Forex-Metal Daily Analysis -27/09/2012


Master Trader
Jul 12, 2010
Market review for 26.09.12: The safe haven assets, the Dollar and the Yen strengthened today.
Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro: The EUR / USD pair decreased to the $1.2855 level by the end of European session. The euro fell against all its rivals on the background of the negative impact which came after the publication of results of economic performances of Euro zone as well as on increased political instability in the EU. The volume of retail sales in Italy fell in July by 0.2 % in monthly term and 3.2% vs. -0.8 % forecasted in yearly term. The French consumer confidence index also recorded a decline in September falling to 85 vs. 86 forecasted and result of 87 in August. The auction for German 10-year bonds which was held today was able to sell only for the amount of € 3.19 billion instead of planned € 5 billion and the yield of securities increased from 1.42 % to 1.52 %. Moreover, Spanish provinces continued to require financial assistance from the government in Madrid. The situation in Spain could lead to the need of providing more international aid to Spain, and early elections.

U.S. Dollar: The dollar was supported by demand for safe assets which increased at the begging of the week. The dollar index touched the important area of 80.04 today.

British Pound: The Pound tried to fight today against the dollar. The GBP / USD pair showed an increase against the U.S. dollar after the report on Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Reported Sales in Britain showed a positive result. Thus, the balance amounted to 6, which was more compare with analysts' forecasts of 5 and previous of 3. The GBP / USD almost retested the highs of the Asian session, the level of $ 1.6201at the European session.

Japanese Yen: The yen traded higher against the U.S. dollar along with falling of the weak Asian and European stock markets. The USD / JPY pair set a new daily low today at Y77.58 however dropped than to Y77.71levels.

New Zealand dollar: The New Zealand's currency got under pressure after the publication of negative data on the deficit of the trade balance of the country. In details, the source reported on the growth of the trade deficit to 789 million of Nz$. The result exceeded the forecasted deficit of 630 million Nz$ and recorded a big jumped compare with results of July, where were even a surplus of 97 Nz $ million.

American trading session:

Australian dollar The Australian dollar fell against almost all major currencies on concerns that political conflict in Spain and strikes in Greece would obstruct attempts to resolve the debt crisis in Europe. Moreover, the drop of prices of commodities and undermined demand for risky assets put pressure on currency’s trading dynamics today.

Gold: The Gold prices could not held longer the established range of $1,752 -$1,786 and fell today more than 1% on the strengthened dollar and fall of stock and commodities markets prices, combined with profit-taking before the end of the quarter. October futures price of gold closed at $1,751.70 per troy ounce on the COMEX.

Oil: Despite the drop in oil prices today, the asset was supported by rising tensions on situation with Iran and the rumors of a possible reduction in the supply of key seller of oil to Asia. The October WTI futures were able to recover from $88.96 level to $ 90.17 per barrel on the NYMEX.

Technical analysis for 27.09
The pair has declined to 1.28630. The pair is aiming to the Moving Average (200) at 1.27900.
Resistance: 1.30277, 1.31674, 1.33143
Support: 1.28630, 1.26897, 1.25690
The pair stays below 1.62050 and aiming to 1.60322.
Resistance: 1.62050, 1.63316, 1.64636
Support: 1.60322, 1.58543, 1.56722
The pair has risen to 0.93949. If the pair stays above this level the pair will rise to the Moving Average (100) at 0.95074. If the pair stays below 0.93949 the pair will decline to 0.93069.
Resistance: 0.93949, 0.95047, 0.96220
Support: 0.93069, 0.92026, 0.91079
The pair is aiming to 77.539.
Resistance: 78.345, 79.070, 79.707
Support: 77.539, 76.463, 75.425
The pair is staying above 1.03535 and aiming to 1.04407.
Resistance: 1.04407, 1.05332, 1.06164
Support: 1.03535, 1.02558, 1.01744