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Ryan Peterson

Trader
Jun 21, 2016
11
0
7
31
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Ryan Peterson

Trader
Jun 21, 2016
11
0
7
31
Daily report on June 29, 2016


Global equities and commodity prices gained on Wednesday as the market expected that policy makers will take actions to stabilize financial markets and national economies after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.


West Texas Intermediate increased more than 50 cents to $48.57 per barrel from the last settlement, while Brent crude inched up 0.4% to $49.59 per barrel. The number of crude oil barrels held in the US inventory by commercial firms is expected to have decreased by 2.3 million barrels last week, following a 0.9 million barrel contraction in the week before.


Asian stocks witnessed an advance today as the gains in crude oil supported commodity producers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.8% as the Topic index rallied 0.9% in Tokyo after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that he would mobilize all possible measures to curb the negative effects of the Brexit vote.


Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 102.480 per dollar after losing 0.7% on Tuesday. The US dollar index, measuring the strength of the greenback versus its major rivals, was seen up 0.13% , after falling 0.5% in the last session, amid worries that Brexit could cause a collapse in the world’s economic recovery.


The sterling reversed into losses, hitting around $1.3299 after the 0.9% rise in the previous trading session. Meanwhile, the Euro stayed steady at $1.1064 as French President Hollande stated yesterday that the currency was not put into difficulty by Britain’s plans to leave the EU.


On the back of the Brexit referendum, traders are assigning a 10.5% probability of a rate cut in September or November by the Federal Reserve, according to the latest readings on the CME's Fed Watch tracker. The percentage of traders estimating an increase before the end of the year was only 17.1%, while 0% expect a November’s hike.


Gold remained flat as the markets seemed to be stabilizing after the initial rout on Friday and Monday. The commodity was last trading near the $1320 mark after hitting highs at $1358.


Technicals


USDJPY

The Japanese Yen has gained against its American counterpart to around 102.480 per dollar today. The price has crossed below the 10-day moving average, signaling downward pressure on the currency pair USDJPY. A bearish market is also indicated by the RSI (14) currently below 50 and heading down. The trend indicator has been suggesting short positions since the appearance of the red arrow. The pair is likely to retest the 5-day low at 101.152 soon.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 102.361 to 101.152 valid until 20:00 June 30, 2016


EURGBP

EURGBP has been moving cautiously recently after the significant spike from 0.75993 last week, supported by the short-term and long-term EMAs. RSI is hovering at level 67, indicating that the pair is about to enter the overbought territory. More gains are anticipated for the pair as seen in the green parabolics sar movement below the price chart.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 0.83033 to 0.83811 valid until 19:00, June 30, 2016


AUDNZD

AUDNZD has been moving sideways around the area of Fibonacci retracement 23.6% after falling deeply from the one-month high of 1.07375. Neither bull nor bear is dominating the market as RSI is currently around the average while the trend indicator manifests new and varying signals constantly. However, the support of 1.04468 has been hit. Hence, the pair is expected to gain slightly for the rest of the day, to hit the resistance at around 1.04850.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1.04613 to 1.05385 valid until 20:00 June 30, 2016


SILVER

Silver is on track to gain to as high as $18.298. The commodity is about to enter the overbought zone as RSI is lingering near the 70 threshold. The ADX is at level 23 currently, and DI+ (green line) has crossed DI- (red line) and is heading up, suggesting a continuous up-move for the price. The advance is expected to keep going, with the price testing the two-year peak of 18.298 soon. The trend indicator is urging long orders.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 17.930 to 18.298 valid until 18:00 June 30, 2016


BRENT

Brent crude price has recovered from the one-month bottom of $47.21 to as high as $49.48 per barrel. ADX is standing at 27; the DI+ (green line) is moving far above the DI- (red line) and heading up, signaling strong bullishness in the market. RSI has just confirmed the uptrend by moving past 50. It is anticipated that the price will go on with the current up-move, and head for the highest level since June 10 at $51.74.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 49.49 to 51.14 valid until 20:00 June 30, 2016


NASDAQ

NASDAQ extended its recovery to reach 4291.00 after testing the four-month low of 4166.83 on Monday. The bullish trend seems strong as seen in the ADX staying at level 30, along with DI+ (green line) lingering above DI- (red line). With the support of the short-term moving average below, the index is expected to continue its gains to test the resistance level at 4350.08, formed at the beginning of May.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 4290.00 to 4350.08 valid until 20:00 June 30, 2016
 

Ryan Peterson

Trader
Jun 21, 2016
11
0
7
31
Daily Report on July 01, 2016

In a speech in London overnight, the Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney stated that more stimulus to the UK economy may be deployed over this summer after the shock decision by voters to leave the European Union last Friday. The UK benchmark rate, which has been kept stable at 0.5% in the last seven years, is expected to be cut in BOE’s July or August meeting.

The British pound was on the defensive in the early Asian trading session today, after plunging more than 1% against the US dollar to 1.32044 late yesterday. The UK 10-year bond yield, meanwhile, dropped to a record low of 0.882%.

The KOF Economic Research Agency on Thursday released its monthly survey on Swiss economy. The Barometer for June came in at 102.4, compared with 101.8 in the preceding period. This indicator continued to stay above its historical average, indicating that the nation’s economy is still in a stable condition.

On a similar note, the Canadian economy is also reporting positive signals which can be seen in data reported recently. The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in April rose for the first time after declining in the two preceeding months. The latest report showed an increase of 0.1% in monthly growth, led by gains in manufacturing, utilities and the public sector.

The commodity markets on the first day of July marked some gains. Gold, still held its steam - rising to $1329.95/oz - 1.3% higher than its previous close. The global oil benchmark, Brent, also ticked up to $50.11/barrel, in comparison with the last settlement of $49.83/barrel on the day before.

The trading session ahead could be marked by thin trading that could cause some sharp moves as position squaring and low volumes increase volatility ahead of the 4th of July Independence Day Holiday in the US.

Technicals

USDCHF
The greenback is extending its losses against the swissie since the last several days, leading the pair USDCHF to fall back below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The stochastic chart shows that the %K line (blue line) has crossed over the %D line (read line). As the bullish power dies down, the pair USDCHF is likely to get out of the overbought territory.

Trade suggestion
Sell stop at 0.97493, Stop loss at 0.97762, Take profit at 0.97100

EURJPY
EURJPY has been stuck in a narrow up channel after hitting a record low of 109.398 one week earlier. RSI (14) hovers around the average point, indicating that the market is stepping cautiously. The pair is expeced to continue its current up move for a while as the two moving averages are still under the price.

Trade suggestion
Buy limit at 113.889, Stop loss at 113.059, Take profit at 115.291

AUDNZD
AUDNZD has formed a rectangular sideways channel on the price chart and is still bouncing between 1.05122 and 1.04126. The Stochastic chart indicates that the pair has already approached the oversold territory. Yet a reversal into an uptrend is not likely to occur in the near-term as the %K line and %D line show no signals of crossing. The trend indicator suggests a short position on this pair via a red arrow above the price chart.

Trade suggestion
Sell stop at 1.04293, Stop loss at 1.04449, Take profit at 1.04147

WTI
WTI is on course to climb higher from a low of 4845 formed late yesterday. RSI (14) is struggling above the average level, implying that bulls are in an attempt to hold their momentum against the bear. The two MAs have crossed the price chart, with the long-term SMA 21 firmly under the price chart. This is evidence of an up-move. The price may inch up continuously, heading up to test the firm resistance of 50.58.

Trade suggestion
Buy stop at 49.03, Stop loss at 48.53, Take profit at 49.85

COPPER
The trend indicator has suggested long positions on COPPER since June 20. Up to now, the commodity has witnessed a substantial move of 132 pips. Hence, a reversal into a downtrend is forecast to happen in the near future. Also, ADX (14) has fallen to the reading of 24.5955, along with a shrinking distance between the DI- and DI+. This means that the bull is getting exhausted. The metal is likely to pull back soon.

Trade suggestion
Sell stop at 2.1885, Stop loss at 2.2051, Take profit at 2.1571

DAX
DAX is bouncing back up after testing the support of 9206.08 a few days ago. ADX (14) is at 26.8073, combined with DI+ staying far from DI-. This indicates that the current move is quite strong. However, the index is lingering around 9774.82, a solid area in the price chart. Some consolidation may occur in the near term and the price is expected to be supported by the upward pressure from the two MA's to break through this zone.

Trade suggestion
Buy stop at 9799.91, Stop loss at 9690.68, Take profit at 9924.57