Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by katetrades, Feb 13, 2013.

  1. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 09, 2017)

    USD


    The US dollar had a volatile run during the NFP release as the actual figure showed a surprise 33K drop versus the estimated 88K gain. The previous reading featured an upgrade from 156K to 182K so traders are holding out for a positive revision in the September numbers later on. The upside surprise in average hourly earnings at 0.5% versus 0.3% also kept the US currency supported. US banks are closed in observance of Columbus Day today so there are no major reports lined up.

    EUR

    The euro had a mixed run as it was propped up by positive fundamentals but the political uncertainty in Spain is also keeping a lid on its gains. Medium-tier reports were mostly stronger than expected as German factory orders surged 3.6% versus the estimated 0.7% uptick while the French trade balance showed a smaller than expected deficit of 4.5 billion EUR. German industrial production data is due today and a 0.9% gain is eyed after the earlier flat reading while the euro zone Sentix investor confidence index could drop from 28.2 to 26.8.

    GBP

    The pound was still in a weak spot as Brexit concerns overshadowed upside data surprises earlier on. UK Halifax HPI showed a 0.8% gain instead of staying flat but the focus was on the government's negotiating stance and how PM May appears to be losing support even within the Conservative Party. There are no major reports due from the UK today so the focus could be on Brexit updates.

    CHF

    The franc was able to rake in some gains against most of its rivals, except against the US dollar. SNB foreign currency reserves increased from 717 billion CHF to 724 billion CHF, which wasn't enough to convince market watchers that the central bank is intervening in the forex market. There are no major reports due from Switzerland today so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.

    JPY

    The yen was able to rally across the board on downbeat US NFP results and a bit of risk aversion. Japanese average cash earnings came in stronger than expected with a 0.9% gain versus the estimated 0.5% increase. Japanese banks are closed for the holiday today so liquidity could be tight and market sentiment could stay in play.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Loonie continued to chalk up more losses on another disappointing piece of data. Employment rose 10K versus the estimated 13.9K increase and the earlier 22.2K gain, but the jobless rate held steady at 6.2% instead of rising to 6.3%. The Ivey PMI also beat expectations with a rise from 56.3 to 59.3 versus the estimated dip to 56.0. Canadian banks are closed for the holiday today and the only major report that might push comdolls around is the Chinese Caixin services PMI, which could advance from 52.7 to 53.1.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  2. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 10, 2017)

    USD

    The US dollar was stuck in its ranges for the most part of the day as banks were closed in observance of Columbus Day. Dovish FOMC member Kashkari has a speech lined up today and the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is due. Other than that, US markets could continue to take their cue from market sentiment and earnings reports.

    EUR

    The shared currency had a mixed run but it did take a few hits on political uncertainty in Spain and Germany. Catalonia's bid for independence is still being challenged but has not kept investors from worrying that other European cities might follow its lead. Meanwhile, Merkel's political party continues to seek a coalition with the Greens but there has been no official word yet. Data turned out better than expected as German industrial production jumped 2.6% versus the estimated 0.9% uptick while the region's Sentix Investor Confidence index landed at 29.7 versus 28.6. French and Italian industrial production, along with the German trade balance, are due next.

    GBP

    The pound was able to score some wins when PM May assured that a two-year transition period will be in play after Brexit. She did float the idea of a 'no deal' scenario and said that the ball is in the EU's court. UK manufacturing production data is due today and a 0.2% uptick is eyed after the earlier 0.5% gain. Industrial production is projected to post another 0.2% uptick.

    CHF

    The franc was weaker against most of its peers as there were no reports from the Swiss economy yesterday. The Swiss jobless rate is up for release today and no change from the earlier 3.2% figure are eyed. This could leave the franc sensitive to the usual slew of currency-specific reports and market sentiment.

    JPY

    The yen was stuck in consolidation at the start of the week on the lack of major market catalysts. Yen pairs appear to be breaking higher in today's Asian session, though, even as Japan's current account balance came in better than expected at a surplus of 2.27 trillion JPY versus the estimated drop to 1.98 trillion JPY. The Economy Watchers Sentiment index is due next and a rise from 49.7 to 49.9 is expected.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The comdolls were slightly weaker for the day as China printed a downbeat Caixin services PMI of 50.6 versus the earlier 52.7 and estimated 53.1 figures. OPEC officials expressed more support for an extension of the output deal but the positively-correlated Loonie failed to benefit from the pickup in oil prices. The Kiwi remains on the back foot as the political uncertainty lingers in parliament. Canada has its housing starts and building permits coming up, along with a speech by BOC policymaker Wilkins.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  3. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 11, 2017)

    USD

    The US dollar gave back some of its recent wins when the Trump administration's tax reform plans encountered roadblocks. Geopolitical risks from North Korea also returned to the spotlight as South Korea flew military planes as a show of force over the Korean peninsula. Meanwhile, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index posted a surprise drop from 53.4 to 50.3 versus the projected rise to 54.2. The FOMC minutes are due next and could spur additional volatility for dollar pairs.

    EUR

    The euro was able to breathe a sigh of relief when Catalonia's president stopped short of declaring independence and instead expressed openness for dialogue with the Spanish government. Euro zone reports were mostly stronger than expected, except for French industrial production, keeping ECB tapering hopes in play. There are no reports due from the euro zone today so the focus could still be on political risk, particularly in Germany as coalition talks are still coming up.

    GBP

    The pound shrugged off Brexit concerns as data turned out mostly stronger than expected. Manufacturing production rose by 0.4% versus the estimated 0.2% uptick while industrial production came in line with estimates of a 0.2% increase. The goods trade deficit widened, however, as exports lagged. There are no major reports due from the UK economy today.

    CHF

    The franc had a mixed run as it reacted mostly to currency-specific events, losing ground to its European peers and scoring some wins on a bit of risk aversion as North Korean concerns resurfaced. The Swiss jobless rate also improved from 3.2% to 3.1% instead of holding steady as expected. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

    JPY

    The Japanese yen took advantage of dollar weakness but was no match to pound and euro strength. Japan's current account balance turned out better than expected at a surplus of 2.27 trillion JPY versus the estimated fall to 1.98 trillion JPY from the earlier 2.03 trillion JPY reading. Earlier today, the core machinery orders figure also turned out stronger than expected at a 3.4% gain versus 0.9%.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Aussie and Loonie were able to take advantage of dollar weakness but the Kiwi was stuck in limbo due to political uncertainties in New Zealand. Earlier today, Australia reported an increase in its Westpac consumer sentiment reading from 2.5% to 3.6% to reflect stronger optimism. In Canada, building permits turned out weaker than expected with a 5.5% slump while housing starts surprised to the upside. New Zealand's food price index is due next.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  4. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 12, 2017)

    USD

    The US dollar dipped against most of its counterparts when the FOMC minutes were released as it revealed that some policymakers had some doubts about tightening in December. In particular, the minutes indicated that many members were worried that the factors dragging inflation down might not be transitory. A couple of FOMC members are set to give testimonies today and the PPI figures will be released, giving traders some insight as to how the actual CPI readings might turn out on Friday.

    EUR

    The euro continued its relief rally after Spanish PM Rajoy gave Catalonia an 8-day ultimatum to officially declare independence. There were no reports due from the euro zone then so this display of authority eased political uncertainty. Euro zone industrial production and French final CPI numbers are due next, with upbeat figures likely to put the focus back on ECB tapering expectations.

    GBP

    The pound also staged a rally as Brexit updates were no longer in the limelight. There were no reports out of the UK economy then while today has the BOE credit conditions survey lined up. Finance Minister Hammond said that they are looking into the realistic worst case scenario but has yet to set a budget for a no-deal Brexit.

    CHF

    The franc gave up ground to its peers on improving risk appetite stemming from weaker odds of a Fed December hike. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today so market sentiment could remain the driver of franc price action.

    JPY

    The Japanese yen was also in a weak spot, reacting to market sentiment rather than taking advantage of dollar weakness. Data from Japan was stronger than expected as core machinery orders rose 3.4% versus the projected 0.8% uptick while preliminary machine tool orders increased 45.3%. Earlier today, bank lending was also reported to have shown a larger than expected 3% gain.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The comdolls rallied on returning risk appetite as the FOMC minutes suggested weaker odds of December tightening. However, New Zealand reported a 0.2% dip in the food price index after previously posting a 0.6% gain. US crude oil inventories data is due next and a speech by BOC member Wilkins is lined up.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  5. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 13, 2017)

    USD

    The US dollar was barely able to establish a clear direction even as data was mostly stronger than expected. Headline PPI posted a 0.4% uptick while core PPI also showed a 0.4% gain, twice as much as the estimated 0..2% uptick. Initial jobless claims fell from 258K to 243K versus the projected 251K figure. Headline retail sales could show a 1.7% rebound while core retail sales could come in at 0.9%. Headline CPI could show another 0.2% uptick.

    EUR

    The euro was able to pocket a few gains when ECB official Coeure reiterated the need to scale back asset purchases but these gains were erased when Draghi highlighted the effectiveness of negative rates and QE. Data came in mixed as industrial production beat expectations with a 1.4% gain versus the estimated 0.6% increase while the French final CPI was downgraded to show a larger 0.2% downtick from the earlier 0.1% dip. German final CPI is due today.

    GBP

    The pound had a very volatile run as it initially dropped on a deadlock with Brexit negotiations but rallied sharply later on when the EU appeared amenable to a two-year transition period, provided the UK is able to meet its financial obligations. Only the BOE credit conditions survey was released then while today has the CB leading index.

    CHF

    The franc had a mixed performance as it gave up ground to European rivals but consolidated to the Loonie and Aussie. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has the PPI lined up. Another 0.3% uptick is eyed and a downbeat result could mean more franc weakness.

    JPY

    The yen regained some ground to its peers as traders probably booked profits off the recent moves. Data from Japan was mixed as PPI came in line with estimates of a 3% gain while tertiary industry activity surprised to the downside with a 0..2% drop. There are no reports due from Japan today so yen pairs might take their cues from global bond yields and risk sentiment.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The comdolls were mostly stronger for the day as risk appetite was present but the Loonie took a few hits on weaker housing data. Chinese trade balance is due today and a smaller surplus is eyed, possibly indicating weaker global demand. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  6. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (October 16, 2017)

    USD

    The US dollar took a huge hit on Friday when economic data came in mostly weaker than expected. Headline inflation came in at 0.5% versus 0.6% while the core reading stood at 0.1% versus 0.2%. Retail sales data turned out mixed, with the headline reading up 1.6% versus 1.7% and the core figure at 1.0% versus 0.9%. Still, Fed head Yellen sounded hawkish in her speech over the weekend. There are no major reports due from the US economy today.

    EUR

    The shared currency gave up most of its recent gains at the end of the week as traders booked profits and lightened exposure to weekend risk. Spain's political troubles are still in play so any major developments could lead to huge moves in either direction. German WPI and the region's trade balance are the only reports lined up today.

    GBP

    The pound also took a step back from its recent rallies at the end of the week as there were no major reports to sustain the climb. The CB leading index posted a 0.1% dip while the previous figure was downgraded to show a 0.2% fall. Earlier today, the Rightmove HPI showed a 1.1% rebound in house prices.

    CHF

    The franc had a mixed run as it reacted to currency-specific data and drew little support from stronger than expected PPI. Producer prices were up 0.5% in September versus expectations of a 0.3% uptick, signaling that overall inflation likely picked up as well. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

    JPY

    The yen was mostly weaker to its peers on Friday even as risk aversion was present and dollar weakness came into play. Over the weekend, BOJ Governor Kuroda emphasized in his speech that Japan will continue its monetary easing plan. The revised industrial production report is due today but no changes to the initial 2.1% estimate are eyed.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The comdolls were able to take advantage of dollar and yen weakness on Friday even as data from China signaled a drop in global demand for commodities. The trade surplus narrowed from 287B CNY to 193B CNY on stronger imports. Chinese CPI and PPI are lined up next and weaker inflation is eyed. Canada has its foreign securities purchases due next while New Zealand will print its quarterly CPI and possibly show a 0.4% increase in price levels.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  7. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 17, 2017)

    USD

    The US dollar got a bit of reprieve when it was reported that Trump was impressed by his meeting with John Taylor, another potential candidate for Fed Chairmanship. He is also reportedly scheduled to meet with Yellen on Thursday. Data surprised to the upside as the Empire State manufacturing index rose from 24.4 to 30.2. Industrial production data is up for release today and a 0.3% rebound is eyed. Data on import prices and capacity utilization are also lined up.

    EUR

    The euro took hits despite stronger than expected data from Germany and the entire region. German WPI was up 0.6% versus the 0.4% consensus while the region's trade balance also beat expectations with a 21.6 billion EUR surplus versus the consensus at 20.3 billion EUR. ZEW economic sentiment figures are due today, along with final CPI readings, but the focus could stay on political developments in Spain, Austria, and Germany.

    GBP

    The pound had another topsy-turvy day as Brexit updates were the main driver of price action. Prime Minister May had a previously unannounced working dinner with EC President Juncker, after which they pledged to speed up negotiations. However, this didn't seem enough to assure businessmen and taxpayers in the UK. CPI readings are due today and the headline figure is slated to rise from 2.9% to 3.0% while the core reading could hold steady at 2.7%.

    CHF

    The franc gave up ground to most of its peers despite the lack of top-tier data from Switzerland. There are still no major reports due from the Swiss economy today so franc pairs could take their cues from currency-specific factors or overall market sentiment.

    JPY

    The yen had a mixed run but was mostly stronger against its counterparts. Japan's industrial production figure was downgraded from 2.1% to 2.0% but this seemed to have a minimal effect on the lower-yielding currency, which managed to draw some support from geopolitical risks. There are still no reports due from Japan today and the attention seems to be on the talks between US and North Korean diplomats.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Kiwi got a boost from upbeat CPI data at 0.5% versus 0.4% in Q3, representing a pickup in inflation from the previous flat reading. Earlier today, Australia printed the minutes of the latest RBA meeting. New Zealand's GDT auction is due next and a rebound in dairy prices could keep the Kiwi afloat.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  8. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 18, 2017)

    USD

    The US dollar managed to stay afloat thanks to mostly upbeat medium-tier data and positive Fed rhetoric. FOMC member Harker highlighted the tight labor market while Kaplan wrote about waiting to see if 2% inflation is achieved in the medium term or not. FOMC members Dudley and Kaplan have testimonies scheduled today, ahead of the release of US building permits and housing starts.

    CAD

    The Loonie was off to a rough start but later on staged a strong rally after Mexico and Canada rejected the latest set of NAFTA proposals from the US. Another round of talks is scheduled next month but many think that this could go on until after the end of the year, which means that Canada can stick with the current trade agreements for longer. Canadian manufacturing sales is due next and a smaller 0.1% dip is eyed.

    EUR

    The euro held its ground even though economic data turned out mostly weaker than expected. The German ZEW economic sentiment index rose from 17.0 to 17.6 but this was way short of the 20.1 consensus while the region's index fell from 31.7 to 26.7 instead of improving to 34.2. There were no changes in the final core and headline CPI readings. ECB head Draghi has a speech lined up next.

    GBP

    The pound was weighed down heavily by downbeat BOE rhetoric, causing traders to shrug off positive inflation data. The headline CPI rose to 3.0% as expected while the core figure held steady at 2.7%. Officials Carney, Tenreyo, and Ramsden shared the view that Brexit could complicate economic performance so they weren't so convinced that a rate hike is needed just yet. Jobs data is due next and an increase of 1.3K in claimants is eyed, but the average earnings index could draw more attention.

    JPY

    The Japanese currency was mostly weaker against its peers as dollar demand persisted. There were no major reports from Japan so traders were more fixated on the potential outcome of the upcoming elections. Stronger support for PM Abe would be a vote in favor of easy monetary policy, which could continue to keep a lid on yen gains. There are no reports due from Japan today.

    Commodity Currencies

    The Kiwi took some hits after the GDT auction revealed a 1% drop in dairy prices, following the earlier 2.4% slump. This could prompt downgrades from Fonterra in terms of milk payout forecasts, which could give the RBNZ reason to stick to its neutral stance for much longer. Earlier today, Australia's MI leading index showed a 0.1% rebound from the earlier 0.1% drop.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  9. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 19, 2017)

    USD

    The US dollar was able to brush off downbeat housing market data as traders were already aware that these were skewed by the recent hurricanes. Also Fedspeak was more hawkish than usual, with members Kaplan and Dudley acknowledging the tightness in the labor market and its potential impact on wages and inflation. The Fed Beige Book also underscored these views and repeated that the economy is expanding at a modest to moderate pace. Initial jobless claims and Philly Fed index are due next.

    EUR

    The euro was in a weak spot as political uncertainties took over price action in the absence of top-tier data or upbeat remarks from Draghi. Looking ahead, updates on Austria's polls could continue to keep traders on edge in the region while the pickup in risk-taking could also dampen demand for the currency.

    GBP

    The pound had a positive reaction to the jobs report as the average earnings index held steady at an upgraded 2.2% reading. Claimant count came in at 1.7K versus the projected 1.3K figure. Brexit updates led to a bit of volatility but the UK currency managed to maintain its rally. UK retail sales data is due next and a 0.1% dip is expected.

    CHF

    The franc slid lower as risk appetite came into play and there were no reports to boost the currency. Swiss trade balance is due today and analysts are expecting to see a a higher surplus of 2.47 billion CHF compared to the earlier 2.17 billion CHF figure.

    JPY

    The yen was one of the weakest performers for the day as risk-taking took hold of the markets. Global bond yields were also up and yen bulls might have reduced their exposure to the weekend's elections. Japan's trade balance missed expectations and showed a smaller surplus of 0.24 trillion JPY compared to the estimated 0.31 trillion JPY figure.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Loonie enjoyed a strong boost from better than expected Canadian manufacturing sales data and more indications that the OPEC could extend its output deal. Sources have revealed that a nine-month extension is possible while others have said that the cartel is looking at a time frame of six to nine months. EIA crude oil stockpiles also saw a larger than expected draw of 5.7 million barrels. In New Zealand, NZ First Party leaders is set to announce his decision on which party to support today.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  10. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 20, 2017)

    USD

    The US dollar held steady for the most part of the day as traders waited to find out how Trump's meeting with Yellen went. Reports still indicated that the President is leaning towards appointing Powell, who is considered a dovish option. Data came in better than expected as initial jobless claims fell from 244K to 222K while the Philly Fed index improved from 23.8 to 27.9 versus the estimated drop to 21.9. US existing home sales is due next.

    EUR

    The euro was able to hold its ground and chalk up a few gains despite the lack of top-tier data from the euro zone. Today has the German PPI and current account balance on tap and upbeat data could allow the shared currency to pocket more gains, although political uncertainty in Spain and Austria could pose upside roadblocks.

    GBP

    The pound took another hit on downbeat retail sales data as consumer spending tanked 0.8% instead of dipping by 0.1%. Brexit updates were also front and center as EU leaders upped the pressure on May's government to speed up negotiations. Only the public sector net borrowing report is due from the UK today, so Brexit updates, particularly those coming from the EU summit in Brussels, could continue to drive pound price action.

    CHF

    The franc was able to benefit from weakness in other European currencies as it emerged as the safe-haven in the region. Swiss trade balance also beat expectations at 2.92 billion CHF versus the estimated 2.47 billion CHF figure. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so market sentiment could be key.

    JPY

    The yen was also one of the big winners for the day as traders steered clear from the dollar but saw reason to pile on safe-haven holdings. Japan's all industries activity index was slightly weaker than expected at a 0.1% uptick versus the estimated 0.2% gain. There are no reports due from Japan today but persistent risk-off moves could continue to keep the yen afloat.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Kiwi tanked when NZF announced its support for the Labour party instead of National, as the former is seen to be leaning strongly towards protectionist policies. In effect these could limit trade and migration, two of the main drivers of growth in the country for the past few years. Data from China came in mostly in line with estimates while Australia's jobs figures surpassed consensus. Canada has its CPI and retail sales numbers due next and strong readings could reinforce BOC hike expectations.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  11. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook ( October 23 2017)

    USD

    The US dollar was mostly stronger at the end of the previous week as medium-tier data came in better than expected. Existing home sales rose from 5.35 million to 5.39 million instead of falling to 5.30 million. The federal budget balance also showed a surplus of 8.0 billion USD instead of the estimated 0.9 billion USD deficit and was a huge improvement over the earlier 107.7 billion USD shortfall. There are no reports due from the US today so the attention could be on Trump's next Fed Chair pick.

    EUR

    The euro had a mixed run as it weakened to the dollar and yen but held its ground against the commodity currencies. German PPI beat expectations with a 0.3% gain versus the 0.1% consensus while the region's current account surplus widened to 33.3 billion EUR versus the estimated 26.2 billion EUR figure. To top it off, the previous reading enjoyed an upgrade to 31.5 billion EUR. The region's consumer confidence index is due next and no change to the earlier -1 reading is eyed.

    GBP

    The pound pulled off a strong finish on Friday after the UK public sector borrowing report printed better than expected results. The deficit stood at 5.3 billion GBP compared to the estimated 5.7 billion GBP shortfall while the previous reading was revised to show a smaller deficit of 4.1 billion GBP. CBI industrial order expectations data is due next and a rise from 7 to 9 is expected.

    CHF

    The franc was mostly stuck in consolidation on Friday, except against the British pound. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today so market sentiment and currency-specific action could come into play.

    JPY

    The yen had a weak finish last week and gapped down to its counterparts this week as the elections in Japan took place. Abe emerged with strong support for his leadership and political party, which means a likely tax hike in 2019 and constitutional reform. This also means support for the BOJ's easy monetary policy. There are no reports from Japan today so risk sentiment and post-election moves could stay in play.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Kiwi continued to bleed against its counterparts throughout Friday as the decision of NZF to support the Labour Party weighed on economic prospects. In Canada, headline CPI was weaker than expected at 0.2% versus 0.3% while core retail sales posted a surprise 0.7% drop instead of the estimated 0.3% gain. Headline retail sales was also below expectations with a 0.3% drop instead of the 0.5% gain, weighing heavily on BOC hike forecasts. Canadian wholesale sales is due next and a 1.1% increase is expected.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  12. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 24, 2017)

    USD


    The US dollar rallied then reversed to start the week as equities ended the day in the red on weaker tech and industrials performance. There were no reports out of the US economy on Monday as traders kept their focus on Trump's next Fed Chairperson appointment. Medium-tier reports such as flash manufacturing and services PMIs, as well as the Richmond manufacturing index, are lined up next.

    EUR

    The euro was off to a slow start as it retreated to some of its peers while moving sideways against the rest. Euro zone consumer confidence was unchanged as the index held steady at -1 as expected. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs from Germany and France are lined up today and strong figures could set the tone for an upbeat ECB decision later this week.

    GBP

    The pound managed to hold its ground despite dovish remarks from BOE MPC member Cunliffe. While he acknowledged that the economy has seen improvements, he also warned that a hike is still an "open question" on timing since real incomes are being squeezed by subdued wage growth and imported inflation on sterling weakness. The CBI industrial order expectations index fell from 7 to -2 instead of improving to 9, hinting at weaker business conditions down the line.

    CHF

    The franc was able to regain its bearings later in the day when risk aversion peeked back in the markets. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today, so the franc could take its cue from euro zone data or overall market sentiment once more.

    JPY

    The yen gapped down over the weekend then filled this gap later in the day as risk-off flows returned. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday but the aftermath of Abe's victory weighed on the currency in anticipation of another tax hike in 2019 and a continuation of the BOJ's easy monetary policy. Today has the flash manufacturing PMI lined up and a gain from 52.9 to 53.1 is expected.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The comdolls returned some of their recent gains to their lower-yielding counterparts when risk-taking took a step back in the latter sessions. Canadian wholesale sales rose 0.5% versus the projected 1.1% gain while Australia's leading index chalked up a 0.1% uptick, lower than the previous 0.2% increase. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies today.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  13. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 25, 2017)

    USD


    The US dollar tossed and turned as the lack of top-tier data left traders extra sensitive to updates from Washington. Fears that the Trump tax plan could lose votes from a couple of GOP Senators displeased with the US President dragged the currency down at the start of the session, but hints that Trump could pick Taylor as his next Fed Chief spurred gains. US flash services and manufacturing PMI readings from Markit also beat expectations while the Richmond manufacturing index disappointed. Durable goods orders data and new home sales are lined up next.

    EUR

    The euro was mostly stronger for the day as traders are starting to price in upbeat expectations for the ECB decision. PMI readings from Germany and France came in better than expected, with only the region's flash services PMI missing the mark. German Ifo business climate data is due next and no change from the 115.2 figure is eyed.

    GBP

    The pound was mostly weaker against its counterparts as traders focused on Brexit updates while there were no major reports out of the UK economy. Today has the preliminary GDP reading due and another 0.3% growth figure is expected, but downbeat results could undermine confidence that the UK can stay resilient throughout Brexit.

    CHF

    The franc held steady against most of its peers since there were no major reports out of the Swiss economy. Today has the UBS consumption indicator due and a gain from the earlier 1.53 figure could spur franc strength. The Credit Suisse Economic Expectations index is also lined up and an improvement over the earlier 28.0 reading could also provide a boost.

    JPY

    The yen was still in a weak spot against most of its counterparts while retracing from its drop against others. Japan's flash manufacturing PMI was weaker than expected as it fell from 52.9 to 52.5 instead of improving to 53.1. There are no reports due from Japan today so risk sentiment could stay in play or the currency could take its cue from bond yields.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Aussie tumbled sharply upon seeing downbeat CPI readings, with the headline figure at 0.6% versus 0.8% and the core reading at 0.4% versus 0.5%. Canada's monetary policy statement is due next and no rate changes are eyed. Instead traders are likely reading between the lines to gauge if another hike is in the cards before the end of the year. New Zealand's trade deficit is due in the next Asian session and a smaller deficit of 900 million NZD is expected.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  14. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 26, 2017)

    USD


    The US dollar was mostly supported by stronger than expected housing data, along with strong contributions from durable goods orders. However, uncertainties surrounding the Trump tax plan and the next Fed head are keeping the dollar's gains in check. Only medium-tier reports like the goods trde balance, preliminary wholesale inventories, and pending home sales are due next.

    EUR

    The euro was able to hold its ground against most of its peers, except against the British pound. German Ifo business climate data was stronger than expected as the reading rose from 115.3 to 116.7 instead of dipping to 115.2. Traders are sitting tight ahead of today's ECB decision as the central bank is widely expected to announce the size of its taper.

    GBP

    The pound got a strong boost from better than expected Q3 preliminary GDP. The economy expanded 0.4% during the quarter, a notch higher than the estimated and previous 0.3% growth figure. Only the CBI realized sales index is due today and a fall from 42 to 14 is expected, possibly hinting at weaker business conditions down the line.

    CHF

    The franc regained ground against most of its rivals, except for the British pound. Data from Switzerland showed improvements as the UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.50 to 1.56 while the Credit Suisse Economic Expectations index climbed from 28.0 to 32.0. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so the currency could be sensitive to the ECB decision and its impact on EUR/CHF.

    JPY

    The yen recovered against most of its peers, except the pound. There were no major reports out of Japan but uncertainties looming over the dollar rendered the yen as the preferred safe-haven currency for the day. There are still no major reports due today so traders could be sensitive to market sentiment in trading yen pairs.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Loonie was dragged lower by the BOC's less hawkish tone during their rate statement. The central bank kept rates unchanged at 1.00% as expected but mentioned inflation concerns and the Loonie strength one too many times even in the presser. BOC head Poloz and policymaker Wilkins also noted the uncertainties stemming from NAFTA renegotiations. New Zealand printed a larger than expected trade deficit at 1143 million NZD versus the estimated 900 million NZD shortfall.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  15. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 27, 2017)

    USD


    The dollar has gotten a boost from news that the House passed a budget resolution to allow the tax bill to clear Senate without achieving a supermajority. US advance GDP data for Q3 is due next and hopes are running high after the durable goods orders report suggested a stronger contribution from the business sector for the period. Analysts are expecting to see a 2.6% growth figure, slower than the earlier 3.1% expansion. News on Trump's Fed Chair pick could also lead to big moves for the dollar.

    EUR

    The euro suffered a strong selloff during the ECB decision, which was seen as a dovish taper. The ECB plans to maintain its 60 billion EUR monthly asset purchase program until the end of the year then tapering it down to 30 billion EUR per month from January to September 2018 or beyond if necessary. Draghi admitted that the decision was not unanimous and that inflation has not been encouraging but expressed optimism that growth could continue. Data on German import prices is due next.

    GBP

    The pound commiserated with the euro after the ECB announcement as this also sparked concerns that the upcoming BOE decision might not be so hawkish. Besides, the CBI realized sales index posted a surprise tumble from 42 to -36 versus the estimated dip to 14. This signals that business conditions aren't looking too good, following the disappointment in the CBI industrial order expectations index earlier in the week. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.

    CHF

    The franc gave up ground to some of its peers as EUR/CHF did not rally strongly after the ECB decision, keeping traders wary of future intervention by the SNB. There were no reports from Switzerland yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.

    JPY

    The yen lost ground to the dollar but managed to advance against most of its rivals. Data from Japan has been slightly better than expected, with the Tokyo core CPI beating expectations with a 0.6% uptick versus the projected 0.5% gain. The national core CPI came in at 0.7% as expected. There are no other reports lined up from Japan so the yen might take its cue from bond yields, sentiment, and dollar demand.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The comdolls were mostly weaker, except against the euro, as the gang is not likely to see any rate hikes from their respective central banks anytime soon. In Australia, quarterly PPI disappointed with a meager 0.2% uptick versus the estimated 0.4% gain. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies next so market sentiment could take control.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  16. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 6, 2017)

    USD

    The US dollar dipped upon seeing downbeat NFP results but recovered before the week closed. Employment rose by 261K in October versus the estimated 312K gain, but the earlier figure was upgraded from -33K to +18K. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1% while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI improved to 60.1. There are no major reports due from the US today but FOMC member Dudley has a speech lined up.

    EUR

    The euro gave back most of its recent gains as traders likely booked profits during the market holidays. German factory orders data is due next and a 1.0% decline is eyed, following the earlier 3.6% increase. The Sentix investor confidence index is also lined up and an improvement from 29.7 to 31.2 is expected.

    GBP

    The pound was in recovery mode on Friday when the services PMI beat expectations. The reading rose from 53.6 to 55.6 versus the consensus at 53.3. BOE Governor Carney's remarks on how Brexit could limit the central bank's ability to cut rates also kept the currency supported. There are no major reports due from the UK economy today.

    CHF

    The franc had a mixed run as the lack of top-tier data from Switzerland left the currency sensitive to country-specific events and market sentiment. Swiss CPI is due today and analysts are expecting to see a 0.1% uptick in price levels, following the earlier 0.2% gain.

    JPY

    The yen also had a mixed run as it reacted mostly to currency-specific factors. Japanese banks were closed on Friday for the holiday and there are no major reports due from Japan today. This signals that the currency could take its cue from sentiment and its counterparts once more.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Aussie was one of the weakest performers at the end of the week as it continued sliding against most of its peers. Australian retail sales came in flat instead of posting the estimated 0.4% uptick. In Canada, employment rose by 35.3K versus the estimated 15.3K increase and earlier 10K gain. New Zealand's quarterly inflation expectations fell from 2.1% to 2.0% and Canada's Ivey PMI is due next.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  17. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 07, 2017)

    USD

    The dollar was off to a good start but gave up its gains during the latter part of the London session and throughout the US session after FOMC member Dudley confirmed his retirement plans. He is one of the more hawkish members of the Fed so the change could weigh on rate hike odds next year. Newly-appointed member Quarles is set to give a testimony today and traders are eager to find out about his policy biases. Fed Chair Yellen also has a speech due and US consumer credit data will be released.

    EUR

    The euro was in a weak spot against most of its peers as final services PMI readings turned out weaker than expected. On a less downbeat note, the Sentix investor confidence index improved from 29.7 to 34.0 versus the consensus at 31.2. Euro zone retail PMI and retail sales are due today, after Governor Draghi gives a testimony that is expected to shed more light on future central bank action. German industrial production data is also due.

    GBP

    The pound was one of the better-performing currencies for the day even though there were no major UK reports released. Earlier today, the UK BRC retail sales monitor showed a 1.0% slide versus the previous 1.9% gain, signaling weakness in domestic spending owing to inflation. The Halifax HPI is due next and a 0.2% uptick is eyed, slower than the earlier 0.8% gain.

    CHF

    The franc had a mixed run as the currency simply reacted to its counterparts. Swiss CPI came in line with expectations of a 0.1% uptick and traders are looking to SNB head Jordan's testimony next. SNB foreign currency reserves data is also due and a huge gain over the previous 724 billion CHF level could signal intervention.

    JPY

    The yen weakened to most of its peers, except against the euro and the dollar. BOJ minutes and Governor Kuroda's speech sent dovish vibes on a continuation of the central bank's easy monetary policy. Earlier today, Japan's average cash earnings figure came in better than expected at 0.9% versus 0.6% and the earlier 0.7% figure.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Loonie drew a bit more support from rising crude oil prices amid the political purge in Saudi Arabia. Data also turned out better than expected as the Ivey PMI rose from 59.6 to 63.8 versus the consensus at 60.2. The RBA decision is coming up next and no changes to the 1.50% interest rates are eyed but traders are keen to find out if there was any shift in the central bank's bias. BOC Governor Poloz has a speech coming up and New Zealand will have its GDT auction next.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  18. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 08, 2017)

    USD

    The US dollar took some hits during the New York session when rumors swirled that Senate would impose a one-year delay before implementing tax cuts. Medium-tier reports such as consumer credit and JOLTS job openings data turned out stronger than expected. There are no major reports lined up from the US today so the focus could remain on tax reform.

    EUR

    The euro had a mixed run as reports also came in mixed. German industrial production sank 1.6% versus the estimated 0.7% drop while the region's retail sales report printed a stronger than expected 0.7% gain. Only the French trade balance is lined up from the euro zone today.

    GBP

    The pound struggled to hold on to most of its gains as medium-tier reports barely provided support. The UK BRC retail sales monitor fell by 1.0% versus the earlier 1.9% gain while the Halifax HPI posted a stronger than expected 0.3% increase. There are no major reports due from the UK today.

    CHF

    The franc rallied upon seeing a small gain in SNB foreign currency reserves that wasn't enough to spook intervention fears. The reading climbed from 724B CHF to 742B CHF. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so the franc could take its cue from market sentiment and counter currency action.

    JPY

    The yen was able to gain a bit of ground when the dollar weakened in the latter trading sessions. It also helped that Japan's average cash earnings figure came in stronger than expected at 0.9% versus 0.6%. Only the Japanese leading indicators is due today and a small dip is eyed.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Loonie had an active trading session but was able to end positive as Poloz did not sound too dovish in his testimony. While he warned of weak wage growth due to slack in the labor market, he also expressed openness to the idea of seeing inflation overshoot their target. Meanwhile, the Kiwi dipped upon seeing another drop in dairy prices during the GDT auction. The RBNZ decision is due next.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  19. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 09, 2017)

    USD

    The US dollar rallied then reversed as traders have been paying extra close attention to tax reform updates. Senators are gearing up to unveil their version of the tax bill today while Congress will vote on theirs next week. There have also been rumors that Senate might impose a one-year delay before implementing tax cuts. Only the initial jobless claims and final wholesale inventories data are due today, so the focus could still be on tax reform.

    EUR

    The euro weakened to the commodity currencies but managed to regain ground against the yen and pound. Only the French trade balance was released from the region and the actual figure came in line with expectations, leaving the shared currency reactive to its counterparts instead. German trade balance and EU economic forecasts are up for release today, but these aren't highly expected to cause huge swings for the euro.

    GBP

    The pound was one of the weakest performers for the day as fresh Brexit jitters popped up. There has been waning support for PM May's government and it doesn't help that the EU is suggesting pushing back future negotiations until unresolved major issues regarding citizen's rights in the post-Brexit period are settled. There were no major reports out of the UK yesterday and none are due today, so the focus could remain on Brexit uncertainties.

    CHF

    The franc slid mostly lower against its peers as risk-taking was in play. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has a speech by SNB head Jordan. Jawboning could be part of his testimony as usual but expressing less concern about franc strength could allow the currency to rebound.

    JPY

    The yen had a mixed run as it mostly reacted to country-specific factors. Data turned out weaker than expected as core machinery orders sank by 8.1% instead of just by 1.8% while the current account surplus was smaller than expected at 1.84T JPY. The Economy Watchers Sentiment index is due next and a fall from 51.3 to 50.7 is eyed.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Kiwi got its wings back when the RBNZ kept rates on hold as expected while adjusting its forecast for hitting the inflation target earlier. This also meant an adjustment to their OCR interest rate forecasts. Acting Governor Spencer also assured that government changes would have little effect on economic conditions. Chinese CPI readings turned out better than expected, which is also supporting the Kiwi at the moment, while US crude oil inventories rose by 2.2 million barrels instead of falling by 2.5 million.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     
  20. katetrades

    katetrades Master Trader

    2,312
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    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 10, 2017)

    USD

    The US dollar was mostly weaker against its peers as the Senate version of the tax plan differed with that of the House. This signals that it would take much longer than initially expected before any of these are implemented, especially since Senate is also proposing a one-year delay for the cuts. US banks are closed for the holiday today but the UoM preliminary consumer sentiment index is still up for release and analysts are expecting to see an increase from 100.7 to 100.8.

    EUR

    The euro got a boost from upgraded forecasts by the EU, which supported the idea of tapering next year and possibly an interest rate hike later on. ECB member Coeure also had a testimony with hawkish remarks suggesting that QE cannot go on indefinitely. Data also turned out better than expected as the German trade balance showed a surplus of 21.8 billion EUR versus the estimated 21.0 billion EUR figure. French industrial production and private payrolls are due next, along with Italian industrial production data.

    GBP

    The pound was dragged lower by the usual slew of Brexit concerns and the possibility of delaying the trade talks to next year. UK manufacturing production data is due today and analysts are expecting to see a 0.3% uptick while industrial production could also post a 0.3% gain. The goods trade balance and NIESR GDP estimate are also lined up.

    CHF

    The franc ticked higher during the London session as risk aversion was present but gave up some of its ground to the commodity currencies later on. The Swiss jobless rate came in line with expectations at 3.1%. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so the franc could be sensitive to market sentiment.

    JPY

    The yen had a mixed run as the lack of top-tier data left it vulnerable to currency-specific factors. The tertiary industry activity index is up for release next and analysts are expecting to see a 0.1% dip. Yen price action could also hinge on risk sentiment and bond yields from here.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The Loonie was able to hold on to its gains, thanks to dollar weakness and the continued strength in crude oil prices. Rumors that the crown prince of Saudi Arabia will take the throne soon reinforced the anti-corruption crackdown, which has been positive for the commodity. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
     

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