EUR/USD - Weekly Update


Active Trader
Apr 19, 2010
EUR/USD: Current 1.3501 (Sunday, April 18, 2010).

Trend: Sideways.
Outlook: Bearish

(Please refer daily charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts.)

Watch outs: Goldman Sachs (fraud case) and Greece (economic crisis).

1) US: Jobless claims climbed unexpectedly.
2) US but with effect not specific to US only: Goldman Sachs sued by regulators for fraud.
3) US: Good Inflation data signals reduces the chance of near future hike in interest rates
4) US: Consumer confidence fell to 5 months low.
5) US: Trade balance report negative.
6) US: Sales at US retailers climbed more than expected.
7) US: Home Sales, Goods Orders Probably Climbed: U.S. Economy Preview

8) Europe: Consumer confidence suddenly dropped.
9) Europe: Greece rescue measures may only give temporary relief for Euro. There are other weaker states in the bloc.
10) Europe: Trade balance better than previous release.

Technicals and Market perception:
1) The currency pair’s downward movement from 1.5142 seems to have completed 5 waves (see the chart).

Analysis: Overall the outlook is bearish. Considering the fundamentals and technicals we would expect a sideways movement for sometime but also expect EUR/USD to move towards 1.3400 ranges in the coming days. With the 5 wave cycle seemingly completed, there is a chance of rebound but even if the currency pair moves up there should be a strong resistance at 1.3800 and the 1.3960.
Overall we are expecting the currency pair to test a new recent low near 1.3000 in the near future.