June-16, 2022, Daily latest currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.
EUR/USD advances above the 1.0400-1.0500 range, and it is trading with gains of 0.68% during the New York session, at around 1.0509 at the time of writing.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The EUR/USD daily chart depicts the pair as downward biased unless it recovers the 1.0800 mark. Furthermore, the Relative Strenght Index at 43 remains in negative territory, despite Tuesday’s jump, which propelled the consolidation in the EUR/USD.
The EUR/USD 1-hour chart depicts the pair trading above a double bottom neckline in the near term. However, the last candle shows price exhaustion, and with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67.66 accelerating toward overbought conditions, a pullback towards the neckline around 1.0470 is on the cards. That said, the EUR/USD will find some resistance levels at the R1 daily pivot at 1.0512, followed by the double bottom target at 1.0550.
The Canadian Dollar slipped more than 1.2% against the US Dollar this week with USD/CAD surging back into a critical resistance pivot on the heels of a 75 basis point hike from the FOMC. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable while below this threshold and we’re on the lookout for possible price inflection here this week. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly technical price chart.
Initial weekly support now rests with the June 6th weekly reversal close at 1.2784 and the 61.8% retracement at the 1.27-handle- we’ll reserve this threshold as our medium-term bullish invalidation level. A topside breach / close above 1.3023 is needed to validate resumption of the broader uptrend with such a scenario exposing subsequent resistance objectives at the 75% parallel (currently ~1.3120) and the 100% extension of the 2021 advance at 1.3230- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
The Russian rouble and stocks gained on Thursday, as the head of the central bank said the currency would remain free-floating and that capital controls should continue to be relaxed.
At 1435 GMT, the rouble was 0.7% stronger against the dollar at 56.61 and had gained 1.4% to trade at 58.96 versus the euro.
Russian stocks also pushed higher in trading in Moscow.
The dollar-denominated RTS index was up 2.3% to 1,309.7 points. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index was 1.6% higher at 2,355.2 points.
The USDJPY broke below its 200 hour moving average today and buyers turned to sellers. Recall from yesterday, the 200 hour moving average did stall the fall, and not led to a bounce back higher in the Asian session.
The price bounce in the Asian session did extend back above its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above at 134.402 currently), but could not maintain momentum.
The SNB surprise rate decision, sent the pair through the 200 hour moving average and down to a low at 132.304. That tested the intraday swing low from June 7 at 132.306. So far the level is holding, but on a break, the 38.2% retracement at 132.05 would next be targeted, followed by a swing area at 131.24 – 131.345.
The GBP/USD pair witnessed a short-covering bounce on Thursday and rallied nearly 150 pips from the 1.2040 area, or the daily low touched in the aftermath of the Bank of England policy decision. The momentum pushed spot prices to a three-day high, around the 1.2280-1.2285 region during the early North American session.