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Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF
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[QUOTE="Elliottwave-Forecast, post: 198716, member: 40858"] Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to talk about Microsoft $MSFT stock and take a look at the charts presented in members area of the Elliottwave-Forecast. As our members know, Microsoft is showing incomplete bullish sequences , calling the further rally. The stock is bullish against the 268.66 low. Consequently, we advised our members to avoid selling the Stock, favoring the long side. Recently the pair has found buyers after completing Elliott Wave Expanded Flat Pattern. In further text we’re going to explain the forecast and Elliott Wave Pattern. Before we take a look at the real market example of Regular Flat, let’s explain the pattern in a few words. Elliott Wave Regular Flat is a 3 wave corrective pattern which could often be seen in the market nowadays. Inner subdivision is labeled as A,B,C , with inner 3,3,5 structure. Waves A and B have forms of corrective structures like zigzag, flat, double three or triple three. Third wave C is always 5 waves structure, either motive impulse or ending diagonal pattern. Wave B is usually very deep, but ends below starting point of A. [I]You can learn more about Elliott Wave Flats and other Patterns at our [B]Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page[/B].[/I] At the graphic below, we can see what Expanded Flat structure looks like. [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/amember/go.php?r=2885&i=l36'][IMG alt="Microsoft"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/regular-flats.jpg[/IMG][/URL] Now, let’s take a look at real market example and see what that pattern looks like. [HEADING=3]Microsoft 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 08.19.2021[/HEADING] Microsoft is doing 4 red correction that is unfolding as Elliott Wave Flat pattern. We got 3 waves down in ((a)) leg ,then 3 waves bounce in ((b)) and now doing final ((c)) leg. Wave 4 red pull back still looks incomplete at the moment. We expect to see another marginal push lower to complete 5 waves down in ((c)) leg. The stock remains bullish against the 08.19 low.We don't recommend selling it in any pull back and expect further rally to continue once 4 red correction ends. [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/MSFT-1H20210819081414.jpg'][IMG alt="Microsoft"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/MSFT-1H20210819081414.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [HEADING=3]Microsoft 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 08.19.2021[/HEADING] The stock made another short term low as we expected. As far as the price stays above 287.25 low, we believe 4 red pull back is completed there as Elliott Wave Flat. Now we need to see further separation higher, and break above August 16th peak to confirm next leg up is in progress. [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/MSFT-8.19-pre-martket.png'][IMG alt="Microsoft"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/MSFT-8.19-pre-martket.png[/IMG][/URL] [HEADING=3]Microsoft 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 08.19.2021[/HEADING] The stock held above 287.25 low and resume trading higher. Eventually we got break above previous 3 red peak - August 16th, confirming next leg higher is in progress. Microsoft now remains bullish against the 287.25 low in first degree. We expect it to keep finding buyers in 3,7,11 swings as far as the mentioned pivot holds. Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the [B]Live Trading Room[/B]. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/MSFT-1H20210819123622.jpg'][IMG alt="Microsoft"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/MSFT-1H20210819123622.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [B]Elliott Wave Forecast[/B] Source: [URL]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/elliottwave/microsoft-msft-rally-elliott-wave/[/URL] [automerge]1630202385[/automerge] TecDAX is a stock index which tracks the performance of 30 largest German companies from the technology sector. Even though these enterprises are of a high economic importance, their market capitalization and the book order turnover are far below of that of the DAX index. The TecDAX is related to DAX in a similar way like NASDAQ is related to Dow Jones Industrial Average index. From technical perspective, NASDAQ has been the strongest index in the US. As a matter of fact, it has provided high rewards for those traders who were buying the dips for more upside. One of the features of the market behavior is that weak indices remain weak and strong indices remain strong. The fact that NASDAQ has been outpacing other US indices makes it a good candidate to buy it again once the indices turn higher again. Similar strong uptrend can be also seen in a behavior of TecDAX. This index, therefore, allows entering the German technology sector by providing investors and traders with high returns and protecting them, at the same time, from the defaults originating from trading of single stocks. Last year, we have presented in the initial article an expectation for more upside in the TecDAX. We were right, the rally has happened as anticipated. Here, we will present an update. [HEADING=3]TecDAX Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 08.23.2021[/HEADING] The monthly chart below shows the TecDAX index $TDXP listed at Frankfurt Stock Exchange. From the all-time lows, the index price has developed a cycle higher in wave (I) of a super cycle degree. It has ended in November 2007 at 1060.35. From there, a correction lower in wave (II) has retraced part of the rise by printing a bottom in March 2009 at 387.50. In 2013, TecDAX was able to make a higher high opening up a bullish sequence. As a matter of fact, it has extended from March 2009 lows far beyond 1.618. Therefore, the cycle higher is an impulse in blue wave (III). It has reached 3051.44 highs in September 2018. From the top, a correction lower has unfolded as an expanded flat which has found its bottom in March 2020 at 2127.05. From march 2020 lows, a cycle higher in blue wave (V) has started and might be already in the final stages. Once wave (V) of the cycle in black wave ((I)) will end, a correction in wave ((II)) against the all-time lows should follow. [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/TDXP-Monthly-2021.jpg'][IMG alt="TecDax Elliott Wave Monthly"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/TDXP-Monthly-2021-300x147.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [HEADING=3]TecDAX Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 08.23.2021[/HEADING] The daily chart below shows in more detail the $TDXP price action from the March 2020 lows. The advance is an impulse in blue wave (V) which might be in the final stages. Red waves I-IV of a cycle degree have ended. Currently, red wave V is unfolding as a thrust out of a triangle in wave IV. On its own, red wave V looks like it is missing one swing more to the upside. Then, a larger correction can take place. In a larger picture, TecDAX demonstrates enough number swings and can be correcting lower very soon. Hence, it is dangerous to buy the technology index from Germany at current levels. A consolidation move in wave ((II)) will provide another opportunity though. Investors and traders can, therefore, be looking to buy TecDAX in a pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings into a larger wave ((III)) higher. [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/TDXP-Daily-2021.jpg'][IMG alt="TecDax Elliott Wave Daily"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/TDXP-Daily-2021-300x147.jpg[/IMG][/URL] Source: [URL]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/tecdax-advanced-decision-area/[/URL] [automerge]1630202419[/automerge] Kering is a French multinational luxury goods company. Headquartered in Paris, Kering was founded 1963 as Pinault S.A. The company controls and manages 3 prestigious brands: Gucci, Yves Saint Laurent and Bottega Veneta. Kering is a part of CAC40 index. Investors can trade it under the ticker $KER at Euronext Paris. [HEADING=3]Kering Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 08.23.2021[/HEADING] The monthly chart below shows the Kering stock $KER listed at Euronext. From the all-time lows, first, the stock price has developed a cycle higher in wave (I) of a super cycle degree. It has ended in January 2000 at 268.00. From the top, a correction lower in wave (II) has unfolded as an Elliott Wave zigzag pattern. It has printed a bottom in November 2008 at 31.06. From the 2008 lows, Kering has broken to new highs and is still within a strong rally. This rise shows an extension of more than 2.618 multiples in relation to the length of the wave (I). Without any doubt, one can qualify the cycle higher as the blue wave (III). From 2008 lows, it shows 5 waves higher of cycle degree. Currently, the red wave V is extending higher and should still see more upside in the coming months. Then, expect the blue wave (III) to end and a pullback in blue wave (IV) to happen. Investors and traders can be looking to buy wave (IV) in 3, 7 or 11 swings against 31.06 lows expecting more upside in blue wave (V). [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/KER-monthly.jpg'][IMG alt="Kering Elliott Wave Monthly"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/KER-monthly-300x147.jpg[/IMG][/URL] Source: [URL]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/kering-remains-strong/[/URL] [automerge]1630202468[/automerge] Since the crash of March 2020, all stocks have tried to recover what they lost and JNJ was no exception. Johnson & Johnson did not only recover the lost, but it also reached historic highs. In those days, we were looking as a first entry in 155.33 – 156.93 area to reach a target above $176 and a few days ago we achieved the minimum target at $178.97. [HEADING=2][B]JNJ April Daily Chart[/B][/HEADING] [B][URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/JNJD20210320175149.png'][IMG alt="JNJ April Daily Chart"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/JNJD20210320175149.png[/IMG][/URL][/B] In April old chart, we can clearly see that after the fall of March 2020, JNJ had a strong and rapid recovery in 3 swings. The wave ((3)) had its highest point at 173.69 where market rejected. This rejection did another double correction structure and overlaps the wave ((1)) zone to end the wave ((4)) and from here it should continue higher to complete wave ((5)) as a diagonal. (If you want to learn more about Elliott Wave Theory, please follow this link: Elliott Wave Theory). [HEADING=2][B]JNJ July Daily Chart [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/JNJD20210720230852.png'][IMG alt="JNJ July Daily Chart"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/JNJD20210720230852.png[/IMG][/URL][/B][/HEADING] The share price continued to rise until reaching 172.79, we call wave (1) and you can see the structure is a Leading Diagonal (LD). Besides in April, wave 2 in red drop to our minimum entry at 156.93 and bounce to complete the LD. From there, we have a clear correction as a zig zag wave (2) missing our ideal second entry for a few cents and the possible target to complete wave ((5)) came in 178.97 – 187.48 area. [HEADING=2][B]JNJ Daily Chart [/B][/HEADING] [B][URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/JNJD20210823125609.png'][IMG alt="JNJ Daily Chart "]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/JNJD20210823125609.png[/IMG][/URL][/B] We are calling wave (3) of ((5)) at 179.92. That means our 178.97 minimun target was achieved from 156.93 give us a 14.04% return. Actually, we are expecting a pullback as wave (4) and then a last push above 179.92 to complete wave (5) and also the wave ((5)) of the big ending diagonal. This is the principal view and we need a little more run of the market to determinate some new alternatives that could happen with JNJ from here. Source: [URL]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/jnj-achieved-target-14-04-return/[/URL] [automerge]1630202525[/automerge] In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of 4 hour Elliott Wave Charts of EURNZD, which we presented to members at the elliottwave-forecast. In which, the pullback from 18 June 2021 high unfolded as a double three structure & showed a blue box area. A green right side tag suggested buying opportunity in the pair looking for the next leg higher or for a 3 wave bounce at least. We will explain the structure & forecast below: [HEADING=3]EURNZD 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart[/HEADING] [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/EURNZD-11-August-4-Hour.jpg'][IMG alt="EURNZD Bouncing Strongly From Elliott wave Blue Box Area"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/EURNZD-11-August-4-Hour-1024x511.jpg[/IMG][/URL] Here's 4hr Elliott wave chart of EURNZD from the 8/11/2021 update. In which, the pullback from 6/18/2021 high unfolded as Elliott wave double three structure where wave W ended at 1.6691 low. Wave X bounce ended at 1.7101 high and wave Y managed to reach the blue box area at 1.6657- 1.6553. From where buyers were expected to appear looking for more upside or for a 3 wave bounce at least. [HEADING=3]EURNZD Latest 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart[/HEADING] [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/3EURNZD-4H20210823222614.jpg'][IMG alt="EURNZD Bouncing Strongly From Elliott wave Blue Box Area"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/3EURNZD-4H20210823222614-1024x525.jpg[/IMG][/URL] Here’s the 4hr Elliott wave chart of EURNZD from the 8/23/2021 update. The pair is showing a strong reaction higher taking place from the blue box area after ending the double three correction at a 1.6637 low. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the long positions at the blue box area. Source: [URL]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/forex/eurnzd-bouncing-strongly-blue-box-area/[/URL] [automerge]1630202563[/automerge] $UUP Long term Cycles and Bearish Sequence Firstly the dollar tracking ETF fund UUP inception date was 2/20/2007. Interestingly the dollar index has a low in March 2008. The UUP ETF fund shows a low in May 2011. The dollar index did make a pullback cycle low in May 2011 however it was well above the March 2008 lows. The cycle up from the May 2011 lows in UUP is the focus of this analysis where it begins on the monthly chart. It should see some further downside relatively soon before any more larger bounces higher in the longer term cycles. The analysis continues below the $UUP monthly chart. [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/uup-m-8-24-21.png'][IMG]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/uup-m-8-24-21-1024x506.png[/IMG][/URL] Secondly the cycle up from the May 2011 lows in UUP appears to have advanced higher with some overlap in the cycles. From the May 2011 lows the dollar instrument appears to have 7 swings in place to the March 2020 highs. This cycle from the May 2011 lows to the March 2020 highs is a corrective sequence. Thirdly and in conclusion. The bearish corrective sequence plus the decline from the March 2020 highs suggests further downside in the dollar for some time to come. March 2020 saw some fast 6th & 7th swings. The best reading of the cycles suggest the decline from there in to the January 2021 lows was an impulsive five waves of larger degree. The price decline to the January 2021 lows also caused our trend system pivot to give up. This suggests the cycle from May 2011 was over. In this case that would be the fourth swing low from January 2018. After a little near term weakness the dollar can see another high in the blue box extension area before resuming a larger downtrend. Source: [URL]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/uup-long-term-cycles-and-bearish-sequence/[/URL] [automerge]1630202601[/automerge] $FXA Longer Term Elliott Wave Cycles and Analysis The FXA ETF fund is the Australian dollar tracking fund that has an inception Date of 06/21/2006. With that said the fund mainly reflects the currency spot price of the AUDUSD forex pair. The data available from the Reserve Bank of Australia at their website suggests the spot price was 1.4875 back in 1973 to 1974 translates into an FXA price of around 148.75. The cycle analysis suggests a larger pullback cycle ended in March 2020. Back before the FXA fund inception date, the AUDUSD spot currency price reached what is still the currency low in April 2001 at .4778. From there the currency pair went up in what appears to be a lead diagonal until July 2011 at a high of 1.1080. That translates into the FXA ETF fund price high of 110.99 in July 2011. This is where the monthly Elliott wave analysis begins on the chart below. The analysis continues below the monthly chart. [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/fxa-m-8-24-21.png'][IMG]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/fxa-m-8-24-21-1024x506.png[/IMG][/URL] Secondly the decline from the aforementioned July 2011 highs does not seem legitimately able to count the whole cycle from there down to the January 2016 lows as a regular impulse by itself as a whole. The cycle lower in the red wave w has been subdivided as an ((A))-((B))-((C)) in black. The instrument has since then bounced in three swings. Further, this appeared to be a zig zag Elliott wave x in red that ended in January 2018. Thirdly and in conclusion, since the wave x highs from January 2018 the instrument has declined in another Elliott Wave double three structure into the March 2020 lows. There it appears ended a larger pullback cycle. Lastly, from there it now appears the pair can soon finish correcting the cycle up from the March 2020 lows. While the pullback remains above there it should trend higher again. Source: [URL]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/fxa-longer-term-elliott-wave-cycles-and-analysis/[/URL] [/QUOTE]
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