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Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF
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[QUOTE="Elliottwave-Forecast, post: 202106, member: 40858"] Dollar Index $DXY is another instrument that has given us trading opportunities lately . Dollar Index is showing incomplete sequences in the cycle from the June low. Recently it made clear 3 waves pull back and found buyers at the blue box as we expected. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the charts of Dollar index published in members area of the website and explain the Elliott Wave structure and trading strategy. [HEADING=3]$DXY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 11.18.2021[/HEADING] Current view suggests $DXY is doing 4 red correction labeled as ((a))((b))((c)). Pull back is showing lower low sequences and looks incomplete at the moment. We expect to see another leg down toward 95.53-95.24 ( buyers area) . Buyers should ideally appear at the blue box for 3 waves bounce at least. Once bounce reaches 50 Fibs against the ((b)) black connector, we will make long position risk free ( put SL at BE). Invalidation for the trade would be break below 1.618 fibs extension: 95.24. [I]You can learn more about Elliott Wave Patterns at our [B]Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page[/B].[/I] [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/USDX-11.18..jpg'][IMG alt="Dollar"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/USDX-11.18..jpg[/IMG][/URL] [HEADING=3]$DXY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 11.23.2021[/HEADING] Eventually Dollar has given us leg down toward blue box as expected. Buyers appeared at the marked zone and we got very good reaction from there. The rally from the blue box made a break toward new highs making Dollar Index bullish against the 95.51 low in first degree. As a result members who took long positions are enjoying profits in risk free positions ( stop loss is put at the entry point) . We believe another push up can be seen toward 96.69+ area to complete short term cycle from the 95.51 low as 5 waves rally before larger (4) blue pull back takes place. Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the [B]Live Trading Room[/B]. [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/USDX-11.23.jpg'][IMG alt="$DXY"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/USDX-11.23.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [B]Elliott Wave Forecast[/B] Source: [URL]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/trading/dollar-dxy-forecasting-rally-buying/[/URL] [automerge]1638199045[/automerge] Back in December 2020, we presented within the main article both the monthly and the daily view in the USDRUB. Long-term, the pair should provide a resolution thrust higher out of a multi-year triangle pattern. This means a weakness of Russian currency. Medium-term, however, we saw Russian Rouble gaining strength as related to the US Dollar. Short-term, Rouble weakness has provided a connector wave higher within USDRUB which might be ending soon. Here, we present the updated monthly and daily charts discussing the medium-term targets. [HEADING=3]Rouble Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 11.28.2021[/HEADING] The monthly chart below shows the USDRUB pair traded on the Forex market. From July 2008, the USDRUB is extending higher within a wave ((c)) of a grand super cycle degree. From the 2008 lows at 23.06, the cycle higher has accomplished so far the waves (I)-(III). Hereby, the pair saw the all-time highs on January 2016 at 85.94. Wave (III) has extended far beyond the 1.618 multiples of the wave (I) confirming that the larger cycle from 2008 lows is an impulse. To be mentionned, impulses are motive waves and they count from (I) to (V). Therefore, after a consolidation in wave (IV), at least another push towards 85.94 and higher in wave (V) should be expected. Long term view of USDRUB, as a consequece, favors more Rouble weakness. In the medium term, Rouble should strengthen against USD. Correlation across the market instruments supports the Elliott Wave contracting triangle pattern in the USDRUB. Triangle is a 3-3-3-3-3 continuation structure. From the January 2016 highs, red waves a and b of the cycle degree have ended on March 2020. While below the 82.90 highs, wave c of (IV) should extend lower towards 66.07-56.87 area. Later on, expect wave d higher to fail below 82.90 highs for another leg lower in wave e. Then, wave (V) can start towards 85.94 highs and even beyond. [HEADING=3][URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/RUB-Monthly2.jpg'][IMG alt="Rouble Elliott Wave Monthly"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/RUB-Monthly2-300x147.jpg[/IMG][/URL][/HEADING] [HEADING=3]Rouble Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 11.28.2021[/HEADING] The daily chart below shows the ((Y)) leg lower of the red c wave within triangle in wave (IV) in more detail. From the November 2020 highs at 80.95, a cycle lower within wave ((Y)) is in progress. In shorter cycles, wave (W) has ended in October 2021 at 69.16 low. From there, a sharp connector higher in wave (X) should fail below November 2020 highs for another push lower within wave (Y) of ((Y)). The target to the downside is 66.07-56.87 area. There, USDRUB should find support for a bounce in red wave d higher. Otherwise, in case of breaking below 56.87 level, the triangle pattern in wave (IV) will need a reevaluation. As an outlook, decline towards 66.07-56.87 area signifies the medium term Rouble strength. Therefore, traders can be looking to sell the bounces against 80.95 peak in 7 or 11 swings until USDRUB will not not reach at least 66.07 level. However, long term favors still the dominance of the Dollar over the currency of the Russian federation. Indeed, the larger cycle from 2008 looks still incomplete and 85.94 highs should still be reached in a longer run. [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/RUB-Daily2.jpg'][IMG alt="Rouble Elliott Wave Daily"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/RUB-Daily2-300x147.jpg[/IMG][/URL] Source: [URL]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/forex/rouble-strength-within-triangle/[/URL] [automerge]1638199077[/automerge] Silver Miners (SIL) reached the support area from August 6 peak in 7 swing and reacted higher. However, in the last few trading sessions, the ETF has taken a turn lower. What's the outlook for the ETF and what alternative should we consider? Let's take a look at the Elliott Wave update below: [HEADING=3]SIL Monthly Elliott Wave Chart[/HEADING] [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/SIL-Monthly20211126120504.jpg'][IMG]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/SIL-Monthly20211126120504.jpg[/IMG][/URL] The Monthly Chart above shows that SIL may have ended wave ((2)) pullback at $34.21 inside the blue box. In case it breaks below $34.21 again, then the ETF simply extends lower but still within wave ((2)) and the blue box area between $26.26 - $35.31 remains the area where a base is expected to form for the next leg higher in the ETF. [HEADING=3]SIL Daily Elliott Wave Chart[/HEADING] [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/SIL-Daily20211126115654.jpg'][IMG alt="SIL Daily Elliott Wave Chart"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/SIL-Daily20211126115654.jpg[/IMG][/URL] After forming wave ((2)) low on October 5 inside the blue box, the ETF has rallied in what looks like a 3 waves. It's possible that SIL is doing an expanded Flat correction in wave 2. As long as the pullback stays above wave ((2)) low at 34.21, expect further upside. Alternatively, if it breaks below $34.21, we can count the entire decline from wave ((1)) as a Flat. In this scenario, the ETF can see 1 more push in wave 5 of (C). Either way, the daily invalidation level at $16.76 remains the key pivot and the ETF is expected to extend higher once the correction is over. Source: [URL]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/elliott-wave-forecast-silver-miners-sil-flat-correction/[/URL] [/QUOTE]
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