Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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72
Gold continues to rebound


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"Looks like people are ready to buy gold below $1,200 and it is sort of a psychological level. Think people got confounded after Friday's move and the short ones are buying back now."
- Yuichi Ikemizu, Standard Bank (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
During the early hours of Monday's trading session the yellow metal's price had surged above the 1,210 mark, as the bullion continued the course of regaining its losses. The commodity price managed to pass a resistance cluster just below the 1,210 level, and the metal faced only the weekly PP at 1,211.87. The weekly PP is the last resistance level before the 1,219.20 mark, where the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level is located at. Due to these factors combined, it is expected that the cluster below will provide enough support to push the metal's price higher.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders are bullish on the metal, as 52% of open SWFX positions are long. In addition, 60% of trader set up orders are set to buy the bullion.


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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD retreats below 1.0650 level

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"The pair is facing an increasingly volatile week ahead as the US Fed gets ready to deliver their verdict on rate hikes."
- Steven Knight, Blackwell Global (based on investing.com)


Pair's Outlook
During the early hours of Tuesday's trading session the common European currency retreated against the US Dollar. The fall of the currency exchange rate has been stopped by the combined support of the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0639 and the monthly pivot points at 1.0633. From the upside the rate is being pressured by the 100-day SMA at 1.0654. From a technical perspective it can be seen that the rate is gathering pressure before a larger move. That is consistent with the fact that the Federal Reserve short term rate is about to be revealed.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 53% of open positions are short on Tuesday. Meanwhile, 51% of trader set up orders are set to sell the Euro.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD falls over Brexit concerns

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"I definitely see sterling as vulnerable after Article 50 is triggered because there is a significant risk that when the negotiations start with the EU, the EU could certainly play quite a difficult hand for the UK to respond to."
– Jane Foley, Rabobank (based on Business Recorder)


Pair's Outlook
On Monday, the monthly S1 prevented British Pound from appreciating further, resulting in another spark of bearish momentum earlier today. Investors swiftly sold the Sterling amid latest news that Article 50 could be triggered by the end of the month. Nevertheless, the tough demand cluster circa 1.21, formed by the monthly S2, the weekly S1 and the lower Bollinger band, is expected to limit today's losses. Moreover, a close under 1.2150 implies that more weakness this week could follow, leading to a drop even under 1.20, rather than the retest of the trend-line around 1.24. Technical indicators are also in favour of the negative outcome today.

Traders' Sentiment
Today 66% of traders are long the Pound (previously 69%), whereas all pending orders are equally divided between the buy and the sell ones.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY retests channel's resistance

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"The latest rise in Treasury yields is underpinning the dollar, but it is a wait-and-see mood that is mostly prevailing in the market ahead of the Fed's decision."
– Barclays (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
The USD/JPY currency pair behaved in accordance with expectations yesterday, being that it managed to remain above the immediate support area and avoid substantial gains. Nevertheless, the pair remains close to its ascending channel's upper border; at this point positive US fundamental could trigger an upside breach, with the resistance around 115.60 expected to prevent the Buck from edging further up. Disappointment in the data, on the other hand, is to force the US Dollar to erase most if not all gains against the Yen today. According to technical studies the bullish momentum is to prevail, while we still believe the channel's resistance is to remain intact.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 59% of traders holding long positions today (previously 55%). Meanwhile, the share of sell orders inched up from 52 to 56%.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
Gold remains near 1,200 mark

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"At this moment, an interest rate hike will not be a surprise, so any overreaction (to a hike in rates) is unlikely."
- Mark To, Wing Fung Financial Group (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
During the previous trading session the bullion failed to move even higher, as the commodity price has retreated back to the 1,200 level, where it remained rather flat on Tuesday morning. However, the bullion's price was positioned to fall, as the closest support level was located at the 1,186.87 mark, where the weekly S1 is located at. In addition, the weekly S1 is strengthened by the lower Bollinger band, which was located at 1,187.74. Moreover, a decline of the price is likely because the 100-day SMA is providing resistance just above the price, as it is located at the 1,205.63 level.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders have not changed their opinion, as 52% of open positions are long. Meanwhile, 69% of trader set up orders are set to buy the bullion.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD near 1.06 mark on Wednesday

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"The exchange rate is more or less the result of the monetary policies and the different cyclical positions on both sides of the Atlantic."
– Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank (based on Bloomberg)


Pair's Outlook
On Wednesday morning the common European currency was squeezed in by two simple moving averages against the US Dollar just above the 1.06 level. The 20-day SMA was providing support from the downside at 1.0604 level, and the 55-day SMA was putting up resistance to the currency exchange rate at 1.0621 level. It is most likely that the support level will be passed and the rate will continue lower to the first weekly support level, which is located at the 1.0566 mark. Such a move would be consistent with the Federal Reserve announcing a rate hike later in the day.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX trader sentiment remains bearish, as 54% of all open positions remain short. Meanwhile, 58% of trader set up orders are set to sell the Euro.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
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72
GBP/USD in limbo around 1.22 ahead of Fed Minutes

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"The fact that the GBP now appears cheap is insufficient to sustain a credible recovery by the currency at this stage. We recommend selling sterling on any temporary rally triggered by a shift in market focus. We maintain our target for EUR/GBP close to 0.90 and GBP/USD well below 1.20 in Q3."
– SEB Bank (based on PoundSterlingLive)


Pair's Outlook
The GBP/USD pair was close to touching the 1.21 mark on Tuesday, the lowest level in two months; however, it was able to stabilise above the 1.2150 mark. A sharp rebound was registered earlier today, but the cause of it is USD weakness rather than GBP strength, with US Treasury yields weighing on the US currency. A lot can change after Fed's Minutes are released, which is the main market driver today. First of all, the Cable risks falling under 1.21, should the Fed deliver on a rate hike and provide insight concerning future ones this year. On the other hand, any disappointment would help the Pound regain some ground, with the 1.23 easily seen retaken.

Traders' Sentiment
Bullish traders' sentiment grew stronger, as now 68% of all open positions are long. The share of buy orders edged up from 50 to 56%.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY: downside risks persist

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"I think the dollar might have trouble above the 115 level today, with Japanese exporters still seeking to sell above it ahead of the end of the Japanese fiscal year this month."
– Kaneo Ogino, Global-info Co. (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
Strong PPI was insufficient to cause any substantial volatility on Tuesday, but the USD/JPY pair still remained relatively unchanged for the third consecutive day. Some signs suggest the US Dollar is to strengthen again, such as the technical indicators—they are giving strong bullish signals. A possible rate hike today also suggests the Buck could post gains, however, that implies the ascending channel pattern is likely to be broken to the upside. From the technical perspective a plunge would be more probable, as that would preserve the pattern and an eventual retest of the up-trend circa 113.00, where the USD could receive sufficient momentum to pierce the two-year down-trend.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 53% of traders holding long positions (previously 59%), while only 52% of all pending orders are to acquire the Greenback.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
Gold almost flat near 1,200 mark

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"We do not think much will change throughout much of Wednesday ahead of the Fed rate decision and policy statement."
– Edward Meri, INTL FCStone (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
During the early hours of Wednesday's trading session the yellow metal's price fluctuated near the 1,200 mark. This tendency was established already on Tuesday morning, as the markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to announce its rate decision. The markets are expecting the Fed to hike the rate by 0.25%, and that would cause the US Dollar to strengthen, which would force the metal's price to fall. From a technical analysis perspective the commodity price is already positioned to fall down to the 1,186.87 level, where the closest support is located at.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders have not changed their opinion at all, as 52% of open positions remain long, and 69% of trader set up orders are set to buy the metal.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD trades below 1.0750 mark

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"The Fed's outlook hasn't changed much from where they were in December, but the markets had gone overboard with rate hike expectations."
– Norihiro Fujito, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. (based on Bloomberg)


Pair's Outlook
During the early hours of Thursday's trading session the common European currency was consolidating against the US Dollar, as the rate moved slightly lower. First of all it has to be noted that the pair jumped on the Federal Reserve rate announcement, breaking a strong resistance cluster, which kept the pair lower previously. Moreover, the currency exchange rate broke the resistance of a long term descending channel. The jump stopped at the weekly R1, which is located at the 1.0740 level. In face of this resistance the pair bounced off and began to consolidation. It is most likely that the rate will fall throughout the day before setting a new course in the near future.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are bearish on the pair, as 56% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, 64% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD in limbo around 1.23

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"Data, politics and widening yield spreads should override rising short positioning as GBP/USD slides towards 1.20, if not 1.1850, even though broader range trading is likely to remain."
– Westpac (based on FXStreet)


Pair's Outlook
The psychological 1.2150 mark once again successfully provided strong support, causing the Cable to rebound and put the 1.23 major level to the test yesterday. However, the pair was reluctant to maintain trade above 1.23, suggesting that a bearish correction could occur today. The BoE's meeting results could be negative for the Pound today, in which case most of yesterdays gains risk getting erased. Technical indicators are also in favour of the bearish scenario; on the other hand, the Sterling is seen taking another step towards the down-trend at 1.2450 if the BoE is hawkish today. We maintain a relatively positive outlook, with the trend-line expected to be reconfirmed in the near future.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 70% of traders holding long positions today (previously 68%), while the share of purchase orders inched up 56 to 65%.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY swims in proximity to 113.00 again

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"After a massive buildup in long positions earlier this week, currencies are in full reversal mode, with the dollar falling aggressively."
– Cambridge Global Payments (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
Even though the Fed raised rates on Wednesday, both inflation and labour market showed improvements, the US Dollar still plummeted on a cautious Fed stance. Against the Yen a nearly 140-pip loss was registered, but from the technical perspective this was anticipated. The decline only confirmed the ascending channel pattern's resistance line, allowing the pair to cover most of the distance towards retesting the lower boundary. The monthly PP and the 100-day SMA is now the only obstacle on the Buck's path, which is expected to be crossed today. However, a drop under 113.00 is doubtful just yet, but is required for the up-trend to be reconfirmed this week.

Traders' Sentiment
Now 58% of traders are long the US Dollar (previously 53%), but 55% of all pending orders are to sell it, compared to 48% on Wednesday.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
Gold approaches 1,230 level on Thursday


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"Yellen reiterated that future rate increases would be 'gradual', with this key word bestowing a dovish tone to the outlook."
– Edward Meri, INTL FCStone (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

On Thursday morning the yellow metal's price continued to score gains in the aftermath of the jump, which occurred on the Federal Funds rate increase on Wednesday. Although, the commodity price has run into the resistance of the weekly R1, which is located at the 1,228.89 level. It is highly possible that a consolidation of positions will occur, as traders take profits. However, the decline of the price is unlikely to fall lower than the 1,220 mark, near which the 20-day SMA and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level are located at. Due to that reason it can be assumed that the pair will rebound against the mentioned support levels.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders are bullish on the metal, as 53% of open positions are long on Thursday. In addition, 68% of trader set up orders are to buy.


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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD reaches above 1.0750

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"Fundamentally, too, the euro zone isn't as fragile as many English-speaking commentators have suggested. Pro-euro sentiment is stable in the currency area's biggest countries."
– Leonid Bershidsky, Bloomberg View


Pair's Outlook
During the early hours of Friday's trading session the common European currency's surge against the US Dollar was stopped by the resistance put up by the upper Bollinger band, which was located at the 1.0786 level. As a result the rate was in a retreat. However, the retreat is likely going to be short lived. As the upper Bollinger band moves higher, the currency exchange rate will set its course to the weekly R2, which is located at 1.0806. There the pair might stop for a while, as the weekly R2 is strengthened by the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0826.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are bearish on the pair, as 61% of open positions are short, and 56% of set up orders are to sell.


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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD stable above 1.23

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"The rally could stall here this week but if GBP/USD breaks above 1.2400 on Friday, we could see an extension to 1.25."
– Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management (based on PoundSterlingLive)


Pair's Outlook
The British Pound was able to post more gains against the US Dollar on Thursday, ultimately closing at a fresh two-week high of 1.2363. The Cable's volatility was limited by the resistance around 1.2370, formed by the weekly R2 and the 55-day SMA. This tough area is likely to prevent the Sterling from appreciating again today, being a minor setback on the pair's path towards retesting the down-trend around 1.2450. Nevertheless, a bearish development is anticipated today, but with the exchange rate retaining position above the 1.23 mark. Technical studies are now able to confirm the possibility of the negative for the Pound outcome.

Traders' Sentiment
Market sentiment remains strongly bullish, namely at 68%, but the number of purchase orders declined from 65 to 53% over the day.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY stuck between 113.15 and 113.75

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"Overall, I think the dollar will continue to be under some pressure for a period of time in which the market has to digest what the Fed is saying."
– Ron Waliczek, INTL FC Stone (based on Business Recorder)


Pair's Outlook
The US Dollar managed to avoid more weakness, remaining relatively unchanged against the Japanese Yen yesterday. The two immediate support clusters were strong enough to limit the losses on Thursday, but at least one of them is expected to give in in the near future. As a result, the USD/JPY pair is to drop under 113.00, leaving the ascending channel's support line to trigger a U-turn. Moreover, a rebound from this up-trend would reconfirm the channel pattern and provide sufficient bullish momentum to climb back to 115.00 and eventually breach that psychological resistance.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 60% of all open positions being long today, compared to 58% on Thursday. At the same time, the portion of orders to acquire the US Dollar added 10% points. The orders now take up 55% of the market.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
Gold remains near 1,225 level on Friday

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"What's happening now is just an inverse trade against the dollar."
– Jiang Shu, Shandong Gold Group (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
On Friday morning the yellow metal's price remained rather unchanged, as the bullion fluctuated just above the 1,225 mark. Previously, during Thursday's trading session the bullion extended the gains, which it scored on the Federal Reserve's rate hike. However, at the 1,233.59 mark the bullion encountered the resistance of a medium term descending channel, which proved strong enough to cause a minor decline in the commodity price. It is most likely that the bullion will make another attempt to break higher, as on Friday morning the decline has stopped, and the yellow metal has begun to approach the weekly R1, which is located at the 1,228.89 level.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are almost neutral, as 51% of open positions are long. Meanwhile, 66% of trader set up orders are to buy.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD remains below monthly resistance

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"The euro lost a bit of its topside momentum as the French election risk is still a key concern for EUR."
– Stephan Innes, Market Pulse (based on investing.com)


Pair's Outlook
During the early hours of Monday's trading session the common European currency once more attempted to break higher against the Greenback. Previously, during Friday's trading session the currency pair failed to break through the resistance put up by the monthly R1, which is located at the 1.0772 level. It is most likely that the resistance will be broken soon, as the rate has moved and traded above it already more than once. In that case the pair would most likely surge to the next notable resistance level, as the weekly R1 is located at the 1.0814 level.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 59% of trader open positions are short, and 59% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD in limbo between 55 and 100-day SMAs

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"This [the overnight high] coupled with the strong daily closing suggest further upwards pressure and a daily closing above 1.2370 would indicate that GBP has moved into a bullish phase (with an immediate target of 1.2500)."
– UOB Group (based on PoundSterlingLive)

Pair's Outlook
The Cable managed to unexpectedly recover from its intraday low on Friday, ultimately ending trade in the green zone. Moreover, the British Pound was able to breach the immediate resistance, but with gains unable to climb over the 1.24 major level, where psychological resistance was strong. Friday's rally only confirmed the overall outlook, with the GBP/USD pair now being one step closer to reaching its main goal, namely the nine-month down-trend. The final obstacle ahead of this target is the 100-day SMA, which provides resistance circa 1.2415, but technical studies are unable to confirm the possibility of another positive outcome.

Traders' Sentiment
There are still 68% of traders being long the Sterling today, while all pending orders are now equally divided between buy and sell ones.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY on the edge of breaking channel pattern


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"There will likely be a two month hiatus before the next overt signalling on a Fed rate hike, enough of a time lag not to immediately undermine the favourable risk and carry environment."
– Alan Ruskin, Deutsche (based on Business Recorder)


Pair's Outlook
The Greenback suffered another loss on Friday, edging 60 pips lower, thus, providing the ascending channel's lower boundary with an additional confirmation. However, the USD/JPY pair remains under pressure and now risks breaking the pattern to the downside. The plunge could be severe, as the nearest significant area to reverse polarity rests only under 112.00. Even though technical indicators are unable to confirm the possibility of the positive outcome, from the technical perspective this outcome is more likely. The monthly PP and the 100-day SMA form immediate resistance around 113.20.

Traders' Sentiment
Bears retreated over the weekend, as now 56% of all open positions are long (previously 60%). At the same time, the number of orders to sell the US Dollar edged up from 55 to 47%.

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