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Technical Analysis
Daily Market Analysis by HotForex
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[QUOTE="HotForex, post: 81402, member: 33561"] [b]GBPNZD Ranging Above Support[/b] [IMG]http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/GBPNZD-W.png[/IMG] [B]GBPNZD, Weekly[/B] The pair has just recently moved higher from weekly support level 1.9379 while another one supported price at 1.9244 sent price higher in the beginning of January. For the last three to four weeks price has been bouncing between this support and a resistance created by a weekly low (at 2.000) from December last year. Stochastics is oversold and price action takes place near lower Bollinger Bands suggesting the pair should have more upside than downside potential. On the bearish side however I should mention the fact that the pair creates lower weekly highs suggesting selling pressure coming in at fairly close to the support. This is not a very bullish sign and could lead to further consolidation at support or eventually price breaking lower. [IMG]http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/GBPNZD-D.png[/IMG] [B]GBPNZD, Daily[/B] Price is reacting lower from a resistance at 1.9700. This resistance is created by a daily pivot candle from April 7th and coincides with a 50% Fibonacci level at 1.9691. Stochastics are pointing higher and the RSI has created a higher low while the latest low at 1.9380 was roughly equal to the low from March this year. This bullish divergence supports the upside bias but the price needs to break above the current resistance in order to create a higher high. Should the pair keep on making lower pivotal highs the pressure against the support would increase and the support could break. It is therefore essential to follow the price action over the coming days. [IMG]http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/GBPNZD-240.png[/IMG] [B]GBPNZD, 240 min[/B] The four hour picture shows in more detail how price has been reacting to the resistance and other technical factors. Price has broken out of the downward sloping channel but has then run into a resistance. After this the pair created a pivot from which it has now reacted lower but has been (over the last two complete bars) been supported by the channel high and a 50 period moving average. Stochastics, RSI and MFI have all rolled over confirming that there isn’t much upside movement or momentum over the last few bars. This suggests the best (low risk) buying opportunities would be at lower levels. As per usual it makes sense to be a buyer at a support and look for selling opportunities at resistances. [B]Conclusion[/B] Long term picture (next four to six weeks) suggests that this market has more upside than downside potential as it is trading near an important support area and has been consolidating above it. However, should this sideways movement keep on for an extended period of time the probability that the market will move lower does increase. Also, I don’t like the fact that we have lower weekly highs. This kind of price action is not bullish as it suggests indecisiveness in this market. We would need to see price starting to build a series of higher lows and breaking above the previous weekly highs in order to get a confirmation for the upside biased long term view. The short term picture (from intraday to next few days) has a bullish element as it has broken out of the downward channel but price is currently trading just below a resistance level. As we should always look for selling opportunities at resistance levels and buying opportunities at supports I am keeping an eye on smaller time frame sell signals at 240 min Bollinger Bands and look for buy signals in the region of 1.9460 support. [B]Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex[/B] [B]Disclaimer[/B]: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument. [/QUOTE]
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