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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD Simple Analysis on Daily Chart using basic tools
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[QUOTE="James Alejandro, post: 23711, member: 13418"] Continuing from my earlier posting EUR/USD traded at 1.35169, and I have said that there will be an increase with volatility by this week. True enough it has made a 200 pips downward move in a single day. Touching the lower part of my downward channel line. I would like to emphasize on a few important point in this posting. In every trades it is very important that you know how to assess your risk, and I would like to point out some useful tips for you. [IMG]http://i569.photobucket.com/albums/ss133/james2002ysf/Chart_EUR_USD_Weekly_snapshot24112011Weeklyblogging.png[/IMG] 1) The picture above is a weekly chart of EUR/USD. And if you have follow my eariler posting, you will realize that I have drawn an addition trend line marking with number 1. As it is not a confirm trend line yet, I used dotted line to represent a potential support trend line to assess whether it will make reverse upward move later. As you can see, it touches nicely on the blue dotted trend line. Therefore, price should consolidate for a while to gain strength and momentum for next move. So what you want to know is, which side will it go? up or down? Now let’s zoom in to view day chart. [IMG]http://i569.photobucket.com/albums/ss133/james2002ysf/Chart_EUR_USD_Weekly_snapshot24112011Dailyblogging.png[/IMG] 2) All moving average are above the candlestick. The blue MA has cross red and green once, but fail to meet yellow MA. That doesn’t mean it will not try to touching the yellow MA again. 3) What you want to see from here is that whether will the candlestick go above 1.34439 and stay there. If it does stay, there is a chance that it will at least go up 150 to 200 pips from 1.34439. 4) There is an important news announcement from German Ifo Business Climate later at 4am (GMT -5:00) today. This news will create a short spike depending on how market read the news, it can go at any direction. Therefore, if you intend to enter and hold position. You might want to enter after the news release, to avoid stop-loss trigger. As to this point, I will like to see if a double bottom or a higher low will form. If this pattern appear probability of winning by going long will weight higher than shorting. There are a lot of false break in forex trading, and these might be just one of them false breaking downward and may have a reversal effect. I would prefer to wait for the “false break” to happen first and decide later if the trend is really going down. [/QUOTE]
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