopped by the 20 day moving average. This shows reluctance from the bears to test the technical's, so this looks more like a test the waters sort of move today. However, the ceiling at 66.05 has held for some time and is not looking like it may face much pressure. As a result this could just be trending sideways for the short term and levels will be key for traders looking to take profits. In particular support levels at 62.64, 61.00 and 58.88. With the long term daily bullish trend line to also take into consideration.
 

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Global markets consolidate, but remain indecisive



Investors are likely to have breathed a sigh of relief after the US stock markets’ worst start to the second quarter since the 1929 Great Depression failed to encourage a widespread selloff across the global markets, as traders returned to their desks after the annual Easter holidays.

While we are still encountering quite a subdued trading atmosphere, where major stock markets are in general struggling to find their direction, we are not facing the type of selling pressure that should worry people that there is some serious distress in the equity markets. It does remain difficult to pinpoint whether trade war concerns, or the recent selloff in stocks like Amazon, are driving the market volatility but there is some room to side with the latter. Another tweet from President Trump reinforcing his negative view on Amazon sent the US stock markets on another volatile ride overnight. It does not appear that trade tensions between the US and China are driving the price action this week.

The general consensus is that a trade war will be of no benefit to anyone, which indicates why investors are not reacting that sensitively to the ongoing headlines between Beijing and Washington. Beijing has, as you would expect, condemned the news that the United States published a list of over 1000 Chinese products that it plans to hit with a 25% tariff, but it has not created much of a reaction in the financial markets as it stands.

There has been just as muted of a reaction in the currency markets, where it can be said that many currencies are not reacting as heavily to the ongoing shifts in sentiment for the equity markets as you would usually expect in a period of higher volatility. This can be seen as another reason to suggest that trade war concerns are not driving the direction of the markets, and that it is the selloff in corporations like Amazon that is behind the erratic behaviour in stock markets. If investors were significantly concerned that there was a risk of a trade war, currencies like the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc would be performing much stronger than they have over recent trading sessions. Emerging market currencies like the Malaysian Ringgit, Thai Baht, Indonesian Rupiah and even the Chinese Yuan itself are, on the other hand, outperforming what you would expect if there were fears that a trade war is upon us.

Rand showing signs of weakness

The South African Rand has outperformed expectations given that trade war concerns are dominating the news flow. While South Africa might appear to be heavily isolated from the ongoing diplomatic tensions over trade between the US and China, the Rand would be at risk to weakness if the trade tensions between China and the United States intensify and investor attraction towards higher-risk assets takes a hit.

We have seen some weakness in the Rand over the Easter holiday, although the catalyst behind the fluctuation is likely to be last week’s comments from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) that the local currency is overvalued.

GBPUSD attempting 4 days of consecutive gains

The British Pound appears to be attempting its fourth day of gains against the US Dollar during early Wednesday trading, with the Sterling receiving support after the UK manufacturing survey for March exceeded expectations yesterday. As long as the GBPUSD maintains its ground above 1.40, there is potential for the Pound to trade higher this month. We have noticed in recent weeks that investors are potentially using the 1.40 level in the GBPUSD as a possible pivot level, before deciding what direction the Pound could trade next; therefore, I will continue to monitor the 1.40 level in this pair.

If the GBPUSD manages to slip back below 1.40, it would put the Cable at risk to concluding its current run of gains.

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What’s next? – USDJPY 06.04.18

The dollar was trading 0.08 percent lower vs the Japanese yen at 107.28 as of 06:35 GMT on Friday, with market players looking ahead to fresh data.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.02 percent lower at 90.14 by the time of this writing.

White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said Washington was hoping to reach an agreement with the Beijing.
“Our intention is not to punish anybody. Our intention is to open markets and investments and lower barriers — that’s the deal,” Kudlow said.

This posture is in strict contrast with White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro, who had previously stated “the expectation is that at the end of 60 days there will be tariffs imposed.”

Easing concerns over the trade dispute between the US and China reduces demand for safe-haven yen, opening the doors to further gains for the pair.

Also prospecting an upward extension is employment data. A strong labor market builds a case for the Federal Reserve to further adjust monetary policy and interest rates.

Ahead in today’s session, the trade dispute will remain in focus, but also attention will turn to a batch of fresh economic reports, including the latest employment figures in the US.

The Labor Department will present its employment report for March, which includes average hourly earnings, nonfarm payrolls, participation rate and the unemployment rate. Currently, economists estimate the following results: 0.2%; 203,000; 195,000 and 4.0% respectively.

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Forex Weekly Outlook April 9-13 - Can the dollar continue higher?

The US dollar extended its recovery in the new quarter, at least against the majors. Is this trend real? US inflation data and the FOMC meeting minutes stand out in the second week of April. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

The US gained only 103K jobs in March, fewer than expected. However, wage growth accelerated to 2.7%, in line with early projections. The greenback continued its recovery against its major peers, clawing back lost ground, regardless of the turbulence in stocks and the worsening tensions around trade. The only exception was the Canadian dollar, which enjoyed a strong gain in domestic jobs and also the rising chances for a deal on NAFTA.

Updates:

US PPI: Tuesday, 12:30. The Producer Price Index is often considered a leading indicator towards the more significant Consumer Price Index. Prices at factory gates perpetuate further. Headline PPI is expected to rise by 0.1% m/m in March, half the rate of February, while Core PPI is forecast to repeat the previous gain of 0.2%.
Mario Draghi talks Wednesday, 11:00. The President of the European Central Bank will appear in front of a student conference in Frankfurt and will also take questions from the crowd. He will have an opportunity to respond to the growing signs of a slowdown in the euro-zone economies, or at least the peak of the cycle, around December. Any comments about inflation will be interesting to watch.

US inflation: Wednesday, 12:30. Inflation remains the missing ingredient in the US growth story. Despite healthy gains in jobs and decent GDP growth, inflation remains stubbornly low. Core CPI remained stuck at 1.8% y/y in February with a monthly rise of 0.2%. This time, yet another 0.2% increase is expected in core CPI while headline prices are projected to remain unchanged in March.

FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. The Fed releases the minutes from the first meeting overseen by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While the FOMC raised rates and upgrade the outlook for 2019 and 2020, they did not upgrade the prospects for 2018. The meeting minutes may shed some light on the deliberations. Is the sentiment growing more hawkish and are they on the verge of a fourth hike? How worried are they on the ongoing jitters around global trade? We may get a notion of the mindset.

ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 11:30. These are minutes from the ECB’s meeting in March, where forecasts were hardly changed and Draghi made an effort to downplay the slightly more hawkish stance in the statement. The publication is over a month after the event, making it somewhat stale as we have received quite a few data points since then. However, the ongoing battle between the hawks and the doves about ending QE and a potential rate hike somewhere in 2019 rages on.

US Consumer Confidence: Friday, 14:00. The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence provides an outlook towards the retail sale sales. In March, the figure reached 101.4 points, higher than in previous months and above the round number of 100. A minor slide to 100.8 points is on the cards now.

JOLTS Job Openings: Friday, 14:00. This lagging indicator for the jobs market is watched closely by the Fed and is of importance after jumping to an annualized level of 6.31 million back in January. The data for February is projected to show a dip to 6.22 million. The number of quits is also of interest as it is a measure of confidence. More quits imply people are confident to move on, and often to better jobs.
 

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Xi Jinping provided equity bulls a much-needed boost

Appetite for risk bolstered Tuesday morning, as Chinese President Xi Jinping offered plans to further open up the second largest economy. Xi’s public speech at the Boao Forum came days after the U.S. and China exchanged tit-for-tat tariffs threats, which kept investors on edge for several weeks. He promised to lower import tariffs for autos, as well as on some other products, open up the financial and insurance sectors, and most importantly, to increase protection to intellectual property.

Xi’s speech calmed markets by responding to all of Donald Trump’s concerns, without even mentioning him. Now it’s time for China to provide specific figures and a timeline on how these reforms will be implemented. I think what was achieved today is likely to reduce trade tensions and buy some extra time. Whether the U.S. will wave back with an olive branch to China remains to be seen, but certainly, the probability of a full-blown trade war is now much lower than a week ago.

Asian equities were all in the green this morning with the Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 climbing more than 1%. Futures are also indicating a positive start to Europe and U.S. – the S&P 500 futures are up 1.3% at the time of writing.

However, the new geopolitical risks over the increased conflict in Syria cannot be ignored. This came after the U.S. imposed a wide range of financial sanctions on Russian assets, causing stocks to suffer their worst performance in four years and the ruble falling as much as 4.1%. Russia warned the U.S. that any military reprisal to Saturdays’ chemical attack in Syria could have “grave repercussions”. Will U.S. and Russia go into a confrontation in Syria? This likely depends on Trump’s decision over the next 24 hours, but the risks are high.

Although oil prices may have risen on hopes that trade tensions will ease, investors may start pricing in a much higher risk premium. So far, it seems the conflict in Syria has no impact on the supply from the Middle East, but if the battle spills outside the Syrian border, I expect another $10 risk premium to be added to the current price.

The economic calendar is light today, so expect currency traders to continue taking the cue from equity markets.
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CAD surges further on weaker USD

It was all downhill today for the USDCAD as the USD weakness continued to be a major factor. This comes as China looks to work together with the US in order to help deal with intellectual property rights and bring about the end of the trade war. However, it seems that the USD is currently not in favour with traders and they're pushing it lower every chance they get, and no more so than against the CAD which is currently one of the strongest currencies out there. One thing that is worrisome, and on the horizon, is of course the US CPI reading which if strong could potentially lead to a bounce in the USDCAD as it does show signs of being oversold at present. In the long run though the USDCAD does seem like it could potentially run away further on the back of the head and shoulders pattern which has given the bears so much more hunger as of late.

For the USDCAD bears the bottom is looking all the more possible and I am expecting to see some sort of push to support at 1.2548 on the chart. A bounce here not be a surprise as it's oversold at present and probably some traders will look to take profit. However, if we see sustained momentum and we have so far - with the 200 day moving average being swept aside - then I would expect further extensions to potentially 1.2406. In the event the bounce leads to a push back higher the neck line around 1.2807 is likely to be some hard work for the bulls to even crack through, as I would expect the vast majority of traders to defend this heavily.

Oil has been one of the surprise movers in recent times as it rebounded sharply up the charts recently. This should not come as a surprise as the USD has been weaker over the last few days. The question now remains can it sustain a push to resistance at 66.05, as the majority of traders believe that at present 60-70 is the current market range we should expect in the near future. Beyond this level is something we've not seen since 2014. I would anticipate that any moves higher may be met with some bearish resistance but it's hard to tell just yet as oil has not been above this level for some time.

On the charts in the long run momentum has always been bullish with a strong long term trend line. And the bulls today certainly showed they were keen to continue momentum with that push to resistance at 66.05. I would be surprised to see it breakthrough and I expect markets will look for a bounce here, especially if the USD does strengthen. If we do see that bounce then expect the bears to pull it back to 64.57, which will be the next level of support as the market falls. If we do however see a breakthrough then I would need to see a close above the resistance level to keep bullish momentum going.

Published on Wed, Apr 11 2018 Fxdailyinfo forex analysis.
 

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What’s next? – USDJPY 12.04.18

The dollar was trading 0.15 percent higher vs the Japanese yen at 106.94 as of 06:25 GMT on Thursday, as the dollar recovered moderately on the back of upbeat inflation data.

Yesterday, the core consumer price index showed a 2.1 percent year-on-year growth for March, its best performance since February 2017, compared to a prior month 1.8 percent.

The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.08 percent higher at 89.33 by the time of this writing.

Ahead in the day, the US export/import price index is up at 12:30 GMT. No other relevant reports are scheduled for today’s session. We believe attention will turn to political developments.

Overnight, the Trump administration warned Moscow about its position in the Syria conflict, suggesting serious military actions would be taken against Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

President Donald Trump tweeted: “Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!”

Earlier this week, the Republican leader told a group of reporters that “[the United States] have a lot of options, militarily. And we'll be letting you know pretty soon"

It seems investors’ focus is not shifting from US-China trade relations to US-Russia war relations. This matter could potentially be much more damaging than a trade war, therefore market players are likely to closely monitor the situation.

The pair is expected to run high on the back of higher geopolitical uncertainty. The USDJPY will be driven by fear and the Japanese yen will take the lead in that case.

Published on Wed, Apr 12 2018 Fxdailyinfo forex analysis.
 

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What’s next? – GOLD 13.04.18


Gold prices traded higher in Asian hours on Friday, with rising geopolitical tension over Syria offering support to the demand of safe-haven assets.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures were up 0.07 percent at $1.342.90 a troy ounce as of 06:20 GMT.

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump said military actions in Syria “could be very soon or not so soon at all”. His remarks boosted the dollar’s position and weighed on the metal.

The precious metal fell 1.3 percent in the previous session, the largest one-day drop since March 28. The dollar’s dynamic continues to play a key role for gold prices.


The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.08 percent higher at 89.33 by the time of this writing.

Dollar-denominated gold is very sensitive to moves in the American currency. A stronger dollar makes the yellow metal less attractive for investors holding foreign currencies.


Ahead in today’s session, traders will be paying attention to speeches by FOMC members Rosengren and Bullard as of 12:00 GMT and 13:00 GMT respectively.


On the data front, JOLTs job openings for February will be published at 14:00 GMT, along with Michigan Consumer Expectations and Sentiment indicators for April.

Published on Fri, Apr 13 2018 Fxdailyinfo forex analysis.
 
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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (April 16 - 20, 2018)
EURUSD

Irrespective of the bullish attempt that was witnessed last week, the outlook on EURUSD remains neutral. The neutrality has been ongoing for over 2 months, and the bullish attempt that happened last week pales into insignificance when compared to the overall outlook on the market. Price currently oscillates between the support line at 1.2200 and the resistance line at 1.2400. There is a going to be a directional bias once that support line or that resistance line is breached. However, a breach of the support line at 1.2200 is much more likely.



USDCHF

There is some form of bullishness in this market. Since the support level at 0.9200 was breached on February 16, price has moved upwards by 440 pips, closing above the support level at 0.9600 on Friday. This week is supposed to be bullish, because USD will likely gain some stamina against certain currencies like EUR, CHF, AUD and NZD (with the exception of GBP). The first object of attack this week is the resistance level at 0.9650.



GBPUSD

The market gained 220 pips last week, almost reaching the distribution territory at 1.4300, and getting corrected lower, to close below the distribution territory at 1.4250. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and price is supposed to go seriously upwards again, breaching the distribution territories at 1.4250, 1.4300 and 1.4350 to the upside. Short trades are not yet recommended.



USDJPY

The trading instrument is bearish in the long-term, and bullish in the short-term. There is a weak short-term bullishness owing to the fact that price made some effort to go upwards last week, gaining only 80 pips. Price managed to briefly breach the supply level at 107.50, but it could not close above it on Friday (it closed below it). However, price would be able to go above the supply level at 107.50; even reaching other supply levels at 108.50, 109.00 and 109.50.



EURJPY

This cross is bearish in the long-term, and now bullish in the short-term. It has gained roughly 250 pips this month, and it can gain another 250 pips before the end of the month. That is something that can bring about a long-term bullish outlook on the market as it goes through the supply zones at 133.00, 133.50 and 134.00, even exceeding those supply zones as price goes further and further northwards.



GBPJPY

There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The market gained roughly 500 pips in March and it has gained over 400 pips this month, closing above the demand zone at 152.50 on Friday. The outlook on GBP/JPY and most other JPY pairs, remains bullish for this week. The price is expected to reach the supply zones at 153.00, 153.50 and 154.00: the targets that could even be exceeded.


This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


“The markets never reward desperation. They only reward clear thinking, discipline and courage.” – Louise Bedford,

Published on Sat, Apr 14 2018 Fxdailyinfo [edited] forex analysis.
 
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 16 - 20, 2018

For starters, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which turned out to be absolutely true for many major and cryptocurrency pairs:

- EUR/USD. According to the graphical analysis, the pair was supposed to consolidate in the Pivot Point zone of the medium-term side channel in 2018. The level of 1.2215 was indicated as the lower limit, the upper one was 1.2355. At the same time, 35% of analysts suggested that the US dollar will continue to weaken, provoked by data on the labor market, and the pair would be able to break through 1.2355, rising above this level.
It was this scenario that was implemented. The pair climbed 115 points by the middle of the week, reaching the height of 1.2395, after which it turned and returned to where it had been expected - to the medium-term Pivot Point in the zone of 1.2328;

- The forecast for the pair GBP/USD had supposed a certain growth, but not the one that really happened. Recall that the growth above the horizon 1.4200 was supported by only a quarter of analysts, but the dollar weakening surpassed even their expectations, and the pair almost reached the level of 1.4300 on Friday. However, the strength of the bulls dried up soon, and it rolled back to the level of 1.4240;

- The forecast made by most experts on the pair USD/JPY, suggested continuation of the medium-term lateral trend, which began in mid-February, and its growth to a height of 108.00. That's exactly what happened. The pair moved within the corridor 106.60-107.40 for the whole week, after which it tried to move one level above, but, having reached the height of 107.77, could not get fixed there and returned to the highs of the previous week;

- The forecast for cryptocurrencies turned out to be absolutely correct as well. All major crypto-pairs went up as expected.
The script for the BTC/USD provided for an increase to 7,820-8,360. In fact, the pair reached the mark of 8,200.
For the ethereum, the target was the zone 440-511, it managed to climb even slightly higher - to the height of 527, after which, it returned to the 490 mark by the end of the week.

For the LTC/USD, the scenario envisaged a rise to 155-175, however, even though the pair went up confidently, the bulls' enthusiasm dried up a little earlier - at the height of 133.

And, finally, ripple. The experts set a height of 0.67 as the main target for it, to where it got on Friday evening.
***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. 60% of experts, together with graphical analysis on D1, continue to insist on the pair going down first to the level of 1.2215, and then, possibly, to the minimum of the medium-term side corridor at the horizon 1.2155. However, the geopolitical situation in which Syria is involved, as well as the trade war with China, and a number of other factors, can make influence the situation and lead to a further weakening of the dollar. In this case, as 40% of analysts believe as well as most of the oscillators on D1, the pair can continue to move to the resistance levels at the top of the channel, these are 1.2410, 1.2475 and 1.2525;

- Almost all the indicators, both trend ones and oscillators, both on H4 and D1 (85%) are determined to buy the GBP/USD. But as for the experts, here the bulls' advantage is not so impressive: 60% by 40%. The main support is located at 1.4145, then 1.4065 and 1.4010. The resistance levels are 1.4345 and 1.4425.

It should be noted that in the medium term, the advantage is shifted to the bears, and here 60% of analysts vote not for growth, but for the fall of the pair, expecting its fall to the March lows around 1.3760;

- USD/JPY. Almost all indicators are painted green following the trends of the last days and weeks. However, we should pay attention to the fact that the pair is at the upper boundary of the strong resistance zone, which can be traced starting from this February. More than 70% of experts believe that the pair will try to gain a foothold above this zone, and its weekly fluctuations will occur in the range of 107.00-108.50. However, one third of analysts are sure that the pair will return to the side corridor 106.65-107.00, and, if it breaks its lower border, it may drop another 100 points lower, reaching the local bottom at 105.65. This development is also confirmed by the graphical analysis on D1;

- As for cryptocurrencies, experts expect this week that the pair BTC/USD will move along the level of 8,000, making fluctuations in the range of 7,570-8,575. ETH/USD may try to conquer the height of 600, but the ethereum will not be able to get fixed there and it will return to the levels around 485-510. For the pair LTC/USD, experts point to the height of 145 as the target, and to the zone 0.70-0.740 for the pair XRP/USD.

Published on Sun, Apr 15 2018 Fxdailyinfo forex analysis.
 

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What’s next? – GOLD 16.04.18
GOLDpng_8444963_29957972.jpg

Gold prices traded higher in Asian hours on Monday, with market players weighing geopolitical concerns while keeping an eye on upcoming economic reports scheduled later this week.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures were up 0.07 percent at $1.348.90 a troy ounce as of 06:50 GMT.

Last week, the yellow metal settled in green territory at $1,347.80 per ounce, about 0.44 percent higher. For the week, gold prices added 0.88 percent.
There were three factors supporting the metal in the last few sessions: prospects of a trade war between the US and China, rising international tensions over Syria, and the dollar’s dynamic.

President Xi Jinping said in the previous week that China is willing to take active measures to open its economy, allowing more foreign investments and importation. While this position reinforced the idea of a diplomatic solution, the US hasn’t responded in the same terms so far.

Meanwhile, attention progressively moved to Syria, where three military stations were destroyed by a US-led coalition airstrike launched on Friday. Forces from France, Britain and the US targeted key military infrastructure of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

President Donald Trump gave green light to a military intervention following Syria’s deployment of chemical weapons on April 7 in Douma. That attack killed nearly 40 people.


The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.03 percent lower at 89.48 by the time of this writing.

Dollar-denominated gold is very sensitive to moves in the American currency. A stronger dollar makes the yellow metal less attractive for investors holding foreign currencies.

Capping gains for the metal were minutes of the Fed’s March monetary policy encounter, which reinstated the possibility of another two interest rate hikes later this year. According to policymakers, the economy will reach its 2 percent target pretty soon.

Ahead in today’s session, retail sales for March will be out as of 12:30 GMT, along with the NY Empire State manufacturing index for April. Business inventories are due at 14:00 GMT.


Investors will also be monitoring a series of speeches by FOMC representatives, including Kaplan and Kashkari at 16:00 GMT and Bostic as of 17:15 GMT.

Published on Mon, Apr 16 2018 Fxdailyinfo forex analysis.
 

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Ethereum Price Analysis – May 31

ETHUSD Medium-term Trend: Bullish

Resistance: $585, $580, $575

Support: $555, $560, $565

Yesterday, 30 May, the ETHUSD pair was in a bullish market. Ethereum had established itself above the $550 price level. Meanwhile, the MACD line and the signal line were above the zero line, indicating a buy signal. Also, the price was above the 12-day and 26-day EMA indicating that the bullish trend was ongoing. Ethereum is currently trading at $569.10 at the time of writing.

Nevertheless, today, the Ethereum price is sustained above $550. The asset price is fluctuating between $550 and $600 since 29 May. Meanwhile, the MACD line and the signal line are above the zero line, indicating a buy signal. The Ethereum price is above the 12-day and the 26-day EMA, indicating that the bullish trend is ongoing.

However, since the asset price has been sustained above the $550, traders should initiate long orders above that level.

ETHUSD Short-term trend: Bullish

The daily chart shows that Ethereum is in a bullish market although the MACD line and the signal line are below the zero line, indicating a sell signal. The asset may reach $600 if the resistance level at $570 is broken.

Published on Fri, May 31, 2018, Fxdailyinfo forex analysis.
 

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Two days of the week will be most important for market and for gold in particular

Over the past two days, the precious metal has been able to gain significantly, moving away from the minimum values since mid-December 2017, but the problem for gold is that the correction was more technical in nature and was not due to fundamental reasons. First, the yellow metal was heavily oversold, which significantly hampered the further advance of the price downwards.

Secondly, on Tuesday it was an earlier market close and on Wednesday there was a day off in US, this provoked some profit taking and positions to close.

However, all the fundamental factors that previously contributed to a gold decline retain their influence on the market limiting the opportunities for price recovery. One of the main negative driver for gold remains the some- Fed policy, which led to the strengthening of the dollar to the maximum levels since July 2017. Two remaining days of the current trading week are of special importance for gold, as today and tomorrow there will appear strong factors on the market that can change the attitude of traders and raise volatility.

Today US will report on the labor market from ADP, these data largely form investors expectations on the official report of the US Department of Labor, which will be released one day later. There is a general expectation of number increase of employed from 178K to 190K, which is likely to support the dollar and, accordingly, weaken the position of gold.

Secondly, US non-manufacturing PMI will go published. Here, on the contrary, an insignificant decrease is expected from 58.6 to 58.3 points, but, like PMI in the manufacturing sector published on Monday, there can be unpleasant (for gold) surprises.
 

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NEO Technical Analysis - Tests Support on Consolidation

NEO saw Wednesday’s late reversal continue into the early hours of this morning, with the broader market seeing red as investors lock in profits. Support levels will play a hand in today’s moves.
Key Highlights
  • NEO fell by 4.53% on Wednesday, partially reversing Tuesday’s 6.74% gain, to end the day at $37.55.
  • A late in the day move through to an intraday high $40.81 left the day’s first major resistance level at $41.14 untested before a broadly based market reversal kicked in.
  • NEO pulled back through to sub-$40 levels to test the first major support level at $36.6 with an intraday low $36.66 before recovering to $37 levels.
  • The extended bearish trend remained intact, with NEO continuing to fall short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $43.
How to Buy NEO

NEO Price Support
NEO fell by 4.53% on Wednesday, partially reversing Tuesday’s 6.74% gain, to end the day at $37.55, with the day’s losses bringing to an end the upward momentum that kicked in at the end of the weekend.
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A relatively range bound morning saw NEO’s morning high $40.12 and low $38.53 steer clear of the day’s first major resistance level at $41.1 and first major support level at $36.6, as NEO and the broader market looked to consolidate gains from the first part of the week.

The range bound moves through to the late afternoon ultimately led to a reversal late in the day, with a move through to an intraday high $40.81 also falling short of the first major resistance level at $41.1 before sliding to test the day’s first major support level at $36.6 with an intraday low $36.66.

With NEO continuing to fall short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $43 and failing to end the day at $40 levels, the extended bearish trend, formed at 30th April’s swing hi $94.65 remained intact, in spite of the gains through the week.

At the time of writing, NEO was down 2% to $36.76, as Wednesday’s late sell-off continued into the early hours of this morning, NEO falling from a start of the day $37.6 high to a morning low $36.21 before steadying.

Moves through the day left the day’s major support and resistance levels untested, with NEO seeing any hopes of a break through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $43 weaken over the near-term.

For the day ahead, a move through $38.34 would support a run at the day’s first major resistance level at $40, though sentiment across the broader market will need to significantly improve for NEO to break through $40 to take a run at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $43 and begin forming a bearish trend reversal.

Failure to recover from the morning’s losses and move through to $38 levels will likely see NEO pullback to $35 levels to test the day’s first major support level at $35.87 before any recovery, a range bound middle part of the day likely to spell more trouble for NEO, with investors unlikely to hold on to positions in fear of another sell-off.