Forex binary betting rise/fall

daya1

Trader
Nov 5, 2011
1
0
12
The bet is on rise/fall of a forex index. How would a bookmaker decide the odds for these two events.

I can understand that the price of the options can be determined using Black Sholes formula but I think the odds for rise/fall should be complimentary to each other but that isn't the case.

Any pointers are much appreciated.