Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
Euro finds support

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"Despite the sell-off, traders say they prefer to be long USD on a selective basis, and will reset positions at better levels."
- Dennis Pettit, Bloomberg


Pair's Outlook
The common European currency trades against the US Dollar just as forecasted yesterday, as the currency exchange rate fell down to the weekly PP, which is located at the 1.0582 level. There the pair found support on Tuesday morning and began a rebound. The rate might surge up to the monthly PP, which is located at 1.0633. However, before that the currency pair faces the combined resistance of the 20 and 55-day SMAs, which are located respectively at 1.0598 and 1.0603 levels. On the other hand traders might watch for another attempt of the Buck to surge and pass the weekly PP.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain neutral bullish on the pair, as 51% of open positions are long on Tuesday. Meanwhile, 58% of trader open positions are to sell the Euro.


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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD poised for more weakness


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"The old floor at $1.24 now becomes important resistance, though, before it, we suspect a recovery from the current stretched condition will be more limited."
– BBH (based on FXStreet)


Pair's Outlook
The bearish momentum prevailed on Monday, causing the GBP/USD pair to fall under the monthly S1, thus, opening the door for new lows. In case bears continue pushing the British Pound further down, the lower Bollinger band, which is the closest support today, is expected to be ignored. As a result, the Cable risks piercing the 1.22 threshold, with attention then turning to the second significant support, namely the monthly S2 at 1.2119. However, the 1.2150 mark should also be considered as an interim demand level, as it showed some potential previously. Meanwhile, technical indicators keep giving mixed signals, unable to provide any clear sense of direction.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 62% of open long positions today (previously 61%), whereas 60% of 60% of all pending orders are to purchase the Sterling.


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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY to remain under 114.00

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"The dollar is not likely to gain further against the yen, with an expected range around 111 to 115 yen during March."
– BBH (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
The USD/JPY currency pair remained almost completely flat on Monday, unable to reclaim the 114.00 major level. The pair remains on the back foot, with the cluster around 113.30 representing the lower boundary of today's intraday trade and the cluster circa 114.60—the upper border. The Buck is expected to remain within this trading range, but with risks skewed to the downside, as the exchange rate recently jumped away from the ascending channel's upper boundary. Ultimately, a retest of the 112.30/00 area is expected, which would reconfirm the channel's support line. Technical studies, however, are unable to confirm either the positive or the negative scenario.

Traders' Sentiment
Today 61% of traders are long the Buck (previously 59%), while the share of buy orders slid from 56 to 54% during the last 24 hours.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
Gold reaches below 1,225 mark

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"We expect the precious metal to have a bumpy ride the rest of the week as we await further economic indicators from the U.S."
– Mihir Kapadia, Sun Global Investments (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
During the early hours of Tuesday's trading session the yellow metal had paused the decline, which occurred during Monday's trading. The bullion stopped just below the 1,225 level and attempted to regain some of its value. However the attempt failed, and the commodity price still remains positioned to fall to the 1,219.20 level, where the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level is located at. The Fibonacci retracement level is also supported by the weekly S1, which is located at 1,216.60 level.

Traders' Sentiment
For the third consecutive trading session SWFX traders remain 54% long regarding the bullion. In addition, 58% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD continues to decline

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"The euro has already survived a number of scares since its inception in 1999, with the political and economic elites proving willing to do whatever it takes to support the currency."
– Ian Wishart, Mira Rojanasakul and John Fraher, Bloomberg


Pair's Outlook
On early Wednesday morning the common European currency was slowly continuing its way lower against the US Dollar. The rate had finally broken free from the grip of the weekly PP at 1.0582, around which the currency exchange rate was fluctuating around for almost 48 hours. The currency pair is set to fall next to the weekly S1, which is located at 1.0533 level. It is most likely that the decline will occur gradually, as there are minor support levels, which have proven themselves to be strong enough to even change the direction of the rate for short periods of time.

Traders' Sentiment
For the third consecutive trading session SWFX traders remain neutral bullish, as 51% of open positions are long on Wednesday. Meanwhile, 61% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD risks extending losses

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"GBP is consequently one of the most attractive currencies to sell for an extension of the dollar's interest rate rally."
– JP Morgan (based on PoundSterlingLive)


Pair's Outlook
The Pound suffered once again yesterday, falling deeper down against the US Dollar. The relatively sharp bearish momentum has been prevailing for nearly two weeks in a row now when the Cable retested the down-trend at 1.2570, and is expected to remain in the markets today as well. The GBP/USD pair could then fall towards 1.2119, namely the monthly S2, even though a possibility of bulls taking over still exists, as technical studies retain mixed signals. Moreover, a disappointment in today's ADP Employment Change reading is likely to weaken the US Dollar, which would allow the Sterling to take the opportunity and recover some of previous two-week losses.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders' sentiment remains bullish at 62%, but the portion of purchase orders declined over the day, namely from 60 to 54%.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY: no significant developments expected


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"With attention on whether the Fed can conduct three hikes this year, Friday's jobs data will provide important cues as to whether an inflation-inducing wage increase is taking place."
– IG Securities (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
On Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair remained relatively unchanged again, unable to reclaim the 114.00 major level. Even if this mark is overcome, the Buck is still unlikely to appreciate beyond 114.50, as the ascending channel's resistance line is located there, also bolstered by the 55-day SMA, the monthly R1 and the upper Bollinger band. Technical indicators are also in favour of the positive outcome, but today's ADP Employment data could turn the tide for the US Dollar, causing it to fall to around 113.30. A flat outcome would also not be a surprise, as the main focus is still on Friday's NFP data this week.

Traders' Sentiment

Today 60% of all open positions are long, compared to 61% on Tuesday. At the same time, the number of orders to purchase the Greenback inched up from 54 to 57%.


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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD passes support level near 1.0530 mark

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"Thanks to the strongest increase in private payrolls since April 2014, the U.S. dollar extended its gains against all of the major currencies."
- Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management (investing.com)


Pair's Outlook
On Thursday morning the common European currency continued to depreciate against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate passed another notable level of support. The currency pair had dropped below the weekly S1, which is located at 1.0533 level and stopped the pair's fall during Wednesday's trading session. It is likely that the rate will fall to the lower Bollinger band, which was located at 1.0508 on Thursday morning. However, below that the closest cluster of support begins at 1.0446, where the weekly S2 is located at.

Traders' Sentiment

For the fourth consecutive trading session SWFX traders remain neutral bullish on the pair, as 51% of open positions are long. In addition, trader set up orders are identical, as 51% of orders are set to buy the Euro.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD keeps climbing down the ladder

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"Rising US yields continue to push spreads over gilts towards 2016 lows and will likely drive GBP/USD towards 1.20, if not 1.1850, even though broader range trading is likely to remain."
– Westpac (based on FXStreet)


Pair's Outlook
Wednesday was another negative day for the British currency, being that it edged lower against the Buck again. This time the 1.22 threshold has been crossed, meaning the Cable is one step closer to reaching the 1.1947 level—the lowest in more than ten years. Even though the lower Bollinger band and the monthly S2 now represent immediate support around 1.2130, this area is unlikely to hold the GBP/USD pair afloat for long, namely it is expected to remain intact only today. Meanwhile, technical indicators remain unchanged, with the weekly signals still bearish.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders keep getting more bullish towards the Sterling, as now 65% of all open positions are long, compared to 61% on Monday. The portion of buy orders is also relatively large, taking up 61% of the market.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD keeps climbing down the ladder

InE3kXQ.png


"Rising US yields continue to push spreads over gilts towards 2016 lows and will likely drive GBP/USD towards 1.20, if not 1.1850, even though broader range trading is likely to remain."
– Westpac (based on FXStreet)


Pair's Outlook
Wednesday was another negative day for the British currency, being that it edged lower against the Buck again. This time the 1.22 threshold has been crossed, meaning the Cable is one step closer to reaching the 1.1947 level—the lowest in more than ten years. Even though the lower Bollinger band and the monthly S2 now represent immediate support around 1.2130, this area is unlikely to hold the GBP/USD pair afloat for long, namely it is expected to remain intact only today. Meanwhile, technical indicators remain unchanged, with the weekly signals still bearish.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders keep getting more bullish towards the Sterling, as now 65% of all open positions are long, compared to 61% on Monday. The portion of buy orders is also relatively large, taking up 61% of the market.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY retests channel's resistance line

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"Historically the dollar hasn't fared well against reserve currencies like the euro or yen or the pound during times of U.S.-led protectionism."
– Toronto-Dominion Bank (based on Bloomberg)


Pair's Outlook
A positive reading of the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change provided the US Dollar with a boost yesterday, allowing it to put the tough resistance around 114.60 to the test. Ultimately, the Buck closed with a 40-pip rally against the Yen, meaning that the ascending channel's resistance line remains intact. From the technical perspective the US Dollar should now undergo a bearish correction, with traders taking profit of the recent rallies; however, technical indicators suggest otherwise. Due to lack of strong market movers today, another positive development is possible, but with gains limited circa 114.75. The base case scenario is still the integrity of the channel's resistance line.

Traders' Sentiment
Today 55% of traders hold long positions (previously 60%), while 67% of all pending orders are to purchase the Greenback (up from 57%).

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
Gold reaches possible long term trend line

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"If the (nonfarm payroll) data does come in better than market expectations, it will drag gold prices further."
- Barnabas Gan, OCBC (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
During the early hours of Thursday's trading session the yellow metal's price slipped even further lower, as the price reached below the 1,205 level. However, the bullion managed to find support in a speculative and before the recent moves unconfirmed long term lower trend line of a large scale ascending channel pattern. Due to that reason traders should look at whether a proper rebound occurs, as from the upside there is a strong resistance cluster, which could keep the commodity price lower in the future sessions.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are neutral at the moment, as 50% of open positions are long. Although, 65% of trader set up orders are set to buy the bullion, and such a high level has not been seen for more than two months.


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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
Gold reaches possible long term trend line

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"If the (nonfarm payroll) data does come in better than market expectations, it will drag gold prices further."
- Barnabas Gan, OCBC (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
During the early hours of Thursday's trading session the yellow metal's price slipped even further lower, as the price reached below the 1,205 level. However, the bullion managed to find support in a speculative and before the recent moves unconfirmed long term lower trend line of a large scale ascending channel pattern. Due to that reason traders should look at whether a proper rebound occurs, as from the upside there is a strong resistance cluster, which could keep the commodity price lower in the future sessions.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are neutral at the moment, as 50% of open positions are long. Although, 65% of trader set up orders are set to buy the bullion, and such a high level has not been seen for more than two months.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD rebounds and trades near 1.06

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"Day two of our 48 hour run of heavy event risk is ahead. And, traders are no doubt hoping for more reaction to the March NFPs."
- John Kicklighter, Daily FX


Pair's Outlook
The common European currency traded near the 1.06 mark against the US Dollar on Friday morning. However, the rate showed signs of an upcoming retreat. The move higher was the throughout the week expected consolidation of the US Dollar, as the Greenback retreated. The jump of the rate was stopped by the upper trend line of the medium term descending channel, which is supported by the 55-day SMA at 1.0609 level. Due to that reason and the expected positive US fundamentals the rate is likely to decline during the day. However, the pair's decline will be hindered by the weekly PP at 1.0582.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are neutral on the pair, as 50% of open positions are long. Meanwhile, 58% of trader set up orders are set to sell the Euro.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD seen falling after US NFP

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"We judge that expectations for a very strong non-farm payrolls and wages is very high so that the risk of disappointment is high."
– Commonwealth Bank of Australia (based on Market Watch)


Pair's Outlook
The Cable managed to retain its position on Thursday, as the lack of potential market movers contributed to relatively flat trade. Today everything depends on the US NFP data, a positive reading of which is to spark more bearish momentum and is likely to cause a drop below the immediate support , namely the monthly S2 and the lower Bollinger band. Consequently, the channel's lower boundary around 1.20 might even be put to the test. Technical indicators also suggest the Sterling is to suffer another loss today, but in case the NFP data surprises with a weaker reading the 1.23 mark is expected to be the intraday ceiling.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 67% of all open positions being long today, compared to 65% previously. The number of order to acquire the British Pound dropped over the day, namely from 61 to 53%.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY sets eye on 116.00

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"The dollar has risen as U.S. Treasury yields went up this week, but there appears to be some resistance on the upside around the middle of the 115-yen level."
– Mizuho Securities (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
For the third consecutive day on Wednesday the US Dollar outperformed the Japanese Yen. The Buck itself overperformed, which caused the ascending channel's resistance line to be pierced. Consequently, the 115.00 mark was put to the test, but managed to contain the USD/JPY pair for the time being. However, a breach today is more than possible, as the upcoming NFP data is probably the most anticipated in comparison to all the readings in the last couple of years, as it would indicate whether Fed is to raise rates next week. A positive reading is to boost the Buck and could even push it beyond 116.00, while a disappointment might lead to a drop back to 113.00.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 56% of traders holding long positions today (previously 55%), whereas the share of buy orders slid from 67 to 54%.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
Gold reaches possible long term trend line


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"If the (nonfarm payroll) data does come in better than market expectations, it will drag gold prices further."
- Barnabas Gan, OCBC (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
During the early hours of Thursday's trading session the yellow metal's price slipped even further lower, as the price reached below the 1,205 level. However, the bullion managed to find support in a speculative and before the recent moves unconfirmed long term lower trend line of a large scale ascending channel pattern. Due to that reason traders should look at whether a proper rebound occurs, as from the upside there is a strong resistance cluster, which could keep the commodity price lower in the future sessions.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are neutral at the moment, as 50% of open positions are long. Although, 65% of trader set up orders are set to buy the bullion, and such a high level has not been seen for more than two months.


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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD surges above 1.07 mark

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"Following the ECB's policy review on Thursday, President Mario Draghi refused to speculate on the possibility of rate increases before quantitative easing ends."
- Tanvir Sandhu, Bloomberg


Pair's Outlook
Due to comments from the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, the common European currency jumped against the US Dollar in the recent trading sessions. The currency exchange rate already reached the new second weekly resistance level at 1.0718. The last time the rate was at such level was on February 6. As Mario Draghi is set to speak also on Monday, it is likely that the Euro would continue the surge. In such case the weekly S2 would be broken, and the rate would surge up to the monthly R1, which is located at 1.0772 level.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have become bearish regarding the pair, as 53% of open positions are short on Monday. Meanwhile, 55% of trader set up orders are set to sell the Euro.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD regains bullish momentum

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"I am bearish on the pound and I think it will be lower a year from now. Similarly, while the U.K. economy will not unravel due to Brexit, I would expect the process to take a toll on growth for many years to come."
– Erik Wiesman, MFS Investment Management (based on Bloomberg)


Pair's Outlook
Even though the US NFP data came out strong on Friday, the earnings growth still disappointed, bringing doubts over a March rate hike, thus, turning the tide on the Greenback's rally. As a result, the Cable traded flat that day, but began edging higher today amid a corrective decline in the US Treasury bond yields. Consequently, the GBP/USD pair now has the potential to reclaim the 1.22 major level, where the weekly pivot point is the nearest resistance. The 1.2250 is the next target, but is likely to remain out of reach, as the monthly S1 and the weekly R1 form another strong supply area there.

Traders' Sentiment
Bulls grew stronger over the weekend, as now 69% of all open positions are long, compared to 67% on Friday. At the same time, the portion of purchase orders barely changed, having risen from 53 to 54%.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY begins sliding down

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"We believe the USD/JPY will edge upward to the ¥115-120 level not in a straight line but with some fluctuation over the coming 3-6 months."
– Deutsche Bank (based on FXStreet)


Pair's Outlook
The Greenback failed to appreciate against the Japanese Yen on Friday, therefore, preserving the ascending channel's resistance line. The pair failed to reclaim the 115.00 major level, which suggests a possible retest of the channel's lower boundary within the next two weeks. Today the Buck is expected to weaken against the Yen, as the bearish momentum persists from the disappointment of Friday's earnings growth data. However, due to lack of any other market movers, the given pair could retain its position above the immediate demand area, namely the monthly R1 and the weekly PP around 114.63. Any slide further down is to be limited by the 55-day SMA circa 114.28.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 55% of traders holding long positions today (previously 56%), while 52% of all pending orders are to sell the US Dollar.


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