Daily market analysis and financial news by Vesta Trader

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Aug 21, 2014
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The US dollar hammered all major currencies and precious metals yesterday after the FOMC meeting minutes were released. The highlight of the report was the hawkish stance of the Fed members. This change in shift caught the attention of the function of forex exchange market and the US dollar buyers took charge. GOLD was seen trading lower after the release and traded as low as $1272. Let’s see what can be the simple forex strategy in the short term for GOLD.

Technically, there was an important sliding channel on the one hour chart for GOLD pair, which was broken recently. GOLD is now trading below the all-important $1300 support level. Currently, the yellow metal buyers are trying to take the prices higher, which can be seen as a part of the correction. If the prices correct a bit higher from the current levels and trades closer to the broken support area of $1284, then sellers are likely to appear. The 38.2% fib retracement level of the last drop from the $1302 high to $1272 low also sits around the mentioned area. So, the chance of sellers appearing is more in the short term.

GOLD 08.21.2014

On the downside, initial support can be seen around the last low of $1272. A lot would depend on the incoming data in the US whether GOLD can break the recent low or not. A break below the same might take GOLD towards the $1260 level.


This post first appeared on the Vesta Trader Blog
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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USDCAD Breaks Uptrend Ahead Of Inflation Data

The US dollar traded higher against the Canadian dollar yesterday. However, the Canadian dollar sellers seem to be nervous ahead of key risk events lined up during the NY session. The Canadian consumer price index and retail sales data will be published. Both these events are likely to impact the Canadian dollar to a certain extent according to many free forex signals online. The Canadian dollar is trading higher intraday in anticipation of a better than expected outcome. The USDCAD pair broke an important support area, which is a bearish call ahead of the economic data. If the outcome stays in line with the forecast, then the pair might continue trading lower.

Technically, there was an important bullish trend line on the hourly chart for the USDCAD pair, which was breached recently. However, the pair found the 100 moving average on the downside. It looks like the pair is again trading higher and currently testing the mentioned broken trend line. It would be interesting to see whether the pair can manage to break it again to trade higher or not. If it fails to break it, then a move back towards the 100 moving average is possible in the short term. There are several support levels on the way down for the pair, starting with the 200 moving average, which also coincides with the 50% fib level of the last leg higher from the 1.0859 low.

USDCAD-08.22.2014-1024x500.png




USDCAD 08.22.2014

On the upside, initial resistance can be seen around the last swing high of 1.0985. If buyers manage to clear it then more gains are possible moving ahead.
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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USDJPY – Short Term Correction Possible

The US dollar traded higher against the Japanese yen during this past week, and managed to break the 104.00 resistance area. The pair has opened with a small gap up during this week, and climbed as high as 104.26. However, the upside looks like extended in the short term, and there is a possibility of a minor correction as the function of foreign exchange market suggests. The best forex strategy ever is to wait for the right time and right levels to enter into the market. So, if the pair falls a bit lower from the current levels, then one might consider buying in the near term.

Technically, there is an expanding triangle formed on the hourly chart for the USDJPY pair, which recently acted as a resistance earlier during the Asian session. The pair is currently trading lower, and it is possible that it might trade towards the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg higher from the 103.49 low to 104.26 high. So, the 103.85-75 levels might act as a strong support for the pair, and buyers are likely to appear around the mentioned support area. There is a minor divergence on the hourly RSI as well, which might take the pair a bit lower from the current levels.

USDJPY 08.25.2014
USDJPY-08.25.2014-1024x499.png

On the upside, initial resistance can be seen around the last swing high of 104.26. Any further strength might take the pair towards the 104.50 resistance area. On the downside, the 103.85-75 levels remain a nice support area.
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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US Dollar Likely To Trade Higher Against Swiss Franc

The US dollar opened with a small gap higher against the Swiss franc this week. The US dollar sellers yesterday tried to close the opening week gap, and as a result the USDCHF pair traded a touch lower. The pair traded as low as 0.9141, which acted as a support for the pair. However, the pair is struggling to find traction, which means there is a chance of a push lower in the short term. The US durable goods orders data and the CB consumer confidence data will be released later during the NY session, which might act as a catalyst for the pair.

Technically, there is an important bullish trend line on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair. The mentioned trend line is just above the 100 hourly moving average, which increases the importance of the bullish trend line. Moreover, it also coincides with the 50% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 0.9105 low to 0.9178 high. So, if the pair dips from the current levels, then there is a possibility that it might find buyers around the 0.9140-30 support area. Only a break below the 100 hourly moving average might cause a major correction in the pair.

USDCHF 08.26.2014
USDCHF-08.26.2014-1024x503.png

On the upside, initial resistance can be seen around the 0.9160 level, followed by the recent high of 0.9178. Any further strength might take the pair towards the next major hurdle around the 0.9200 handle, according to simple forex strategy.
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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Euro Might Break Higher Against New Zealand Dollar

The Euro has struggled recently against most major currencies, but managed to hold the ground against the New Zealand dollar. The main reason for this is the weakness of the New Zealand dollar. The recent economic data came on the negative side, and increased bearish pressure on the currency buyers according to the Forex trading coaches. One of the examples is the New Zealand trade balance data which was released earlier during the Asian session. The report published mentions that the New Zealand trade balance registered a trade deficit of 692M, more than the Forex market expected. The EURNZD pair was seen trading a touch higher after the release.

Technically, there is an important bullish trend line on the 4 hour chart of the EURNZD pair. The mentioned trend line was responsible for holding the downside in the pair recently. Moreover, there is a bearish trend line, which is acting as a hurdle for the pair on the upside. There is a possibility that the pair might dip from the current levels. If that happens, then it could find support around the 100 moving average, which is sitting just above the 50% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 1.5708 low to 1.5863 high. It is around this level the Euro buyers might reappear to take the pair higher again.

EURNZD 08.26.2014
EURNZD-08.26.2014-1024x499.png

On the upside, initial resistance can be seen around the last high of 1.5863 i.e. around the bearish trend line. If the pair breaks the highlighted trend line then a move towards the 1.5900 resistance level is possible.
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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EURUSD Struggling To Close Opening Week Gap

he Euro was hammered recently against the US dollar, as the EURUSD pair traded below the 1.3200 support area. Moreover, the pair opened with a gap lower this week, and has struggled to close the gap. Earlier during the Asian session, the pair traded lower and created a new monthly low, according to forex profit system. It is likely that the pair might continue trading lower, but a short-term correction cannot be denied from the current levels. The German GFK consumer climate was published during the London session, which missed the expectation and registered a reading of 8.6, down from 8.9.

Technically, there was an important bearish trend line on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which the pair is trying to break as of writing. Currently, it is testing the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.3295 high to 1.3151 low. So, if the pair manages to settle above the mentioned trend line and resistance area, then a move towards the open gap is possible. So, the 1.3220-30 area can be considered as a selling zone according to free forex signals online, as the 50% fib retracement level and 100 hourly moving average sit around the same level.

EURUSD 08.26.2014
EURUSD-08.26.2014-1024x503.png

On the downside, initial support can be seen around the last low of 1.3151. Any further losses can take the pair towards the 1.3120 support area where buyers might reappear. Overall, selling rallies with caution in the short term can be a good option.
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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Amazon To Get A Boost Post Twitch Deal

Amazon, one of the international electronic commerce giants recently purchased a company knows as Twitch. Not many people are aware of this company, but I think most game lovers might be aware of it. This company is better known as Twitch.tv, and is an online video streaming service which streams video games. So, one can watch a person playing a video game on the company’s website. It has recently gained a lot of popularity.

Initially, there were rumors that the online search giant Google was going to buy Twitch. Later on, there was a news suggesting that both Amazon and Google are in the race of buying the video streaming company. Finally, it was announced recently that the Twitch was bought by Amazon for $970 million. One must be thinking that Amazon was crazy putting in so much money for a developing website. However, if we go by the Bloomberg survey then this sector is going to get a lot of boost in the coming years. So, considering that fact, Amazon might have done a right thing. This might lift the investors’ confidence in the medium term.

iiYweE9F_9RE
iiYweE9F_9RE.png

Technically, Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) traded in a range. On the upside, resistance is around the $345 level, and on the downside support is around the $335 level. So, one can consider buying around the mentioned support keeping short term objectives in mind or holding it for a bit longer in the medium term.
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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Simple Forex Strategy – Aussie Likely To Trade Lower

The Australian dollar has shown a lot of resiliency against the US dollar compared to any other major currencies. The AUDUSD pair recently traded above the 0.9360 level, but failed to break the 0.9370-80 resistance level, which means there is a chance that the pair might continue trading lower in the short term if we consider simple forex strategy. The pair earlier during the Asian session broke an important support area, which might encourage the Australian dollar sellers in the short term as per price action forex trading.

Technically, there was an important bullish trend line on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which the pair broke during the Asian session. However, the pair is trying to turn higher again and retesting the broken trend line as of writing. If the pair fails to trade higher, then there is a high probability of it trading lower in the short term. On the downside, initial support can be seen around the 100 hourly moving average, which also coincides with the 50% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 0.9270 low to 0.9373 high. Any further losses might call for a test of the 200 hourly moving average.

AUDUSD 08.29.2014
AUDUSD-08.29.2014-1024x499.png

On the other hand, there is also a chance that the recent break might turn out to be a false one. In that situation, it would be interesting to see if the pair could manage to break the last high of 0.9373 or not.
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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Can US Dollar Provide One More Buying Opportunity?

The US dollar was seen trading higher against a few major currencies, including the Swiss franc. The USDCHF pair about an hour ago challenged the 0.9200 resistance area, but failed to gain momentum above the mentioned level. Yesterday, was a holiday in the US which caused mostly ranging moves in the US dollar, but earlier during the Asian session it again found buyers and as a result the USDCHF pair traded higher. There is a very important economic release scheduled later during the London session. The Swiss GDP data will be published, which might impact the USDCHF pair in the short term.

Technically, there is an important bullish trend line on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, which holds a lot of importance as it coincides with two very significant hourly simple moving averages i.e. 100 and 200. Currently, the pair is flirting with the 1.236 extension of the last drop from the 0.9184 high to 0.9125 low. So, there is a chance of a move lower in the pair towards the 0.9170-60 support area. In that situation, it can be seen as a buying opportunity. However, there is no sign of a correction from the indicators such as RSI and MACD.

USDCHF 09.02.2014
USDCHF-09.02.2014-1024x503.png

Overall, as long as the pair is trading above the highlighted bullish trend line, then buying retraces look like a wise option. Remember, the 100 hourly moving average is also an important pivot zone for the pair.
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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Apple Introducing Payment System?

Apple, one of the tech giants is in the news for many reasons these days. The most talking points as of now are iPhone6 and iWatch. The tech giant is rumored to launch these two devices during the second week of September, precisely on September 9th, 2014. The company’s stock AAPL (CFD) is trading higher from the last few days, and recently broke the 100.00 level. Both these devices are highly anticipated and many investors are waiting patiently for the launch of these two devices. We need to see how the devices shape up and impact the company’s stock in the near term.

There is one more rumor which is circulating these days, and the rumor is that the company is also expected to introduce a new payment system on September 9th, 2014. It will be a new mobile feature that the company will introduce along with the iPhone 6. So, there will be something new in the device, which can make life easy for many people looking for simple and solid payment systems. Let’s see whether the rumor is true or not in the coming days.
apple.jpg

appleTechnically, company’s stock AAPL (CFD) trade above the 100.00 level recently, and currently trading around the 102.50 level. There is a very solid trend line and support forming around the 100.00-98.00 levels, which I think might act as a swing zone in the near term. So, if the prices dip a bit from the current levels, then the mentioned levels can be considered as a buy zone.
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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Euro Making An Attempt To Push Higher?

The Euro consolidated briefly against the US dollar yesterday, and managed to sustain more losses despite solid US ISM manufacturing PMI, which was released yesterday. Today, during the London session, the Euro zone services PMI was released. The forecast was slated for no change from 53.5. However, the outcome was a touch disappointing, as the Euro zone services PMI fell to 53.1. This stalled the correction in the EURUSD pair, according to the Forex profit system. There is no major market moving event scheduled in the US today. So, there is a chance of a short term recovery in the EURUSD pair.

Technically, there was an important bearish trend line on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which was broken earlier during the London session. However, after the disappointing services PMI data the pair failed to gain any momentum. As of writing, the pair is again trading around the broken trend line, and the Euro buyers are fighting to keep the pair above the same. If the pair manages to bounce from the current levels, then it might move towards the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.3219 high to 1.3109 low. Any further gains could take the pair towards the 200 hourly moving average.

EURUSD 09.03.2014
EURUSD-09.03.2014-1024x497.png

Alternatively, if the pair fails to sustain the broken trend line, then the 1.3120 support level might come into play. A break lower could take the pair towards the 1.3109 low.
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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US Dollar Might Dive Against Canadian Dollar

The US dollar traded lower against the Canadian dollar yesterday after the Bank of Canada kept the interest rates at 1%. However, the decline in the USDCAD pair stalled around the 1.0870 support area, and currently the pair is correcting higher. There are a couple of important economic releases lined up later during the NY session in the US, including the US ADP nonfarm payroll employment change and the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI. If the outcome misses the expectations, then the US dollar might come under pressure in the short term according to free Forex signals online services.

Technically, there is an up-move channel formed on the hourly chart of the USDCAD pair, which is very narrow and can be breached anytime. The pair is heading towards the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.0941 high to 1.0870 low. So, there is a chance that the pair might struggle to break higher in the short term. In that situation, a break below the channel support area might ignite loses towards the 100 hourly moving average. Any further downside acceleration might take the pair towards the last low of 1.0870.

USDCAD 09.04.2014

Alternatively, if the pair breaks higher and settles above the 61.8% fib level, then a run towards the last high of 1.0941 is possible in the short term. In that case, it would be interesting to see whether the pair can manage to break the previous high or not. Staying sidelines preferred in the near term.
USDCAD-09.04.2014-1024x500.png
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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Aussie Resilient As US Dollar Outperforms

The US dollar surged higher against most major currencies yesterday, including the Euro, the British pound, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. The currency which showed a lot of resiliency against the US dollar was the Australian dollar signalling the best forex strategy for consistent profits. The worst performer was the Euro, as it blasted lower after the ECB decided to cut rates from 0.15% to 0.05%. The Euro moved more than 250 lower against the US dollar yesterday. The AUDUSD pair showed a lot of resiliency yesterday despite positive news releases in the US. The pair is likely to continue trading higher, according to the forex correlation strategy.

Technically, there was a bearish trend line, which held the upside in the pair. However, there is one most important thing to note from the charts is that the pair is likely forming a breakout pattern i.e. the inverse head and shoulders pattern as can be seen below. The neckline is around the last swing high of 0.9390. So, if the pair manages to break the mentioned level, then it could open the doors for further upside acceleration towards the 0.9500 level.

AUDUSD 09.05.2014
AUDUSD-09.05.2014-1024x504.png

Alternatively, if the pair fails to break higher, then on the downside support is around the 100 hourly moving average, which is currently around the 0.9325 level. Any further loses should be limited as the 200 hourly moving average also sits around the same area. The RSI is also above the 50 mark, which is a positive sign.
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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USDJPY Remains Supported Despite Overbought Readings

The US dollar climbed higher against almost all major currencies, including the Japanese yen. The USDJPY pair traded as high as 105.70 during this past week. However, after the disappointing nonfarm payrolls data the US dollar fell below the 105.00 level. The USDJPY retraced after the decline, but failed to break an important resistance area. There is no major economic release lined up during the upcoming session, which means that the pair could likely trade according to the market sentiment, and simple Forex strategy.

Technically, there is an important bullish trend line formed on the 1 hour chart of the USDJPY pair, which held the downside in the pair on Friday. The pair is now back above the 100 moving average, which might continue to act as a support for the pair in the near term according to the best Forex strategy for consistent profits. A push lower might call for a retest of the highlighted trend line, which could act as a pivot zone for the pair. A break below might take the pair towards the 200 moving average. The hourly RSI is struggling to break above the 50 mark, which is not a good sign for the US dollar bulls.

USDJPY 09.08.2014
USDJPY-09.08.2014-1024x500.png

Alternatively, if the pair climbs higher, then it might find resistance around the last high of 105.70. Any further strength could take the pair towards the all-important 106.00 handle. Any sharp gains should be limited considering that the pair is already trading around elevated levels.
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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0.8350 Is Bull-Bear Line In NZDUSD

The New Zealand dollar is in downtrend against the US dollar since the start of the previous month. On last Friday, the NZDUSD pair managed to spike towards the 0.8340 level, but failed to gain momentum above the stated level. The pair opened this week with a minor gap lower, and now trying to head higher according to the forex trading coaches. However, there is a monster resistance around the 0.8340-50 levels, which might ignite one more down leg in the pair. The New Zealand Manufacturing Sales data was released during the Asian session today by the Statistics New Zealand. The outcome was not on the positive side of the NZDUSD pair.

Technically, there is an important bearish trend line formed on the 1 hour chart of the NZDUSD pair, which held the upside in the pair on Friday. Currently, the pair is trading around the 100 moving average, and struggling to pierce the 200 hourly moving average. Moreover, the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.8406 high to 0.8268 low also sits just below the highlighted bearish trend line. So, there are a lot of resistance areas on the way up for the pair, which increases the chance of one more leg lower in the pair.

NZDUSD 09.08.2014
NZDUSD-09.08.2014-1024x499.png

On the downside, initial support can be seen around the swing low of 0.8280, followed by the 0.8265 level. Any further losses could take the pair lower towards the 0.8220 support area in the near term.
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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AUDNZD Likely To Challenge 1.1180

The Australian dollar outperformed the New Zealand dollar recently, and traded as high as 1.1296. The AUDNZD pair is correcting since then, and broke an important support area to trade lower. The Australia’s home loans data was published during the Asian session, which missed the expectation by a fair margin. The outcome came in at 0.3% gain whereas the market was expecting a 1% rise. This is weighing on the Australian dollar, and as a result the AUDNZD might find sellers in the short term, according to the simple Forex strategy.

Technically, there was a critical bullish trend line on the hourly chart of AUDNZD pair, which was breached recently. The pair also broke the 100 hourly moving average, which can be considered as a negative sign. Currently, the pair is trying to bounce from the 50% fib retracement level of the move higher from the 1.1120 low to 1.1296 high. However, it is likely to find sellers around the broken 100 hourly moving average. This situation might also increase the possibility of a head and shoulder pattern formation on the hourly chart. The hourly RSI is also below the 50 mark, which might put a lot of pressure on the Aussie bulls in the short term.

AUDNZD 09.09.2014
AUDNZD-09.09.2014-1024x501.png

On the downside, support is around the 200 hourly moving average, followed by the 61.8% fib level. Any further losses in the AUDNZD pair would largely depend on the strength of the New Zealand dollar moving ahead.
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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McDonald Sales Dive In August, Caution Ahead

McDonald, one of the biggest fast-food giants and world’s largest restaurant chain suffered a setback recently. The company monthly sales data of August 2014 was recently released. The outcome was a surprising one, the report suggested that the sales fell around 3.7% in August. This is one of the worst declines the company has seen in the past several months. This fall was mainly driven by the decline in sales in the Asian region.

Now, there is no surprise that the Asia was one of the main contributors in the fall. The key thing which impacted the sales was the recent meat scandal. That scandal of expired meat has caused a lot of worries for the company, and the price they had to pay is big. This highlights the weakness and challenges McDonald might face in the coming months. Such news and impact take time for healing, and it is even possible that sales plunge more in the coming weeks. We just need to wait and see how the market reacts to this news.

McDonald
McDonald.jpg

Technically, company’s stock MCD is already trading lower, as the investor’s doesn’t seem to be liking the fall in the sales. The stock is down by more than 1.5%, and is currently around the $91.10 level. There is a monster support around the $90.00. We need to keep a close eye on the mentioned level, and hope that the price does not settle below it. A close below the stated support level might be deadly in the near term.
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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Aussie Dives Against US dollar; Eyes 0.9000

The Australian dollar collapsed recently not only against the US dollar, but also against a few other major currencies including the Euro and the British pound. The AUDUSD pair broke an important support area, which might encourage the Aussie sellers to take the pair further lower as per simple forex strategy. The meltdown in GOLD is also not helping the pair, and putting further pressure. The Aussie bulls are fighting hard, but failed to hold the downside in the pair. The US retail sales data is lined up later during the NY session, which can cause swing moves in the pair.

Technically, there was an important sliding channel on the daily chart of the AUDUSD pair, which was broken earlier during this week by the Aussie dollar sellers. The pair is even trading below the 100-day moving average, which suggest more downside is possible in the near term as per the best forex strategy for consistent profits. Moreover, the pair has breached the 50% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 0.8659 low to 0.9495 high. So, it might be heading towards the 61.8% fib level, which is just above the 0.9000 level. Any further downside could lead the pair towards the 0.8900 support area.

AUDUSD 09.12.2014
AUDUSD-09.12.2014-1024x500.png

On the upside, the broken channel support area might act as a resistance in the near term, which also coincides with the 200-day moving average around the 0.9180 levels. For other related articles check our forex correlation strategy.
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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A Short Term Correction Likely in USDJPY

The US dollar registered massive gains against the Japanese yen during this past week, as the latter one lost a lot of ground against almost all other major currencies. There was a massive resistance around the 107.00 level, according to the Forex trading coach which was broken this past week. The US industrial production data will be released during the NY session today, which is expected to register a 0.3% gain, down from the previous reading of 0.4%. If the outcome comes out positive, then the US dollar might gain more bids against the Japanese yen in the near term.

Technically, there is an important bullish trend line on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair. The US dollar buyers are struggling to hold the trend line, as the pair is currently flirting around the mentioned trend line. If the pair managed to successfully close below the trend line, then there is a chance of a short-term correction. On the downside, initial support is around an important confluence area of 100 hourly moving average and 50% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 106.03 low to 107.37 high. The RSI is also around the 50 mark, and a break below the same might ignite for more losses in the short term.

USDJPY 09.15.2014
USDJPY-09.15.2014-1024x503.png

On the upside, the previous high of 107.37 might continue to act as a hurdle for the pair. If the US dollar buyers manage to clear the same, then there is a chance of a move towards the 107.60-80 levels.
 

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Aug 21, 2014
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Euro Remains a Buy on Dips Against Swiss Franc

The Euro finally managed to jump higher against the Swiss franc during this past after trading as low as 1.2043. One of the main reasons for the gains in the EURCHF pair was the Swiss National Bank mentioning the possibility of negative rates. The central bank reiterated that the Swiss franc is overvalued and they cannot afford it to happen in the near term. The EURCHF pair traded back above the 1.2080 and cleared an important resistance, which has opened the doors for further upside acceleration according to simple Forex strategy.

Technically, there is a monster trend line forming on the hourly chart of the EURCHF pair, which might ignite one more leg higher if the pair falls closer to the mentioned trend line. However, there are several other support levels on the way down for the pair, starting with the 100 hourly moving average and followed by the 200 hourly moving average. The most critical support is around the 1.2075-80 levels, where the 200 hourly moving average and the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last move from the 1.2043 are sitting. So, if the pair dips from the current levels, then a solid buying interest might be seen around the mentioned area.

EURCHF 09.15.2014
EURCHF-09.15.2014-1024x503.png

On the upside, the 1.2100 level is a major hurdle for EURCHF pair. If the pair manages to close above the mentioned level, then there is a chance of a move towards the 1.2150 level in the near term.