Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by katetrades, Feb 13, 2013.

  1. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 12, 2018)

    USD

    The US dollar was dragged lower by downbeat PPI data, as both headline and core readings posted 0.1% declines instead of the estimated 0.2% gains. This could mean a weaker CPI for the same month, which would reinforce lower inflation expectations and rate hike odds. Headline CPI could show a 0.1% uptick while the core reading could be up by 0.2%. Retail sales data is also due today and stronger spending figures are eyed.

    EUR

    The euro got a strong boost from the ECB minutes as policymakers dropped more tightening hints. In particular, the minutes suggested a change in forward guidance shared by members of the committee and a shift in their inflation outlook on expectations that price pressures would eventually take hold. Italian retail sales and euro zone industrial production also beat expectations. French final CPI and Italian industrial production numbers are due next.

    GBP

    The pound had a mixed round as it advanced to the dollar but slid to the euro and consolidated against most of its peers. There were no major reports out of the UK economy yesterday while today has none on tap as well.

    CHF

    The franc trailed the euro after the release of the ECB minutes as the odds of tightening in the region meant less need for the SNB to keep the franc weak. Also, a higher EUR/CHF exchange rate would likely be positive for trade and inflation in Switzerland. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today.

    JPY

    The yen gave up ground on risk-taking but managed to outpace the dollar. Japan's leading indicators ticked up from 106.5% to 108.6% but the current account surplus fell short of estimates. The Economy Watchers Sentiment index is due next and an uptick from 55.1 to 55.2 is expected.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Kiwi was one of the bigger winners of the day as risk-taking kicked in. The Aussie lagged behind as weaker gold prices came into play while the Loonie failed to follow the oil price rallies on NAFTA concerns. China's trade balance turned out stronger than expected, lifting the Aussie and Kiwi on stronger demand expectations.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  2. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 16, 2018)

    USD

    The dollar was down in the dumps as banks were closed on a holiday and the usual stock market rallies weren't there to buoy the currency higher. Only the Empire State manufacturing index is due today and a gain from 18.0 to 18.5 is expected. Stronger than expected results, combined with positive earnings data, could lead to a pickup for the dollar.

    EUR

    The euro was one of the top performers in recent sessions thanks to hawkish commentary from ECB official Hansson. He hinted that the central bank could end bond purchases in September and that currency appreciation won't hurt their inflation outlook. The region's trade balance also came in better than expected while medium-tier reports like German final CPI and Italian trade balance are lined up today.

    GBP

    The pound also scored decent gains and shrugged off dovish remarks from a BOE official, as well as the collapse of Carillion. There were no major reports out of the UK then while today has inflation numbers due. Headline CPI could dip from 3.1% to 3.0% while the core reading could fall from 2.6% to 2.7%, probably weighing on tightening hopes.

    CHF

    The franc was also one of the stronger currencies as it trailed the euro and took advantage of dollar weakness. There were no major reports out of Switzerland then while today has a speech by SNB head Jordan. Any hint of potential intervention could keep a lid on franc gains.

    JPY

    The yen was able to advance against the dollar but gave up ground to most of its peers. BOJ Governor Kuroda reiterated their pledge to conduct easing but bulls seem unconvinced since the central bank reduced its JGB purchases recently. Tertiary industry activity data is due next, then core machinery orders data is due tomorrow.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Loonie also strengthened against most of its peers as some traders held out hopes for a BOC hike this week. Crude oil also kept advancing despite rising US output expectations. In Australia, new motor vehicle sales picked up by 4.5%. New Zealand has its GDT auction coming up.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  3. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 17, 2018)

    USD

    The US dollar continued to tumble across the board on concerns about a potential government shutdown and weaker performance in energy stocks. The Empire State manufacturing index fell from 18.0 to 17.7 instead of improving to 18.5. Today has the industrial production and capacity utilization rates due. FOMC member Mester also has a speech lined up after the release of the Fed Beige Book.

    EUR

    The euro got hit by reports that German coalition talks once again failed but was able to regain ground when ECB members gave a few more hawkish remarks. The shared currency even shrugged off warnings that currency appreciation could dampen inflation. Final CPI readings are due next.

    GBP

    The pound was dragged slightly lower by downbeat CPI readings as the headline figure slumped from 3.1% to 3.0% as expected while the core CPI fell below expectations to 2.5%. RPI and HPI both beat expectations, though. There are no major reports due from the UK today but MPC member Saunders has a testimony lined up.

    CHF

    The franc was one of the top performers of the day as dollar weakness and a bit of risk-off vibes in the earlier sessions spurred demand. SNB head Jordan refrained from jawboning the currency in his latest speech as well.

    JPY

    The yen also took a lot of risk-off flows form the dollar despite weaker than expected PPI data. Core machinery orders, on the other hand, beat expectations with a 5.7% jump instead of the estimated 1.3% slide. There are no other reports due from Japan so market sentiment could push yen pairs around.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Loonie was one of the weakest currencies as crude oil slumped from its record highs while traders took some long positions off ahead of the BOC decision. A 0.25% rate hike is eyed but policymakers could stress that they would be cautious about future tightening. In New Zealand, the dairy auction yielded a 4.9% gain in prices while Australia reported a 1.8% gain in its Westpac consumer sentiment index.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  4. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 18, 2018)

    USD

    The US dollar was in a weak spot for the most part of the day but staged a late rally when Fed officials started sounding more upbeat and hawkish. The Fed Beige Book also indicated modest to moderate growth in 11 out of 12 Fed districts, with strong price pressures from most. FOMC member Mester expects more contribution from tax reform to growth while Fed official Evans shifted to a more optimistic tone. Building permits and housing starts are due next, along with the Philly Fed index.

    EUR

    The euro was weighed down by comments on how the currency's appreciation could dampen inflation and tightening odds. Final CPI readings were unchanged at 1.4% for the headline reading and 0.9% for the core figure. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today so ECB commentary could continue to influence the shared currency's direction.

    GBP

    The pound took advantage of euro weakness and was able to recover slightly against the commodity currencies despite the lack of top-tier data from the UK. Today has another empty economic calendar so market sentiment could push pound pairs around.

    CHF

    The franc had a mixed run but was mostly weaker to the higher-yielding currencies as risk-taking came into play. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, so sentiment and currency-specific action could drive the franc.

    JPY

    The yen took advantage of dollar weakness but gave up some of its gains later on. There were no reports out of Japan then while today has the revised industrial production numbers due, although analysts don't expect a change from the earlier 0.6% estimate. As with the franc, sentiment could be the main driver, along with dollar direction.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Loonie had a volatile run ahead of the BOC statement but eventually held its ground as Poloz and Wilkins reiterated their optimistic views. The central bank hiked by 0.25% but expressed concerns about NAFTA. Australia's employment change figure printed a 34.7K gain versus the estimated 13.2K increase. The previous reading enjoyed an upgrade from 61.6K to 63.6K. China has a bunch of major reports namely GDP, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment due.

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  5. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 19, 2018)

    USD

    The dollar lost ground to its peers once more as the threat of a government shutdown weighed on investor sentiment. Data also turned out mostly weaker than expected, with housing starts posing a huge drop from 1.30M to 1.19M as the weather-related demand was not sustained. Preliminary UoM consumer sentiment data and inflation expectations are due next, but the focus could be on the funding bill.

    EUR

    The euro gave up ground once more when the likelihood of a German coalition dropped. There were also no major reports out of the region and today only has the current account balance on tap, which suggests that political updates could determine the shared currency's direction. Failure by Merkel to strike a coalition could be bearish for the euro.

    GBP

    The pound held its ground against most of its counterparts despite the lack of top-tier data from the UK. Today has the retail sales report due and a 0.8% decline is eyed, erasing part of the earlier 1.1% increase. Stronger than expected data, however, could prove bullish for the pound.

    CHF

    The franc was the main beneficiary of risk-off action and dollar weakness, as well as the selloff in the euro. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, so sentiment could continue to push franc pairs around.

    JPY

    The yen also took advantage of dollar weakness but was slightly weaker to the commodity currencies. Japan's industrial production reading was revised down from 0.6% to 0.5% and there are no reports due today, leaving sentiment and bond yields as potential drivers for yen price action.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Aussie drew some support from better then expected jobs data but gave up some of its gains when China's data failed to impress. Most of the readings came in line with estimates, as fixed asset investment was unchanged at 7.2% instead of falling to 7.1% while industrial production ticked slightly higher. Canadian manufacturing sales is lined up next.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  6. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 22, 2018)

    USD


    The dollar is on weaker footing owing to the US government shutdown, which threatens to drag equities and bonds while it lasts. There are no major reports lined up for today and futures are pointing to a weak open for US markets as the dollar has also gapped down over the weekend.

    EUR

    The euro had a stronger open as German coalition talks had positive updates over the weekend. As it turned out, SPD is backing talks with Merkel but no agreement has been struck yet. Still, these could push the shared currency around over the next few days before euro zone PMIs and the ECB decision take the spotlight.

    GBP

    The pound held on to most of its gains from the previous week despite the 1.5% slump in retail sales and is eyeing the UK preliminary GDP report this week. Another major report lined up is the claimant count change and average earnings index, which would provide some clues on inflation and consumer spending. There are no major releases from the UK today.

    CHF

    The franc has been able to take advantage of dollar weakness despite the lack of top-tier data from Switzerland. SNB officials have been mum about currency intervention, so traders don't appear too wary of sudden shocks. There are still no reports due today so sentiment could keep pushing franc pairs around.

    JPY

    The yen has been supported thanks to dollar weakness but is behind overall to higher-yielding currencies as risk-taking is present. The BOJ decision is coming up tomorrow and yen traders might be looking to liquidate some of their positions ahead of an event risk.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    Comdolls have held their ground and continued to advance to the dollar as China's data still showed promise. Canadian wholesale sales data is due today and a 1.0% gain is eyed. Retail sales and CPI figures are lined up throughout the week and might influence BOC hike expectations as the central bank sounded optimistic in last week's announcement.

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  7. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 23, 2018)

    USD

    The US dollar caught a bid on reports that Congress passed another temporary funding measure to reopen the government. However, the lower-yielding currency barely held on to its gains as risk appetite took over. Only the Richmond manufacturing index is due today and a dip from 20 to 19 is eyed.

    EUR

    The euro was able to stand its ground as the SPD agreed to start coalition talks with Merkel's party. There were no reports from the euro zone on Monday's London session while today has the ZEW economic sentiment report. Germany could show a gain from 17.4 to 17.8 in its reading while the region could see a rise from 29.0 to 29.7.

    GBP

    The pound also carried on with its climb despite the lack of top-tier data as the government continued to make progress in its Brexit transition plans. UK public sector borrowing data is due next and a fall from 8.1 billion GBP to 4.2 billion GBP is eyed. The CBI industrial order expectations index is also due and a drop from 17 to 13 is expected.

    CHF

    The franc gave up some ground after SNB head Jordan mentioned that the currency is still overvalued despite the recent drop. Another SNB official Weber contended that the currency is highly valued but moving in the right direction. Apart from that, risk-taking has weighed on the Swiss currency as well. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

    JPY

    The yen is on edge ahead of the BOJ decision as some expect the central bank to take a more upbeat tune after their adjustment on long-term bond purchases earlier this month. However, BOJ head Kuroda has also previously reiterated their commitment to their aggressive easing program. In any case, yen pairs are expecting additional volatility during the announcement and presser.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The comdolls were big winners for the day thanks to risk-taking. The Aussie and Kiwi have already been on a tear for the most part of the day on upgraded growth forecasts by the IMF while the Loonie trailed behind as NAFTA concerns and a fall in crude oil lingered. Canadian wholesale sales also came in weaker than expected with a 0.7% gain versus the projected 1.0% uptick. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.

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  8. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 24, 2018)

    USD

    The US dollar was the weakest currency for yet another day as risk-taking and weak data dragged it down. Safe-haven flows also moved to the Japanese yen and Swiss franc instead. The Richmond manufacturing index slumped from 20 to 14 versus the consensus at 19. Flash manufacturing and services PMI are due next, along with existing home sales data.

    EUR

    The euro had a mixed run as it advanced to the dollar but weakened to the pound and comdolls. Data turned out stronger than expected as the ZEW readings from both Germany and the entire region beat estimates. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs are due next, and small dips are eyed. Updates on the German coalition talks should continue to influence the shared currency as well.

    GBP

    The pound was able to hold its ground on stronger than expected public sector net borrowing and CBI industrial order expectations data. UK jobs data is due next and a lower claimant count change of 2.3K is eyed compared to the previous month's 5.9K increase in joblessness. The average earnings index could hold steady at 2.5% while the unemployment rate could stay unchanged at 4.3%.

    CHF

    The franc took its share of safe-haven gains despite the lack of top-tier data from Swizterland. There are still major reports due from the Swiss economy today, so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.

    JPY

    The yen gained ground after the BOJ was slightly more hawkish than expected. Still, the central bank decided to keep rates and bond purchases at current levels. Apart from that, the lower-yielding Japanese currency took advantage of dollar weakness. The flash manufacturing PMI is due next.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The higher-yielding comdolls once again gained ground on risk rallies, with the Loonie drawing additional support from NAFTA developments. Key members of the negotiating groups acknowledged that some progress is being made, although Trump still seems prepared to walk away without a deal. EIA crude oil inventories data and New Zealand's quarterly CPI report are lined up next.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  9. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 25, 2018)

    USD

    The dollar suffered yet another selloff after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin remarked in the Davos summit that a weaker dollar is good for trade. US data such as services PMI and existing home sales also turned out mostly weaker than expected, keeping traders doubtful about the Fed's tightening plans this year. New home sales, initial jobless claims, and the goods trade balance are up for release today.

    EUR

    The euro continued to rake in gains despite fears of jawboning from ECB head Draghi during the policy statement later today. A handful of the PMI readings from Germany and France still posted upside surprises, keeping traders positive about the improvements in the region lasting for much longer. No actual rate changes are expected today but strong remarks against currency appreciation could mean losses for the shared currency.

    GBP

    The pound was the strongest currency for the day thanks mostly to Brexit developments and positive jobs figures. The claimant count was weaker than expected at 8.6K versus 2.3K, though, while the previous reading was revised to show a larger increase in joblessness. The average earnings index held steady at 2.5% as expected while the unemployment rate was also unchanged at 4.3%.

    CHF

    The franc also caught a bid in recent sessions as it took over the safe-haven flows from the yen and dollar. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has an empty schedule as well, leaving market sentiment to stay in play.

    JPY

    The Japanese yen had a mixed round as it gave up ground to the pound but managed to outpace its other rivals, particularly the dollar. Japan's flash manufacturing PMI improved from 54.0 to 54.4 versus the consensus at 54.3. Japanese CPI readings are up for release in tomorrow's Asian session and this could impact BOJ tapering expectations.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The comdolls took advantage of dollar weakness but were slightly weaker to the yen and especially against the European currencies. New Zealand's quarterly CPI came in weaker than expected with a meager 0.1% uptick versus the estimated 0.4% gain or the earlier 0.5% increase. Canadian retail sales data are lined up next and the headline figure could show a 0.7% gain while the core reading might be up by another 0.8%.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  10. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 26, 2018)

    USD

    The US dollar dollar drew some support in the New York session as US President Trump said that he sees the currency getting stronger and stronger. He also said that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's remarks on a weaker dollar being good for trade as taken out of context. Data turned out mixed as the initial jobless claims rose from 216K to 233K but was better than the estimated 239K figure. New home sales sank from a downgraded 689K figure to 652K versus the estimated drop to 627K. Advance GDP data is due next and a 3.0% growth figure is eyed.

    EUR

    Volatility picked up for the euro after the ECB statement as the central bank kept policy unchanged as expected but Draghi had a few more insights to share. He cited that risks remain balanced and that uncertainty is stemming from possible changes in US policy. He also explained that the central bank is not targeting exchange rates. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today.

    GBP

    The pound was able to score some gains against its peers despite the lack of top-tier UK data. High Street lending sank from 39K to 36.1K while the CBI realized sales index fell from 20 to 12. The UK preliminary GDP reading is due today and analysts expect to see another 0.4% expansion for Q4 2017.

    CHF

    The franc continued its advance even though SNB head Jordan warned that they could intervene in the forex market to curb currency strength if necessary. So far it looks like the franc is still taking some of the safe-haven flows from the dollar. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.

    JPY

    The yen regained some ground after the release of the CPI and BOJ minutes. The national CPI held steady at 0.9% as expected but the Tokyo core CPI fell from 0.8% to 0.7%. Meanwhile the BOJ minutes didn't contain any surprises and even had a few upbeat remarks. Dollar demand and sentiment could push yen pairs around.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The comdolls were able to hold their ground as risk-taking was in play but gave up some ground to the dollar when it surged. Canadian retail sales turned out mixed as the headline figure came in at 0.2% while the core figure showed a 1.6% gain versus the 0.8% consensus. Canada's CPI reports are due next.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  11. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook ( Jan 29, 2018)

    USD

    The dollar regained some ground towards the end of the previous week despite weaker than expected GDP. The advance reading for Q4 2017 came in at 2.6% versus the estimated 3.0% expansion. Goods trade balance also disappointed but durable goods orders and preliminary wholesale inventories beat expectations. Today has the core PCE spending and personal spending and income data due.

    EUR

    The euro gave up some more ground towards the end of the previous week as a few more officials remarked on the currency's strength. In particular ECB member Villeroy remarked that currency volatility has been a source of uncertainty. Only the German import prices report is due today while the rest of the week has mostly preliminary CPI and GDP data.

    GBP

    The pound was one of the strongest currencies ending the week as progress on the Brexit transition plans and stronger than expected preliminary GDP of 0.5% lifted the currency. Medium-tier reports such as net lending to individuals, mortgage approvals, and the BRC price shop index are lined up over the next few days before the release of UK manufacturing and construction PMI data later on.

    CHF

    The franc was able to hold on to its wins as the currency shrugged off intervention threats from SNB head Jordan. Dollar weakness also drove the lower-yielding franc higher as a safe-haven alternative. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so sentiment could push franc pairs around.

    JPY

    The yen regained some ground as the dollar resumed its slide towards the end of the week. Japan has its household spending, retail sales, and the unemployment rate due in the next Asian session. Strong data could reinforce calls for BOJ tapering, although market sentiment would likely remain the driver for yen price action.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    Canada's CPI reports showed some improvement, keeping Loonie traders hopeful for another BOC hike soon. Baker Hughes reported an increase in oil rig counts, though, and this could mean more output and downside pressure on the commodity. New Zealand has its trade balance due in the next Asian session and a smaller deficit is eyed.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  12. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 30, 2018)

    USD


    The US dollar staged a decent recovery during the New York session on revived expectations of Fed tightening. This was spurred by remarks from several central bank officials highlighting the shift to tightening mode across the globe. Economic data turned out mostly upbeat, with the core PCE price index rising from 0.1% to 0.2% and the personal income figure up by 0.4% versus the 0.3% forecast. Personal spending, however, fell short at 0.4% versus the 0.5% consensus. The CB consumer confidence index is due today.

    EUR

    The euro weakened against most of its counterparts on risk-off vibes for the most part of the European session and on remarks from an ECB official highlighting the shift to global tightening. German import prices came in line with estimates of a 0.3% uptick. German preliminary CPI, French consumer spending, Spanish flash GDP, and the region's flash GDP are all lined up today.

    GBP

    The pound was one of the weaker performers as infighting in PM May's party ahead of the announcement on the EU's negotiating stance in the Brexit transition. There were no reports out of the UK economy then while today has net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals data on tap.

    CHF

    The franc took advantage of risk-off flows during the European session as the euro was also in a weak spot. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has the trade balance and KOF economic barometer on the docket. A smaller surplus of 2.54 billion CHF is eyed while the KOF reading could dip from 111.3 to 110.9.

    JPY

    The yen struggled to hold on to its recent gains as some of the risk-off flows returned to the dollar. Japanese data also turned out mostly weaker than expected as both household spending and unemployment rate missed forecasts, although the latter was due to higher labor force participation. Retail sales beat expectations with a 3.6% gain versus the estimated 2.1% increase.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The comdolls gave up some ground to the dollar but stayed resilient to the European currencies. In Australia, the NAB business confidence index improved from 7 to 11 while New Zealand's trade balance switched to a surplus of 640 million NZD versus the estimated 125 million NZD shortfall on stronger exports. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.

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  13. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 31, 2018)

    USD

    The US dollar rallied and reversed on profit-taking towards the end of the month and ahead of the State of the Union address and FOMC statement. No actual policy changes are expected but traders will be keeping their eyes and ears peeled for clues on the pace of tightening this year. The ADP non-farm employment change figure is also due and analysts expect to see a 186K gain in hiring.

    EUR

    The euro had a mixed run as data also came in mixed. French flash GDP up by 0.6% versus the estimated 0.5% expansion. German preliminary CPI turned out below expectations with a 0.7% drop, though, lower than the estimated 0.5% dip. The region's flash GDP came in line with estimates of a 0.6% growth figure. German retail sales and preliminary CPI readings are due today and stronger than expected results could revive ECB hike forecasts.

    GBP

    The pound was able to regain ground on BOE Governor Carney's optimistic remarks. In his speech, he said that inflation could stay above target longer as the pass-through effects of a weaker pound are just being seen. He also cited that wages are up, the labor market is tight, and that productivity and investment could still pick up. There are no major reports from the UK today.

    CHF

    The franc continued to rake in gains against its peers on risk-off flows and hesitation to buy the dollar. The Swiss trade balance came in stronger than expected with a 2.63 billion CHF surplus versus the estimated 2.54 billion CHF figure. However, the KOF economic barometer disappointed with a fall from 111.4 to 106.9. The UBS consumption indicator and Credit Suisse economic expectations index are lined up today.

    JPY

    The yen also managed to chalk up some wins on risk-off flows and dollar weakness. Japan's preliminary industrial production report turned out stronger than expected with a 2.7% gain versus the estimated 1.5% increase and the earlier 0.5% uptick. Japanese consumer confidence index and housing starts are lined up next.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Loonie managed to stand its ground despite another down day for oil prices due to the API buildup of 3.2 million barrels. In Australia, the headline CPI was slightly weaker than expected at 0.6% versus 0.7% while the trimmed mean CPI came in at 0.4% versus 0.5%. Canadian monthly GDP and underlying inflation data are due today.

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  14. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 01, 2018)

    USD


    The FOMC statement led to a bit of a boost for the dollar on stronger inflation expectations and the addition of the word "further" in projecting more tightening moves. Data also turned out mostly upbeat, with the ADP beating expectations for January even as the previous reading was downgraded. ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and a fall from 59.7 to 58.7 is expected.

    EUR

    The euro held its ground against most of its peers as CPI figures came in line with expectations. The headline estimate dipped from 1.4% to 1.3% while the core reading rose to 1.0%. Final manufacturing PMI readings are due from the region's top economies today.

    GBP

    The pound gave up some ground earlier in the day on reports that the EU might reject a trade proposal that would have little barriers for the UK in accessing the shared market. UK manufacturing PMI is due today and an uptick from 56.3 to 56.5 is eyed, with strong data likely boosting sterling once more.

    CHF

    The franc had a mixed run but was mostly in the green as it advanced to the yen, dollar, and commodity currencies. Swiss reports were weak, though, with both the UBS consumption indicator and Credit Suisse economic expectations index sliding lower. Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, and SECO consumer climate figures are due next.

    JPY

    The yen was in a weak spot as risk appetite improved for the most part of the day and the dollar took back its share of safe-haven gains. Japan's final manufacturing PMI enjoyed an upgrade from 54.4 to 54.8 to reflect a stronger pace of expansion than initially reported. The bond auction is due next.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Aussie and Kiwi were in rally and reverse mode, particularly against the dollar. Data from Australia was mixed, with the CPI figures showing slight dips but business indicators stayed strong. China's manufacturing PMI also dipped slightly based on official data but the Caixin figure was unchanged. Crude oil managed to hold its ground despite the surprise build in EIA stockpiles as the OPEC showed strong compliance to its output deal.

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  15. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 02, 2018)

    USD

    The dollar was in a weak spot once more and failed to draw a boost from upbeat economic data. The ISM manufacturing PMI fell from 59.7 to 59.1 to reflect a slower pace of industry growth, but the reading was better than the 58.7 consensus. However, the jobs component posted a sharp decline, leading to downbeat expectations for the NFP. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 181K in hiring, slightly stronger than the earlier 148K gain.

    EUR

    The euro was one of the top performers of the day even though medium-tier data was mixed. Rising bond yields and a stronger performance among European equities were likely propping the shared currency higher. There were also a few hawkish remarks from ECB officials calling the end of their QE program within the year. Spanish unemployment change, euro zone PPI, and Spanish preliminary CPI are due today.

    GBP

    UK manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected as it slid from 56.2 to 55.3 versus the 56.5 forecast. Components revealed that the main cause for the drop was weaker output, even as prices and export levels rose. The construction PMI is due today and a dip from 52.2 to 52.0 is eyed, indicating a slower pace of industry expansion as well.

    CHF

    The franc was also one of the strongest gainers for the day as it took advantage of dollar and yen weakness. Apart from that, the Swiss SECO consumer climate improved from -2 to +5, outpacing the consensus at +2. Retail sales, however, came in weaker than expected with a 0.6% gain versus the estimated 1.5% increase.

    JPY

    The yen also weakened to most of its peers despite strong data from Japan. The BOJ didn't make any changes to its latest round of JGB purchases, underscoring their commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. There are no other reports due from Japan so yen pairs could take their cues from bond price action.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The comdolls took advantage of dollar and yen weakness but were no match to the strength of European currencies. Data from Australia was mixed as building approvals tanked 20% while import prices posted a 2.0% quarterly gain. Earlier today, PPI also beat expectations at 0.6% versus the 0.4% consensus. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  16. TradersWay

    TradersWay Active Trader

    442
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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 5, 2018)

    USD
    The US dollar staged a strong rally during the NFP release as the results came in better than expected. The economy added 200K jobs in January versus the estimated 181K increase while the December figure was upgraded to 160K. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% as expected while the average hourly earnings figure beat expectations with a 0.3% increase versus the estimated 0.2% uptick. The previous reading also enjoyed a positive revision to 0.4%. The UoM index also enjoyed an upgrade. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI is due today but might not have such a huge impact on the dollar since the jobs report was already released.

    EUR
    The euro gave up some ground to the dollar but managed to stay strong against the rest of its counterparts. Data from the region turned out mostly weaker than expected, though, with Spain reporting a larger 63.7K increase in unemployment versus the estimated 50.3K figure. Euro zone PPI also came in at 0.2% versus the estimated 0.3% increase. Euro zone retail sales and final services PMI readings are due today.

    GBP
    The pound struggled to hold on to some of its recent gains when the construction PMI came in weaker than expected. The reading fell from 52.2 to 50.2 to indicate a slower pace of industry growth. The services PMI is due today and a dip from 54.2 to 54.1 is eyed, although another disappointing read could mean more losses for the pound.

    CHF
    The franc was nearly nonstop in its rallies until the end of the week as risk-off vibes remained in the markets. There were no reports out of Switzerland then and none are due today, so market sentiment could remain the driver of franc price action.

    JPY
    The yen was in a weak spot for the most part of the day before recovering on profit-taking. The Japanese currency did gap higher at the start of the week to signal that traders were also cashing in on last week's moves. There are no major reports due from Japan, though, so market sentiment could push yen pairs around.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
    The comdolls gave up ground to the dollar and most of their counterparts mostly on profit-taking and a pullback in risk appetite. Medium-tier data from Australia like the AIG services index and MI inflation expectations figure showed improvements. China's Caixin services PMI is lined up next and a dip from 53.9 to 53.6 is eyed.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  17. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

    2,241
    7
    84
    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 06, 2018)

    USD

    The dollar was able to draw a bit of support from risk-off flows even as equities plummeted. The VIX posted one of its strongest single-day jumps while indices erased most of their gains for the year in what several analysts called a long-overdue pullback. US data was stronger than expected as the ISM non-manufacturing PMI climbed from 55.9 to 59.9. Only the trade balance and IBD/TIPP economic optimism index are due next.

    EUR

    The euro managed to gain a bit of support from Draghi's optimistic remarks but still caved to the dollar and yen. Draghi acknowledged that economic growth has been broad-based in the region and that they are more confident about inflation. Still, he cautioned that it's too early to call victory just yet. German factory orders and euro zone retail PMI are lined up next.

    GBP

    The pound struggled to stay afloat as it was bogged down by downbeat services PMI. The reading slumped from 54.2 to 53.0 versus the 54.1 consensus to show a weaker pace of industry expansion just like in the manufacturing and construction sectors. There are no major reports from the UK today so traders could react to Brexit-related headlines or price in Super Thursday expectations.

    CHF

    The franc was also among the top contenders as it raked in most of the safe-haven flows. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and there are none due today, which means that sentiment could keep pushing franc pairs around.

    JPY

    The yen was the strongest performer thanks to the sharp tumble among higher-yielding assets on a pickup in market fear. There were no reports out of Japan then and none are due today, so sentiment could still be the primary driver of yen pairs.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The comdolls were greatest hit by the slump in risk appetite as traders dumped riskier holdings. Gold managed to chalk up some gains while crude oil slipped. Earlier today, Australia reported weaker retail sales and trade balance data. New Zealand will release its quarterly jobs report next and might print a meager 0.2% uptick in hiring.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  18. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

    2,241
    7
    84
    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 07, 2018)

    USD

    The US dollar was off to a good start but failed to hold on to most of its gains as risk appetite returned to the markets when equities recovered. Data was mixed, with the trade balance showing a wider deficit and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index beating expectations. Today has speeches by FOMC members Dudley and Williams.

    EUR

    The euro was able to stay mostly resilient despite the volatility in the financial markets for the most part of the day. German factory orders beat expectations with a 3.8% gain while the retail PMI dipped. German industrial production, French trade balance, and Italian retail sales are all lined up today.

    GBP

    The pound was still in a weak spot despite the pickup in risk-taking during the latter sessions. There were no major reports out of the UK but sterling still seems to be reeling from the set of bleak PMI readings across all sectors for January. Traders could start pricing in expectations for Super Thursday as early as today.

    CHF

    The franc gave back some of its recent winnings when risk appetite improved in the markets. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has the SNB foreign currency reserves data. A large increase from their earlier 744 billion CHF holdings could be indicative of central bank intervention, but SNB head Jordan doesn't seem to be too bothered by the latest franc gains.

    JPY

    The yen also gave up some ground as risk appetite peeked back in the financial markets. Data from Japan has been stronger than expected today with the average earnings up 0.7% versus the 0.6% consensus and the leading indicators coming up next.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Kiwi emerged on top thanks to risk-taking and stronger than expected data. The GDT auction yielded a 5.9% gain in dairy prices, its third consecutive gain this year, and the employment change figure was also better than expected at 0.5% versus 0.4%. The jobless rate improved from 4.6% to 4.5% instead of rising to 4.7% but this was partly due to a drop in labor force participation. Canada's trade balance and Ivey PMI missed. The RBNZ decision is coming up and a slight shift to a hawkish tone could be Kiwi bullish.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  19. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

    2,241
    7
    84
    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 08, 2018)

    USD

    The US dollar rebounded against most of its counterparts in recent sessions but analysts have doubts that it can hold on to its winnings. Data has been weaker than expected and FOMC officials have warned of the dangers of low inflation. Only initial jobless claims and mortgage delinquencies are due from the US today.

    EUR

    The euro barely drew support from news of a German coalition. Although full details are yet to be revealed, Merkel's CDU party and CSU allies were able to strike a deal with the SPD. Data has been mixed with German industrial production and French trade balance beating consensus and Italian retail sales falling short. German trade balance and the ECB economic bulletin are due next.

    GBP

    The pound had a mixed performance as it slumped to the dollar and yen but advanced to the comdolls. UK Halifax HPI was actually weaker than expected with a 0.6% fall. Today is Super Thursday for the BOE so additional volatility around the central bank decision, release of MPC minutes, and Inflation Report is expected.

    CHF

    The franc was in a weak spot during the London session but recouped some of its losses as risk aversion returned later on. Swiss foreign currency reserves fell from 744B CHF to 731B CHF, easing intervention fears. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

    JPY

    The yen continued its advance in the latter sessions as risk-off flows returned. Data from Japan was mixed as average cash earnings beat expectations while leading indicators slipped from 108.3% to 107.9%. The 30-year bond auction is scheduled today and any major changes could impact yen pairs once more. The Economy Watchers Sentiment index is also due.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Kiwi lagged behind its comdoll peers when the RBNZ maintained its cautious stance and even downgraded Q1 growth forecasts. Governor Spencer didn't seem too concerned about Kiwi strength as the central bank's projections hint at a weaker currency down the line. Meanwhile, the Loonie has been a bit more resilient despite weaker crude oil prices on rising inventory and NAFTA concerns. RBA Governor Lowe has a speech coming up.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  20. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

    2,241
    7
    84
    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 09, 2018)

    USD

    The US dollar was able to take advantage of risk-off flows as stock markets tanked once more. Equity indices were down roughly 4% mostly due to the short volatility trade, another pending government shutdown, and global tightening prospects. US data was stronger than expected as the initial jobless claims figure improved from 230K to 221K versus the 232K forecast.

    EUR

    Data from the euro zone was weaker than expected as Germany printed a smaller trade surplus of 21.4 billion EUR versus the earlier 22.3 billion EUR figure and the projected 21.5 billion EUR surplus. Today has French and Italian industrial production numbers on tap and strong data could keep ECB hike expectations in play.

    GBP

    The pound got a strong boost from a hawkish BOE statement as the committee expressed their intention to tighten at a faster pace than initially expected. The BOE also upgraded growth and inflation forecasts, underscoring their hiking bias. UK manufacturing and industrial production numbers are due next. The former could show a 0.3% uptick while the latter might see a 0.9% decline.

    CHF

    The franc was the king of pips as it raked in safe-haven gains more than the dollar and yen. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the unemployment rate. Analysts are expecting to see no change from the 3.0% reading.

    JPY

    The yen was also in the top spot due to risk-off flows stemming from the stock market selloff. Data from Japan was actually weaker than expected as the Economy Watchers Sentiment index fell from 53.9 to 49.9 versus the 53.7 consensus. The tertiary index is due next and analysts expect to see a 0.2% uptick. Market sentiment is likely to keep pushing yen pairs around today.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The comdolls were in a weak spot because of the risk-off moves in the financial markets. The Aussie was strongest hit due to RBA head Lowe's remarks and weak data in the earlier session. Today Australia reported a 2.3% drop in home loans while Chinese inflation reports came in line with expectations of a dip in price levels. Canada's jobs reports are lined up next, with the employment change figure expected to post a 10.3K gain.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     

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