Forex analysis by Followme socialtrading

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
#analysis #forex #followme #socialtrading
The #GBPUSD pair pullback to 1.2240 while heading into the London open on Thursday. Now it is trading at 1.2217.
#GBP recently surged as the UK lawmakers voted to avoid #NoDeal #Brexit and also turning the down the #PM #BorisJohnson’s proposed snap general election. The members of the parliaments (MPs) debated various bills concerning no-deal Brexit and early elections at the House of Commons. These bills will now reach the upper house i.e. the House of Lords for further discussions/amendments, scheduled for Thursday, and return back to the lower chamber prior to getting the Royal Assent. As per the Labour sources cited by The Press Association, the UK government's legislation to stop a no-deal Brexit will be completed by Friday.
With the risk tone remains positive with nearly four basis points (bps) of gains to 1.51% mark of the US 10-year Treasury yield by the press time.
Trade headlines will be the key to determine near-term trade direction of the #GBPUSD pair while August month’s ADP Employment Change, #ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (#PMI) and Factory Orders for July from the #US will decorate the economic calendar.

#Technical Analysis
Traders now watch over 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 1.2155 and 1.2100 round-figure during additional pullback whereas 1.2308/10 area including August month high and 50-day SMA and early-July low surrounding 1.2382 could please buyers if prices clear recent high of 1.2261.
 

Attachments

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
#analysis #forex #followme #socialtrading

#GBPUSD pair stays firm around 1.2320 after witnessing three consecutive positive daily closings ahead of Friday’s UK session open, due to the receding chances of no-deal Brexit.


The United Kingdom’s (UK) House of Lords is still debating on various Brexit issues to roll them out by Friday evening, to return them to House of Commons that could pass them for Royal Assent. While no significant change is expected in that front, the British Pound (GBP) traders are more inclined to hear from judicial reviews and pleas against the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s prorogation to the parliaments.


While the UK’s economic calendar is mostly silent, the #US will offer August month employment data for fresh impulse. Market consensus favors no change in the #UnemploymentRate of 3.7% whereas Average Hourly Earnings might step back from 3.2% to 3.1% on YoY while likely being unchanged to 0.3% on MoM. The headline Nonfarm Payrolls (#NFP) could weaken to 158K from 164K prior.


Additionally, the US #FederalReserve Chairman is scheduled to speak at an event hosted by the Swiss Institute of International Studies, in Zurich, and hence his comments will be closely observed ahead of the blackout period for the Fed policymakers.


#TechnicalAnalysis

Sustained break of the 50-day simple moving average (DMA) requires to be validated by a run-up crossing July 17 low of 1.2382 for further advances, failing to which can recall 1.2200 back to the chart.
 

Attachments

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
#WeekAhead #forex #news #followme #socialtrading
Here are the data highlights for this week:
(GMT+8)

Monday:
14:00 German trade figures and Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index
16:00 UK BoE's Vlieghe speech
16:30 UK GDP, manufacturing production and construction output (all monthly figures)

Tuesday:
09:30 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
16:30 UK average earnings index
16:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Jul)

Wednesday:
08:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (Sep)
20:30 US core PPI

Thursday:
Chinese trade figures
14:00 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Aug)
19:45 Europe ECB rate decision and press conference
20:30 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference
20:30 US CPI

Friday
20:30 US retail sales
22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Sep)

#ECB unlikely to re-launch #QE
In this week, the main significant event is Mario Draghi’s last policy meeting as the #ECB President. There have been some suggestions that the #Italian will go out with a bang and announce more quantitative #easing to stimulate the flagging #Eurozone #economy - not least Germany, where incoming data has been truly shocking.
However, with #InterestRates already at zero and having only recently ended their #QE programme, some would argue that the best course of action would be to take no action at all, even if — as Mr Draghi put it in July — the economic outlook is “getting worse and worse.” Indeed, there could be an element of hawkish surprise at this meeting. Several ECB officials have spoken against QE, including Jens Weidmann, Klaas Knot, and Madis Muller in recent days. With this much opposition, Mario Draghi will probably not want to create a mess for his successor to clean up.


US #Inflation before #Fed meeting
With the latest employment figures disappointing expectations following a very poor manufacturing #PMI earlier in the week, this has further cemented speculation over a rate cut by the Fed later this month. Ahead of the September 18 meeting, we will have two more key data releases this week which the Fed might take into account when deciding on interest rates: Consumer Price Index (#CPI) (Thursday) and #RetailSales (Friday).
Unless #CPI is shockingly weak, it is safe to assume the #Fed will only #Cut #Rates by 25 basis points rather than 50. The retail sales may change that view either. Still, it could trigger some movement in the forex and stock markets. After a strong 0.7% m/m increase in spending last month, traders will be watching for any signs of a #slowdown, especially after last month’s tariff escalations.
 

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
09.11 #analysisi #forex #socialtrading

The #EURUSD has been fluctuating between two converging trend-lines over the past one week or so, forming a symmetrical triangle on hourly charts. Wednesday's early uptick quickly ran out of the steam, rather met with some fresh supply near the triangle resistance.


The #intraday #pullback has now dragged the pair back below 100-hour SMA, the intraday bias might have shifted in favor of bearish traders and sets the stage for a move towards testing the triangle support, currently near the 1.1020 region, which is followed by 200-hour EMA.


Due to drifting into the bearish territory on the 1-hourly chart, failure to defend the mentioned support levels might indicate the resumption of the prior/well-established bearish trend.


The pair might then turn vulnerable to slide back towards challenging multi-year swing lows, around the 1.0925 area, before eventually sliding farther below the 1.0900 round figure mark towards testing its next major support near the 1.0835-30 region - levels now seen since May 2017.


On the other hand, the 1.1050 region might continue to attract some fresh #supply, which if cleared decisively should negate any near-term bearish bias and prompt some aggressive short-covering move and assist the pair to surpass last week's swing high resistance near the 1.1085 level.


 

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
0912 #analysis #EURUSD #forex #socialtrading
#EURUSD pair came under some renewed selling pressure on Wednesday and tumbled back below the key 1.10 psychological mark, albeit managed to recover around 25-pips from daily lows. The shared currency took a sharp knock in reaction to the German growth downgrade by the #Kiel #Institute for the World Economy, now expected to contract by -0.3% in Q3 following -0.1% in the previous quarter and meeting the criteria of a ‘technical recession’.

#USD remained well supported by a strong follow-through pickup in the US Treasury bond yields amid growing optimism over the resumption of the #USChina trade talks. On the economic data front, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for August bettered market expectations and remained supportive of the bid tone surrounding the greenback. The headline PPI came in to show a rise of 0.1% during the reported month while the core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices rose 0.3%.

#TradeTensions between the world's two largest economies eased further on Wednesday after the US President #Trump said that he will delay a planned tariff hike on Chinese goods by two weeks as a gesture of goodwill after Beijing exempted a range of American goods from its own tariffs. The market reaction, however, turned out to be rather muted, as investors seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets ahead of Thursday's key event risk - the highly anticipated #ECB monetary policy decision.

The #ECB is widely expected to #lower #InterestRates further into the negative territory and also announce a new #QEprogram, though opinions on the stimulus package are divided and thus, increases the relevance of Thursday's rate decision. This will be followed by the post-meeting press conference, where comments by the ECB President Mario Draghi will further collaborate towards infusing volatility around the EUR crosses. From the US, the release of consumer inflation figures for the month of August might influence the USD price dynamics but seems more likely to be overshadowed by the post-ECB volatility.


Short-term #TechnicalAnalysis
From a technical perspective, the #EURUSD on Wednesday broke through a symmetrical triangle formation on hourly charts and confirmed a fresh bearish breakdown. However, the fact that the pair managed to defend the 1.10 handle on a closing basis warrant some caution before placing any aggressive bearish bets. The pair now seems to have stabilized around 200-hour SMA, just below the triangle support breakpoint near the 1.1025 region. Any subsequent up-move now seems to confront fresh supply near mid-1.1000s, resistance marked by 38.2% Fibo. level of the 1.1251-1.0926 downfall, above which a bout of short-covering now seems to assist the pair to surpass the recent swing higher - around the 1.1070-80 region - and test 61.8% Fibo. level resistance near the 1.1125-30 area en-route the next major hurdle near the 1.1175-80 region (100-day SMA).

On the flip side, sustained weakness below the 1.10 handle, leading to a subsequent slide through the overnight swing lows - around the 1.0985, might now turn the pair to fall back towards the multi-year swing lows - around the 1.0925 area before eventually dropping farther below the 1.0900 round figure mark towards testing its next major support near the 1.0835-30 region.
 

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
#WeekAhead #forex #news #followme #socialtrading

Hey friends! Happy new week.

Here are the data highlights for this week:

(GMT+8)

Monday:

10:00 Chinese industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales



Tuesday:

09:30 RBA Meeting Minutes

17:00 German ZEW economic sentiment and

21:15 US industrial production


Wednesday

16:30 UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)

20:30 Canada BoC CPI


Thursday:

02:00 US FOMC Economic Projections

02:00 US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement REPORT

02:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision

02:30 US FOMC Press Conference SPEECH

06:45 AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)

09:30 AUD Employment Change s.a. (Aug)

09:30 AUD Unemployment Rate s.a. (Aug)

10:00 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision

10:00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement REPORT

14:00 JPY BoJ Press Conference SPEECH

19:00 UK BoE Asset Purchase Facility

19:00 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision

19:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Hike

19:00 UK Bank of England Minutes REPORT

19:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Cut

19:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Unchanged


Friday:

20:30 Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)


#FederalReserve is expected to cut rate about 25-basis point. It would be a major shock if the Fed doesn’t deliver. But some, including Donald Trump, want more than just 25 basis points. In fact, the US President has called for “boneheads” Fed to cut rates to zero or lower in a tweet this week. Understandably, with US data not deteriorating as badly as, say, Germany, the Fed is reluctant to cut aggressively and rightly so. The risk therefore is that the Fed refuses to provide a dovish outlook for interest rates. In this potential scenario, a rate cut might only weigh on the dollar momentarily. With most other major central banks already being or turning dovish, the Fed will also need to be super dovish for the dollar to end its bullish trend. Otherwise, the greenback may find renewed bullish momentum, even if the Fed cuts by 25 basis points.



The #Swiss National Bank will have to say about the #ECB’s decision to resume bond buying, given the recent appreciation of the franc against the shared currency. The #BoJ is unlikely to respond to the #ECB’s resumption of bond buying. It may keep the current policy of controlling the yield curve. For one, the global economy hasn’t deteriorated too significantly to exacerbate deflationary pressures in the export-oriented Japanese economy. For another, the there’s only limited number of policy options left at the BoJ's disposal. Thus, cutting short-term interest rates further into the negative may be an option, but to be used on another occasion.


 

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
#analysis #forex #followme #socialtrading
The #GBPUSD is trading at 1.2410 due to no positive Brexit developments and an on-going Parliament deadlock at the UK.

The #UK #PM Boris Johnson’s Luxembourg visit failed to provide any key updates. The EU President criticized the Tory leaders’ depth of details while British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab reiterated the PM”s pledge to leave on October 31 and also passing the bucket of criticism back to the EU.

The #USD stays on the front foot as the recent rise in #safe-haven demand, mainly due to the attacks of Saudi Arabia, joins hands with optimism surrounding the US-China trade talks, up for early October.

While the absence of data, except the US Industrial Production for August, is likely in support of carrying the previous move forward, any positive to the UK PM during the first day of hearings at the UK’s Supreme court could help the Cable recover some of its latest losses.

#TechnicalAnalysis
Unless providing a daily closing beyond 100-day simple moving average (DMA) level near 1.2510, the quote is less likely to rise towards mid-July highs surrounding 1.2580, which in turn highlights the importance of 1.2380 and 50-DMA level of 1.2280 during further declines.
 

Attachments

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
#EURUSD #ANALYSIS #Forex #followme #socialtrading

The EUR/USD pair fails to hold on to recovery gains as it trades near 1.1070 ahead of the European session on Wednesday.


The US #IndustrialProduction and #CapacityUtilization failed to please the #USD buyers as better than forecast prints of the ZEW Economic Sentiment for Germany and the Eurozone gained major attention. Also adding to the pair’s strength was the market’s risk recovery after Saudi Arabian diplomats showed readiness to overcome the recent damages due to drone attack within few weeks. Furthermore, news of the New York #Fed injecting funds through repo market and trade-positive headlines concerning the US, China and Japan also tamed the earlier #risk-off momentum.


#Traders have been #cautious since the start of Wednesday with eyes on the US #FederalReserve’s monetary policy meeting announcements up from 18:00 GMT. However, fresh trade/political headlines help extend the latest risk-on. As a result, Asian stocks report gains and the US 10-year Treasury yield remain around 1.80% by the press time.


Considering the high probability of the US Federal Reserve’s 0.25% Fed #rate, investors will be less surprised unless the US central bank offers less/more or no rate change. As a result, details of the quarterly economic forecast, press conference by the Fed Chairman #Powell and Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement will be the key to predict near-term market moves. The European Central Bank (#ECB) has recently shown its dovish bias and hence any hawkish statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (#FOMC) could be harmful to the pair’s latest recovery.


On the economic calendar, final reading of August month Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Eurozone and the US housing market numbers could offer intermediate moves ahead of the Fed decision.


#TechnicalAnalysis

Not only a falling trend-line since late-June, at 1.1090, but the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) level of 1.1167 also could restrict pair’s near-term upside, which in-turn highlights 1.1100 and recent low surrounding 1.0925 as key supports.
 

Attachments

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
#WeekAhead #forex #news #followme #socialtrading

Hey friends! Happy new week.

Here are the data highlights for this week:

(GMT+8)

Monday:

15:30 German Markit PMI Composite (Sep)

15:30 German Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

16:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite (Sep)

21:50 US Fed's Williams speech


Tuesday:

13:35 BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech

16:00 German Ifo Business Climate and US Consumer Confidence (CB)

17:55 RBA's Governor Lowe speech


Wednesday:

07:50 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

10:00 RBNZ Rate Statement REPORT

10:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision



Thursday:

20:30 US Final GDP


Friday:

07:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) (Sep)

20:30 US Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (Aug)

20:30 US Core PCE Price Index; Core Durable Goods Orders, and Personal Spending and Income



Among next week’s data highlights, traders should watch closely: (1) Eurozone flash services and manufacturing PMIs, (2) RBNZ rate decisions and (3) US macro data released throughout the week.



Eurozone PMIs in focus

The #ECB restarted #QE and cut #InterestRates last week because of the Eurozone economy. The latest PMIs provide a leading indication of economic health. Businesses and their purchasing managers tend to react quickly to changing market conditions. If the PMIs – especially in the manufacturing sector – continue to paint a bleak picture, then the single currency could come under renewed pressure in early next week. The #EURUSD bulls huffed and puffed this week, but macro concerns kept a lid on the exchange rate. With the Fed turning out to be less dovish than expected, the path of least resistance remains to the downside for this popular exchange rate.


#RBNZ likely to hold rates steady after the surprise 0.5% cut

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to hold interest rates unchanged at the historically-low rate of 1.0% after delivering a shock 50 basis point cut when a 25bp cut was expected in the previous meeting in August. In total, rates have been trimmed by the RBNZ by 75 basis points since May. Going forward, the rate setters at the central bank will likely sit on theirs hands and monitor the ongoing trade situation between the US and China. However, if the RBNZ makes any hints of forthcoming rate cuts then the NZD/USD could drop further lower after it hit a new 2019 low below the old low of 0.6270 on Friday to drop to 0.6255 at the time of this writing.


US-China Trade and #Brexit back to forefront

Deputy trade negotiators from the US and China resumed talks for the first time in almost two months this week. Their aim is to lay the groundwork for high-level talks in early October. Will they finally bridge their differences and find a way out of the trade war? As the high levels talks near, expect more tweets and tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, which could highs some risk-sensitive markets. However, for the time being, stock markets remain supported with US equity indices near record levels after a week of central bank bonanza, where the #message was loud and clear: global #InterestRates will remain at or near record #lows for the foreseeable future.


Meanwhile, hopes over an imminent Brexit breakthrough rose earlier this week and the GBP/USD shot above the 1.25 handle to trade 20 pips shy of 1.26 by early Friday session. However, it then sold off sharply after the Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney dashed those hopes by saying: “I think we need to be honest with people and say that we’re not close to that deal right now. But there is an intent I think by all sides to try and find a landing zone that everybody can live with here."


Followme, more than trade.
 

Attachments

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
#forex #followme #socialtrading
#AUDUSD has dropped into the red, having faced rejection at the 50-hour moving average line and could suffer a deeper drop if the Reserve Bank of Australia's (#RBA) governor Lowe reinforces the market expectation of a 25 basis point #RateCut on Oct. 1.

The currency pair is currently trading at session lows near 0.6765, representing 0.10% losses on the day. The pair had picked up a bid in the early Asian trading hours on comments by the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, confirming the Chinese Vice Premier’s trade visit to the US in the next week

The upside, however, was capped by the 50-hour moving average near 0.6779. Therefore, a break above that average is needed invite stronger buying pressure and yield a notable bounce.

That, however, may not happen or could be short-lived if RBA's Lowe talks dovish. The central bank chief is scheduled to speak at 09:55 GMT.

Expectations for the RBA to cut the official interest rate to 75% on Oct. 1 surged following last week's worse than expected unemployment rate.

The ASX 30 day cash rates futures contracts are currently indicating a more than 70% chance of an RBA rate cut next week.

The AUD will likely rise well above the 50-hour MA if RBA's Lowe pushes back on expectations of an October rate cut. The currency pair, however, could drop below 0.67 if Lowe talks dovish, further boosting the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut on Oct. 1.
 

Attachments

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
#WeekAhead #forex #followme #socialtrading

Hey friends, this is the last day of September and the new day of this week.

Here is the highlight of this week forex news:

(GMT+8)


Monday:

09:45 Chinese manufacturing PMI

16:30 UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)

20:00 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Sep)


Tuesday:

12:30 RBA meeting

22:00 US Manufacturing PMI



Wednesday:

20:15 US ADP Employment report


Thursday:

22:00 US Non-Manufacturing PMI


Friday:

20:30 Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Sep)

20:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)



In this week, the economic calendar is full of market-moving data and the Reserve Bank of Australia looks set to #CutRates one more time on Tuesday. For another, Q3 is officially ending on Monday, meaning there will be some portfolio rebalancing and window dressing operations from portfolio managers to provide extra volatility. All this is happening at a time when #Brexit talks are entering a crucial stage, while the #US-China trade talks are set to resume in early October.



With regards to Brexit, reports on Friday suggested that the EU believes negotiations have stalled and that the possibility of reaching an agreement in October is very limited. So, everything is up in the air and a lot could happen. So, volatility should remain elevated, which should be good news for traders.


By the time we get to Friday’s #NonfarmPayrolls report, a lot could have happened. But those employment figures will likely be the week’s main scheduled event. With jobs growth slowing over the past few months, another disappointing showing could increase bets on further rate cuts from the Fed and, in turn, derail the dollar’s rally. Or will there be a surprise pick-up in wage growth? If that’s the case, the USD could remain supported for a while yet.


Ahead of Friday’s US jobs report, we will have had the latest manufacturing PMIs from both China and the US. After a shocking German PMI this week, growth concerns could really come to the forefront should manufacturers at the world’s largest economies also paint a bleak picture. So, commodity dollars could be in for a wild ride.
 

Attachments

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
#forex #EURUSD #analysis #socialtrading
#EURUSD appears to have met a strong resistance in the mid-1.0900s for the time being amidst a recovery attempt in the Greenback.


The pair is exchanging gains with losses around the 1.0940/50 region in the European morning, looking to extend the positive streak for yet another session after YTD lows near 1.0880 on Tuesday.

Broad-based fears of a recession in the US economy in the next couple of years continue to fuel the selling pressure around the Dollar and the downtrend in US yields, all collaborating further with the corrective upside in spot.


The pair keeps the weekly recovery well and sound so far today, retaking levels well above the 1.09 barrier on the back of increasing selling pressure hitting the Greenback. The up move in the pair, however, is seen as corrective only, as the slowdown in the region stays far from abated and carries the potential to deteriorate further, as per the latest PMIs in core Euroland and despite the lacklustre improvement in a couple of German sentiment gauges. Speaking of Germany, the likeliness that the country could slip back into recession in the third quarter just adds to the already gloomy panorama for the bloc and weighs further on the single currency. The unremitting slowdown in the region does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB. On another front, potential US tariffs on imports of EU cars remain well on the table, while the Brexit limbo and UK politics adds to the ongoing concerns.

EUR/USD technical analysis
At the moment, the pair is retreating 0.09% at 1.0948 and a breach of 1.0879 (2019 low Oct.1) would target 1.0839 (monthly low May 11 2017) en route to 1.0569 (monthly low Apr.10 2017). On the upside, the next hurdle aligns at 1.1000 (21-day SMA) followed by 1.1109 (monthly high Sep.13) and finally 1.1163 (high Aug.26).
 

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
#forex #analysis #socialtrading #fintech

The #GBPUSD pair reversed an early European session dip to sub-1.2200 levels and rallied around 30-35 pips in the last hour, albeit lacked any strong follow-through and quickly retreated few pips thereafter.


The continued showing some resilience below the 1.2200 round-figure marks and managed to regain some positive traction amid some renewed US Dollar weakness. The latest developments on the US-China trade front threatened to derail already delicate trade negotiations and turned out to be one of the key factors weighing on the Greenback.


Brexit uncertainties continue to cap the upside

Apart from a subdued USD price action, the uptick lacked any major fundamental catalyst and remained capped in the wake of overnight reports that Brexit talks between Britain and the European Union were close to breaking down. Meanwhile, the UK PM Boris Johnson reiterated that they would leave the EU by October 31st and revived fears of a no-deal Brexit.


Moreover, the latest comments by the Irish finance minister, Paschal Donohoe clearly indicated that any Brexit deal is nowhere in the offering, which might further contribute towards keeping a lid on any runaway rally for the major. Donohoe said that there is a big gap between the UK and the EU on the crucial Irish backstop issue and constructive engagement is the only choice.


Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying before confirming that the recent slide from the vicinity of the 1.2600 handle is already over and (or) positioning for any further near-term appreciating move amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases - either from the UK or the US.


Later during the early North-American session, a scheduled speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell might influence the USD price dynamics and produce some short-term trading opportunities ahead of the release of the minutes of the latest FOMC monetary policy meeting held on September 17-18.
 

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
#USDJPY #forex #analysis #followme #socialtrading

The #USDJPY pair finally broke out of its daily consolidative trading range and jumped to near two-week tops, around the 108.25 region in the last hour.


A sustained move above 100-day EMA was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders and remained supportive of some follow-through buying interest on Friday.


The pair is now trying to build on the momentum further beyond a four-month-old descending trend-line resistance amid growing US-China trade optimism.


This is closely followed by 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 112.40-104.45 downfall, which if cleared will set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move.


Beyond the said hurdle around mid-108.00s, the pair is likely to aim towards reclaiming the 109.00 handle en-route 61.8% Fibo. resistance near the 109.30-35 region.


On the flip side, any meaningful pullback now seems to find some support near the 107.85 region (100-day EMA), which if broken might negate the constructive outlook.
 

Attachments

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
#GBPUSD #analysis #forex #forexnews #socialtrading

The #GBPUSD pair remained under some selling pressure amid a flurry of #Brexit headlines, albeit managed to recover around 60-65 pips from daily lows touched in the last hour.


The pair failed to capitalize on the previous session's strong upsurge to the highest level since May 21 and met with some aggressive supply on Wednesday amid fading optimism over a possible #Brexit agreement before the fast-approaching October 31 deadline.


Against the backdrop of the #DUP concerns on the UK PM Boris Johnson’s Brexit concessions, a UK official said that the government was downbeat on chances of a Brexit deal, exerted some heavy #pressure on the #Pound.


The #intraday selling pressure aggravated further, dragging the pair closer to mid-1.2600s, in reaction to reports that suggested technical Brexit negotiations have reached an impasse. The report further added that the EU sees Brexit deal as impossible unless the UK moves.


With the latest #Brexit developments turning out to be an exclusive driver of the intraday volatility, the pair seemed rather unaffected by a subdued US Dollar price action, which remained on the defensive amid the ongoing slide in the US Treasury bond yields.


If the GBP/USD pair continues to show some resilience below the 1.2700 round-figure mark or the current pullback marks the end of the recent strong #bullish momentum that started last week and the resumption of the recent bearish trend. #forex #followme #socialtrading
 

Attachments

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
#Forex #Analysis #SocialTrading #ForexSignals
The #USDJPY pair extended its #sideways consolidative price action through the Asian session on Thursday and remained confined in a narrow trading band above mid-108.00s.

The mentioned region marks a resistance breakpoint and coincides with the 50% Fibonacci level of the 112.40-104.45 downfall and should act as a key pivotal point for intraday traders.

Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart maintained their bullish bias and have also eased from slightly overbought conditions on the 4-hourly chart, favouring short-term bullish traders.

A sustained move beyond the 109.00 handle will further reinforce the constructive set-up and set the stage for an accelerated move up towards the 109.30 next resistance zone.

The said hurdle represents early August swing highs and 61.8% Fibo. level, which if cleared will negate any bearish bias and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move.

The pair could then surpass an intermediate resistance near the 109.60-65 region and aim towards reclaiming the key 110.00 psychological mark en-route mid-110.00s supply zone.

On the flip side, any pullback below the mentioned resistance turned support might still be seen as a buying opportunity and help limit the downside near the 109.00-108.90 #SupportArea.
 

Attachments

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
#EURUSD #forex #analysis #socialtrading #followme

EUR/USD now is trading at 1.1130. The upside momentum in the single currency has subsided a tad at the end of the week.


The EUR/USD pair is now struggling for a clear direction following three consecutive daily advances. Indeed, the positive streak includes the ahead 2-month tops in the 1.1140 regions recorded on Thursday, just ahead of the 100-day SMA.


Spot gathered extra pace along with the rest of the riskier assets after the #UK and the #EU clinched a Brexit deal yesterday, although some cautiousness has emerged in past hours in response to firm opposition from the #DUP and ahead of the UK Parliament vote on Saturday.


In the euro docket, Current Account figures for the month of August are only due later, while speeches by Dallas Fed R.Kaplan (2020 voter, dovish), Kansas City Fed E.George (voter, hawkish) and #FOMC’s R.Clarida (permanent voter, dovish) are next on the US calendar.


The upside momentum in the pair has extended further north of the critical 1.1100 handle against the backdrop of a weaker buck and optimism from the recently clinched Brexit deal. However, it is worth recalling that the positive 3-week streak in spot has been exclusively sponsored by the renewed offered bias in the Dollar and that the outlook in Euroland continues to deteriorate and does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB and the bearish view on the single currency in the longer run. In addition, the possibility that the German economy could slip into recession in Q3 remains a palpable risk for the outlook and is expected to weigh further on EUR.


At the moment, the pair is losing 0.01% at 1.1124 and faces the next barrier at 1.1139 (monthly high Oct.17) seconded by 1.1163 (high Aug.26) and finally 1.1186 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally). On the flip side, a break below 1.1050 (21-day SMA) would target 1.0994 (21-day SMA) en route to 1.0879 (2019 low Oct.1).
 

Attachments

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
#WeekAhead #Forex #Followme #SocialTrading
Hi Traders, happy new week!
“He who seizes the right moment is the right man.”

Here is this week forex calendar highlights:
(GMT+0)
Monday
01:30 China PBoC Interest Rate Decision
reaction to Brexit vote and Canadian elections

Tuesday
08:00 EuropeECB Bank Lending Survey
12:30 Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)

Wednesday
14:30 Crude oil inventories

Thursday
07:30 German Markit PMI Composite (Oct)
07:30 German Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
08:00 Eurozone PMIs
11:45 ECB Deposit Rate Decision
11:45 ECB Interest Rate Decision
12:30 US Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (Sep)
12:30 ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference


Friday
06:00 German GfK Consumer Climate
08:00 German Ifo Business Climate



#GBPUSD #Brexit
The GBP/USD was continuing to find buyers late in the day on Friday, with investors reacting to some UK media reports that said Boris Johnson had secured enough backing to support his deal. However, what matters is the actual votes in the ‘Super Saturday’ sitting.

#Labour is strongly advising its #MPs to oppose the deal, and most, perhaps all, are likely to do so. 10 ‘no’ votes appear all but inevitable from MPs of Ireland’s DUP party that has also vowed to oppose the deal. So, the fate of Boris Johnson’s plan hangs partly on Tory pro-Brexit MPs who have repeatedly voted down previous deals
The #PM is busily making pleading calls to MPs ‘across the Commons’ as the weekend approaches, says Downing Street. There’s really no telling how persuasive he will be, till the result of the vote is known. It’s a recipe for investors to execute only the most necessary moves in advance, before a possible ‘manic Monday’ in Saturday’s wake
#MarketsReaction
Should the deal get the majority required in Parliament for the #UK to leave the #EU in an orderly fashion, we could expect sterling to rally and the #FTSE to jump higher in a knee-jerk reaction, similar to what we saw on Thursday’s announcement of the Brexit deal. However, the stronger pound could eventually weigh on the #FTSE given the index’s high percentage of multinationals earning abroad which will be hit by the less favorable exchange rate.
Should Boris Johnson’s selling skills fail him, and the deal does not pass through #Parliament we can expect the pound and the FTSE to sell off sharply, the reverse of Thursday’s reaction, with the FTSE then potentially rebounding as it responds to sterling’s decline.

#ECB
It will be #MarioDraghi’s last policy meeting as the head of the #ECB, and having just re-introduced #QE at the last meeting he will likely go out with a whimper. The euro has appreciated since the ECB’s last meeting, partly because of Brexit optimism and also due to a weakening dollar. Also, raised hopes over a US-China trade resolution, which could boost Chinese demand for Eurozone exports, has also supported the single currency. Furthermore, several ECB policymakers have criticized Draghi’s renewed bond-buying program and called for a change of strategy when Christine Lagarde takes over next month. The probability of further policy loosening has therefore fallen.
 

Attachments

strauss

Active Trader
Sep 5, 2019
20
0
32
25
#forex #forexnews #Brexit
#GBPUSD is trading at 1.2867, having breached key support on Tuesday, courtesy of Brexit delay.
The pound fell below the 50-hour moving average, confirming a bearish reversal on short duration charts. The key MA had consistently reversed pullbacks throughout the rally from 1.22 to 1.30 and may work as stiff resistance henceforth.

The GBP was offered as #PrimeMinister #Johnson's #BrexitBill won parliamentary support, but the government’s timetable of just 3 days debate on the bill was rejected.

With the parliamentary defeat, the probability of Britain leaving the European Union (#EU) before the Oct. 31 deadline has dropped sharply.

Further, a source in Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s office said on Tuesday that a new election would be the only way to move on from Britain’s Brexit crisis if the European Union agrees to a delay until January.

On a daily chart, the uptrend in GBP/USD appears to have stalled. Signs of indecision loom as a #Bearish Harami candlestick pattern risks paving the way for a reversal. Prices are eyeing near-term support which is a range between 1.2773 and 1.2798. A close under this barrier could open the door to testing former highs from September. Otherwise, clearing resistance at 1.3001 prolongs the uptrend.
Expectation for GBP to “retest the 1.3010/15 level” was incorrect as GBP rose briefly to 1.3000 before plummeting to 1.2862 during NY hours. Upward pressure has dissipated and the short-term risk is for a deeper pullback. That said, any weakness is viewed as a lower trading range of 1.2810/1.2920 and a sustained decline below 1.2810 appears unlikely for now.

Next 1-3 weeks:
#GBP tried to break clearly above 1.3000 for the second straight day yesterday (22 Oct) but slumped after touching 1.3000. For now, there is no change to our view from Monday (21 Oct, spot at 1.2880) wherein “GBP has to ‘punch’ above 1.3000 and register a NY closing above this level in order to indicate that the current rally has enough ‘ammunitions’ to extend to 1.3050, possibly as high as 1.3150”. While there is no change to our view, severely overbought conditions suggest GBP could ill afford to dither below 1.3000 or the risk of a short-term top would increase rapidly. From here, unless GBP cracks and stays above 1.3000 within these 1 to 2 days, a break of 1.2770 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the positive phase that started more than a week ago (see annotations in the chart below) has run its course. Looking ahead, a breach of 1.2770 would suggest that GBP is ready to ‘take a breather’ after the steep rally over the past couple of weeks.