Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD set for more gains

It can be observed on the hourly chart for the yellow metal that the bullion broke out of the descending channel pattern to the upside. Due to that reason it can be assumed that more gains are to be scored, as on Thursday morning the commodity price fluctuated just below the 1,280 mark. The 1,280 mark seemed to pose some sort of rather weak but still notable resistance.

This recent breakout, which was initially not expected, occurred due to fundamental reasons. The recent quarrels between the United States and North Korea have created a sort of run to safety. Moreover, it reversed the recent fundamental strengthening of the US Dollar after the JOLTS Jobs Openings release.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD reveals junior pattern

The previous long term support line continued to provide resistance to the currency exchange rate in the previous trading session, as it stopped a rebound of the EUR/USD pair.

On Friday morning the currency pair was declining after the encounter of the just mentioned resistance line. It was about to face the support of the 55-hour SMA, which as located near the 1.1750 mark.

Meanwhile, the main focus should be on the fact that an ascending channel pattern was revealed during Thursday’s trading session. The pattern’s lower trend line provides guidance for the ones, who want to know, where a rebound will occur.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD at three-week low

GBP/USD remained between the weekly S1 and the 100-hour SMA on Thursday, thus providing two additional confirmations of a descending triangle. The exchange rate managed to bounce off the short-term down-trend this morning; however, the lack of volatility demonstrates trader indecisiveness towards the pair. As the rate has entered a consolidation phase, it is rather unclear to which direction the Pound is set to go. Bearish technical indicators are signalling to a possible recovery that may lead the Sterling towards the 1.3020/40 area. Alternatively, the aforementioned triangle may be respected, thus setting the British currency down to the weekly S1 at 1.2953. Given the characteristics of this pattern, the weekly and monthly S1s should be breached to the downside.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY breaks support

Downside risks prevailed on Thursday, thus resulting in a 114-pip plunge in one day. The pair breached the lower boundary of a three-week channel and, consequently, edged below the weekly S2 at 109.33. The given move has formed a more steeper channel down. The downside momentum has allayed, giving room for some upside potential that may be realised in this session. The given assumption that the US Dollar may appreciate against the Yen today is supported by technical oscillators being in the oversold territory and other indicators—at historical lows. Nevertheless, down-trend is still strong. The nearest support formed by the monthly S1 and the weekly S1 at 108.81/82 could be an unbreakable limit, thus guiding the pair towards the upper boundary of the junior channel circa 109.40.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD continues to climb

The yellow metal’s price has broken past the 1,280 mark, which managed to hold off the metal for a couple of hours.

On Friday morning, an ascending pattern was noticed. It can be mapped by connecting the high levels of early August 8 trading hours and the early high level of August 10. In that way the resistance line can be observed. However, the possible support line of a channel might be pinpointed by setting the parallel line at the August 8 low level.

In the meantime, it can be observed on various charts that there are no notable resistance levels until the 1,290 mark.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD recovers from three-week low

GBP/USD halted at the 1.2960 mark on Friday, thus forming a triple bottom. The rate consequently went through the 55– and 100-hour SMAs, the latter of which has since provided strong support near the 1.30 mark.

The Pound is trading sideways this morning, fluctuating around the newly-established weekly PP at 1.3001.

It is likely that a support cluster formed by the aforementioned SMAs provides a strong barrier. By and large, no significant leaps either direction are expected today, resulting in a rather flat movement. The Pound, however, may still edge higher against the Greenback and approach the 1.3040 area.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY realises upside potential

The US Dollar was relatively flat against the Yen on Friday, thus remaining in the 109.00/20 area for the whole session. The given lack of momentum changed this morning when the rate managed to reach the weekly PP at 109.62.

The steepness of the downtrend has shifted north, as apparent from the rate’s inability to reach the lower channel boundary. Thus, the formation of a junior channel down was confirmed.

Taking into account bullish technical indicators, the upside limit for this session may be set at the upper boundary of either the senior or junior channel circa 109.80 and 110.20, respectively. The latter is also supported by the 200-hour SMA.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD patterns get adjusted

The recent surge of the Euro against the US Dollar to the 1.1850 mark has forces a review of the situation of the pair. Both, short term and medium term patterns were adjusted.

After the adjustment the medium term descending channel pattern is with a lesser incline than previously thought. Meanwhile, the junior patter seems to be still holding. However, in the near future it will become obsolete.

All in all, the forecast of a decline of the pair remains in force. Although, in the next 24 hours the currency pair will face the support of the 55 and 100–hour SMAs together with the weekly PP in a range from 1.1780 to 1.1760.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD encounters dominant resistance

As forecasted, the price of the yellow metal reached the 1,290 mark on Friday. However, the surge has most likely ended in the medium term.

The commodity price has reached and bounced off the upper trend line of a dominant ascending channel pattern near the 1,293 mark. The trend line was and still is supported by the various term levels of significance, which are located from the 1,290 to 1,295 levels. In addition, during the bounce off the junior ascending pattern was broken.

Most likely gold price will continue to decline and form a short term descending pattern, which will guide the metal to the support of the dominant pattern.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD finds support at 1.1725 mark

As it was expected, the EUR/USD currency pair is continuing the decline. On Tuesday morning the pair suddenly reached the support of the weekly S1, which is located at the 1.1726 level. The move was expected to occur, and it came into reality, as the 100-hour SMA was passed at the 1.1770 level.

The currency pair rebounded against the mentioned weekly support level. However, it is still to be expected that the rate will decline. The reason for that is the fact that the pair remains in a medium term descending channel pattern.

Most likely in the near future the pair will go for the support of the pattern. On Tuesday the support of the channel was already located below the 1.17 mark.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD falls below 1.2960

Despite forming a triple bottom, the Pound failed to surge against the US Dollar on Monday. It reached the 1.3020 area and fell back down to the aforementioned support. The morning session was characterised by a lack of volatility. This situation, however, changed dramatically prior the UK and the US data releases, as already apparent from bears pushing the Pound past the monthly and weekly S1s. Although the pair failed to surpass 1.2960 four times, it was pushed down to the 1.2940 mark prior to UK fundamentals. Even if the Pound edges lower within the upcoming hour, technical indicators favour the rate reversing to the upside eventually. Thus, the ultimate upward limit might be a resistance cluster formed by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY set for possible reversal

During the last trading session, the US Dollar managed to recover some losses against the Yen, as political tensions in the Korean peninsula eased. The rate surpassed all three SMAs and the weekly PP just to reach the weekly R1 at 110.51. In addition, the pair managed to breach two descending channels.

The weekly R1 is likely to be a turning point, as technical indicators seek to retrace from the current levels. In case strong fundamental data do not put an upward pressure on the Dollar, the American currency may range between the weekly R1 and PP in this session. Possible downside limit could be either the 200-hour SMA or the upper boundary of the senior channel down.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD approaches 1,270 mark

The decline of the commodity price continues, as expected. The bullion is reaching for the 1,270 mark, which it will most likely reach during Tuesday’s trading session.

However, just above that level the support of the 200-hour SMA was located at the 1,271 level on Tuesday morning. In addition, it could be observed that the SMA is not likely to move, as it had set a horizontal direction.

It can be expected that the bullion will retreat down to this support level. However, the afterwards direction is likely going to be dictated by political events and this weeks scheduled events like the release of the FOMC meeting minutes.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD bounces off dominant support

The EUR/USD currency exchange remains predictable, as another target was reached during Tuesday’s trading session. As it can be observed on the chart, the Euro reached the support line of the medium term descending channel pattern against the US Dollar.

On Wednesday various events can be expected. First of all, a new short term ascending pattern should be spotted. Secondly, as the pair has reached above the resistance of the weekly S1, the rate will set out to test the resistance of the various hourly SMAs, which are located near the 1.1770 mark. However, it is most likely that the resistance of the simple moving averages will be passed.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD recovers slightly

Weak UK and strong US fundamentals on Tuesday resulted in a 108-pip fall of the GBP/USD exchange rate within six hours. As a result, the Pound fell down to the 1.2852 mark, but subsequently remained relatively stable slightly above 1.2860.

Strongly bearish technical indicators suggest that a rebound should occur in this session. The nearest resistance is the weekly S2 at 1.2887; this level, however, should be breached without any hindrance.

It is expected that the rate will trade in the 1.2900/40 area by Thursday morning if no surprising fundamentals or events shake the market tremendously. In case the Pound is pressured to the downside, losses should be limited circa 1.2840.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY moves above weekly R1

Following a breach of the upper line of the junior channel, the US Dollar continued to appreciate against the Yen near the weekly R1. Further potential upwards was strengthened by solid data mid-session that resulted in a surge up to the 110.80 mark.

Subsequently, the rate resumed its up-trend until early morning when the lack of market volatility guided the Greenback sideways.

This change in sentiment together with worsening technical indicators demonstrate that the rate is likely to fall today, possibly seeking to retrace from the upper channel line circa 110.00. The 55– and 200-hour SMAs are located near this area.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD reaches 1.1790 level

The EUR/USD currency exchange rate continues to trade in accordance with the medium term descending channel pattern, which is heading towards a large scale pattern’s support line.

Most recently the pair reached the resistance of a junior channel up pattern, which was supported by the weekly PP near the 1.1790 mark. As a result of the encounter, the rate began to decline, and during the morning hours of Thursday’s trading it had already passed the support of the 100 and 200-hour SMAs at the 1.1770 level.

It can be expected that by the end of the day the pair will continue to fall, as it faces the support of the 55-hour SMA at 1.1745, which might slow down the decline.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD surpasses 1.2880

Despite edging higher in the wake of solid earnings data, the Pound failed to sustain its upward momentum on Wednesday and returned near the 1.2850 mark—a level already proven to be a strong support.

The rate managed to accelerate in the second half of the session and push through the weekly S2 and the 55-hour SMA at 1.2885.

By and large, the Pound is expected to appreciate against the Greenback today, setting the weekly and monthly S1s as a near-term target. Reinforced by the 100-hour SMA, this area could be a possible stopping point.

Meanwhile, weak fundamentals may guide the pair back to 1.2850.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY falls through SMAs

After reaching the 111.00 mark early on Wednesday, the US Dollar plunged for the remaining session. As a result, the rate breached the weekly R1 and all three SMAs and reached the 109.60 area this morning.

The above fall set trend indicators in the strongly bearish territory, demonstrating that further momentum downwards may still occur. The failure to move above the 200-hour SMA should work as a confirmation that the rate is set to fall.

Nevertheless, this movement south has allayed slightly near the weekly PP. It is therefore expected that the rate remains above the given line and might even try to return near the weekly R1.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD rebounds against 1,270 level

The yellow metal bounced off the support cluster just below the 1,270 mark, as it was expected on Thursday morning. As a result of the rebound, the pair broke the medium term channel down pattern.

On Thursday morning the possible borders of a narrow ranged channel up pattern were spotted. However, it is most likely that the channel is just a representation of the first move in the borders of another medium term pattern.

Although, a forecast for Thursday can be made easily. The metal is most likely going to surge up to the 1,292.91 level, where the next notable resistance level is located at. If it is broken, the commodity price might reach the 1,300 mark.